Many Canuck fans believe the Canucks will be Stanley Cup contenders in two to three years, I completely disagree.
IMO the Canucks are not even close to contending for a Stanley Cup and unless they drastically change their approach, they won’t be any time soon. As far as making the playoffs, well that depends. If the NHL is going with a conference format, it will be very difficult, but in a divisional playoff format, it should be quite a bit easier. Ultimately it doesn’t matter though because it is very unlikely THIS team will be getting by the likes of Vegas, Colorado etc. in a seven game series any time soon. Sure we beat Minnesota and St. Louis last year, but as much as this year was a result of the pandemic, lets not kid ourselves last year was too. The constant playoff failures of Toronto and Edmonton (while amusing to Canuck fans) should be a warning. We are not in a much better position (if at all) than either of them.
So why do I have such a pessimistic outlook for a team that clearly has some dynamic young talent? Miller, Pettersson, Hughes, Horvat, Demko, Boeser, Hoglander and Podkolzin all are significant pieces to varying degrees, so this team should be good right??? Well yes and no. Managements rush to get this team back to being a playoff contender has come at significant cost in several ways.
1. Trading away young players and picks for veterans has stunted the organizations talent pool.
2. Failing to trade veterans for picks/prospects at the TDL over the years has also limited the organizations talent pool.
3. Extremely poor cap management has hindered the organizations ability to use cap flexibility to the teams’ advantage.
Where the impetus for this foolish approach came from is irrelevant, however it has left the Canucks in a difficult position. Once Podkolzin arrives in the NHL, the Canucks have zero projected top 6 forwards or top 4 defensemen remaining on the prospect vine. NONE, NADDA, ZIP. Sure there are some interesting players (and maybe 1 or 2 surprises), but all are projected as bottom 6 forwards or bottom pairing defensemen if they become NHLers at all. Considering how many holes there are still left to fill on this roster, that is extremely problematic. The cardinal rule of building a champion is to start with drafting and finish with trades and free agents. Benning has done the opposite of that.
The Canucks roster as it stands is extremely flawed. Many players are slotted at least one level higher in the lineup than they should be, to the detriment of the team as a whole. The top six lacks an elite winger if not two and the bottom 6 is very poorly constructed and over paid. The team also lack lacks two centers. The right side of the defence seems to be a poor fit with the young puck moving LD and the defence as a whole lacks true defenders with size. The addition of physical, defensive minded RD would seem to be a more optimal than the current mix.
This is how I see the current team:
FORWARDS Pettersson ( #1 center), Boeser ( 2nd line winger with upside), Miller (Mid 1st line winger or elite 2nd line winger/center), Horvat (Elite shutdown/ match up center), Hoglander (match up winger w 2nd line potential), Podkolzin (match up winger w 2nd line potential), Pearson (match up winger, ultimately a 4th liner), Motte (4th line), Highmore/MacEwen/Hawryluk (energy guys) Lind (maybe middle six – TBD) Lockwood (bottom 6 TBD), Beagle/Roussel/Eriksson (final year)
So how does this team get to the next step and sustain it for the long term?? The organization needs to identify those players who are NOT LONG TERM fits for this organization in terms of skill set and contractual status and utilize them to add young players that fill immediate needs and future picks to quickly add to the prospect group.
TRADE CHIPS?
Miller, 28, a UFA in two years that absolutely should not be resigned. The money and term will not be a good long term fit. Miller is an ideal player for a team in the win now phase and is worth a 1st rounder, young player and prospect. Boston and Carolina are both great fits for him with Lauzon and Bean the desirable core pieces in any return.
Schmidt, 29, a decent 2nd pairing D man (easier to move than Myers) with the same skill set that is prevalent on LD. He can be a good fit on a number of other teams and should get back a second rounder and a roster player (but more likely a third rounder and a roster player). New Jersey is a great fit for them/him and Vancouver.
Holtby, 31, had his moments and while erratic, may be a fit in Nashville, Buffalo or again New Jersey. The return would be negligible. More likely a buyout candidate.
Motte, 26, UFA next year, a fan favourite and good 4th liner is probably worth a 4th rounder or maybe 3rd rounder. Motte adds value in a trade for a cap dump to increase the return.
Boeser, 24, will be a RFA next year. He is easily worth a 1st and a high end RD prospect plus a pick/prospect. Only moving him if the return is perfect and contract talks indicate he is no longer a fit here.
Myers, 31, good third pairing D man, good mix of offence and defence, but over played and over paid. Would love to move him before Schmidt, but he probably has less value. Expose in the ED and move in the future with some retention for a 3rd or 4th.
Keep Lind/Lockwood/Juolevi keep until their ceiling/fit is determined, Highmore/MacEwen/Hawryluk are all moveable, Beagle/Roussel/Eriksson probably not.
At the end of the day, this team will have more/better forward depth but less high end talent and the D is still a work in progress. The plus is the added youth and Cap flexibility plus some added draft picks. In 4-5 years this team will be ready to truly compete plus have the ability and cap space to add free agents and trade for the final missing pieces.
I don't think that's nearly enough return to take Johnson back. Colton and Motte is basically a 1 for 1 swap of bottom 6 guys. So you're looking at Ferlands LTIR for Johnson and a 3rd.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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