Another year, another 1st round exit unfortunately. However this team showed some fight and a different type of play style in the final 3 games that leads to some optimism for the future. I think there's a good possibility that one of the core 4 is moved (likely Nylander), but after seeing how dominant they can be in playoffs it might be the right thing to do and take the hard road and stick with them again. I don't believe Kyle Dubas, Sheldon Keefe, or Brendan Shanahan's job will be on the line - they built a top team and just happened to draw the back-to-back champs in the first round. That being said, I could see some changes like this being made this off-season so I'll try to break it down as best as I can (read trade descriptions for those details)
Step 1: Coaching staff generally stays the same. 4th best team in the regular season, top PP with a top 10 PK unit, and a hard fought 7 game series was pretty well coached. Steve Briere needs to be fired. He did nothing to help the goaltending when the team needed it for 2-3 months and after seeing Andersen decline in every season since he was in Toronto, it seems pretty clear that a new voice is needed. Hire Steve McKichan - he currently runs the FuturePro goalie school and is great at developing goalies. He was a former goalie coach of the Leafs when Belfour was around, but he works better with younger goalies. McKichan has trained Campbell before in his FuturePro school and I think would work well with the acquired Blackwood in this situation to regain his form.
Step 2: Clear cap space as needed. Mrazek and Holl will likely be dealt. I could see Kerfoot hanging around but in this situation more space was needed so he had to be moved. Unfortunately this team will always pay the "Toronto tax" and when it comes to moving guys out they likely get lower return - take the cap space and move on.
Step 3: Draft day - continue to aim for high end skill and look to move back where possible. Rutger McGoarty would be a great pick up in the first round, I believe Toronto will pick around #26 so he should be available. He has a high skill level, can make and finish plays, creates off the perimeter but can still score form the interior areas, and uses his size well around the net to create space. He's coming out of the USNTDP system and is heading off to college so he'll have time to develop and take over as the 2C when Tavares eventually shifts to the wing - would love this pick for Toronto.
Step 4: No big free agents - focus on the RFA's and UFA's from this team.
Mikheyev (Rocco Grimaldi comparison contract)
Sandin (Neal Pionk comparison contract)
Liljegren (Ethan Bear comparison contract)
Campbell (Mrazek comparison contract)
From there, bring in low risk/high reward guys and utilize the AHL team as they have been.
Step 5: Let the young kids play. Part of developing is letting young guys fight through struggles. I think all of Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, and Steeves should make the roster out of camp. Let them learn the league and earn their minutes.
The three team trade for Arizona/Los Angeles/Toronto I could see somewhat breaking down like this:
To Los Angeles:
D - Jakob Chychrun
F - Alex Kerfoot
To Toronto:
D - Matt Roy (30% retained by Arizona)
To Arizona:
Retain 30% of Matt Roy's contract
F - Gabriel Vilardi
D - Helge Grans
F - Lias Andersson
2023 Toronto 1st round pick (top 5 protected)
2023 LA 2nd round pick (becomes 1st if LA reaches the 2023 Western Conference Finals)
It’s a huge price to pay but it’s helped by Toronto’s 1st. There’s going to be almost every team in the league interested so a team is going to overpay to get him.
Tough to read Dubas’ thoughts until the year end press conference is done but I think this is a good direction for the team.
Honestly don't expect much of a return for Mrazek, but don't expect it to cost a lot to move his salary either. Where people are going rant and complain here about "oh it costs more to dump Mrazek's $3.8m contract" - it actually shouldn't because if Toronto can't find a trade partner for him they can buy him out at a cap hit of just over $1m and that's the actual cap hit that they're paying to move.
Hawks are one of the teams that will need a goalie in the off-season and there was interest in him from them at the deadline.
2.
TOR
2022 3rd round pick (WSH)
2022 6th round pick (WSH)
WSH
2022 3rd round pick (WPG)
Additional Details:
*Draft day trade*
Leafs trade pick #78 to Washington for picks #84 and #180
I think a smart move for Dubas is to maintain the idea of a tandem goalie situation rather than riding one starter. To me it's pretty clear that Jack Campbell isn't consistent enough and too injury prone to be considered a bonafide starter - aside from the untimely goals he continues to give up. After moving on from Mrazek, a name that was circulated around at the deadline was Mackenzie Blackwood and I think a change of scenery would benefit him and the Devils. The price on him shouldn't be too high as he's been oft-injured frequently and doesn't have the best results over the past few seasons so I've based the price similar to the Vitek Vanecek trade to Washington and the Alex Nedeljkovic trade to Detroit (Vanecek returned a 2nd, Nedeljkovic returned a 3rd and rights to a UFA). I think in a better defensive system like Toronto that he could regain his form and provide them with a long term solution in net.
Voit may not be NHL yet, but he is the type of dynamic winger that New Jersey could use in their system. He had a great season with Sarnia and showed his ability to make his teammates around him better. Because of his value being at an all-time low I do see some retained salary as something that's plausible and I've compensated New Jersey with a pick and a high risk/high reward type of prospect in Villeneuve.
Simple cap freeing move type of deal here - Nashville could use a top 6 right hand shot on the back end and Toronto could use the cap space because Holl has been passed on the depth chart by younger guys that need the ice time for further development.
The big splash of the season comes in the way of a 3 team trade that sends Matt Roy to Toronto, and Jakob Chychrun to LA. The Kings have been highly linked to Chychrun since his name became available in trade talks and they have some good young prospects and players to get a deal done. It also seems like they could use some offence up front after their playoff series, so they add Alex Kerfoot as well in the deal. Toronto adds a shutdown right handed shot defenceman to play alongside Morgan Rielly for the foreseeable future, and solidifies their entire top 6 defence core with this move.
The Devils have goaltending issues as it is. I’m not sure about trading their only NHL goaltender for a prospect and pick, plus retaining salary. Makes more sense to just keep Blackwood or find a better trade
I like the Blackwood idea I think that is smart and Dubas should consider it. Also idk how Devils fans will feel about that.
Quoting: Tbrew
The Devils have goaltending issues as it is. I’m not sure about trading their only NHL goaltender for a prospect and pick, plus retaining salary. Makes more sense to just keep Blackwood or find a better trade
That one was tough to judge. But with the reported disagreements between Blackwood and the team (Blackwood hired a new agent apparently to help find a new start somewhere), I think he’s available. I’d think that New Jersey would find a goalie elsewhere anyways, but it seems like his time in New Jersey may be short
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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