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Are we ovethinking Tkachuks Value

Created by: iforgotmyname
Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 19, 2022
Published: Jul. 19, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Legend
Left Handed
Original Team
Waivers Exempt
Right Handed
Position
Trade Clause
Max Perf. Bonus
Expiry Status
Term Remaining
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
Waivers ExemptMcDavid, Connor
$12,500,000 (Performance Bonus$250,000)
C
NMC
UFA - 5
Description
Does Tkachuk carry more or less value than Fiala and Debrincat? From the player alone, I would say Tkachuk is by far the best one of the 3. However, (I could be wrong here) but I think Tkachuk's trade value is a lot lower than people are saying. Doesn't the arb filing mean he's a UFA next year anyways? At least with Fiala and Debrincat, the teams acquiring had RFA years left with both of them.

I think the trade for Tkachuk is going to involve a 1st rounder, a young roster player/top prospect, and 1 more piece. To me, I think Calgary has very very little leverage in a situation like this and I think if the devils were involved, it's 1 of 3 offers below. And if Calgary fans think this is a ridiculous lowball offer...look at the returns for the other 2 guys. Tkachuck is much better than both, but he's a UFA after this arb filing. So it's not going to be a King's Ransom. It's going to be very similar to Fiala and Debrincat returns.

And on another note, if the Flames are worried about Tkachuk getting offersheeted and that's why they filed for arb....4 1st round picks is worth that alone if Tkachuk is threatening to walk a year from now. Screw the whole '1st rounders are lottery tickets' because that's so damn far from the truth. 4 1st rounders gives you AMPLE amount of flexibility to construct your team how YOU want to. And there are great players in picks 16-32, or you could even trade those 1sts for NHL ready players.

Offers Below:
Trades
1.
NJD
  1. Tkachuk, Matthew [RFA Rights]
CGY
  1. Foote, Nolan
  2. Severson, Damon
  3. 2023 1st round pick (NJD)
2.
NJD
    Any Team, just need both off the roster
    3.
    NJD
      Matthew Tkachuk
      CGY
        2023 1st Round Pick
        2024 2nd Round Pick
        Yegor Sharangovich
        Shakir Mukhamadullin
        4.
        NJD
          Matthew Tkachuk
          CGY
            Alexander Holtz
            2024 2nd Round Pick
            Buyouts
            Recapture Fees
            DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
            2023
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            2024
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            2025
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            Logo of the NJD
            ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
            16$82,500,000$56,710,834$0$400,000$25,789,166
            Left WingCentreRight Wing
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $6,000,000$6,000,000
            LW, RW
            NMC
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $8,000,000$8,000,000
            C
            UFA - 8
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $825,000$825,000
            RW
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $7,250,000$7,250,000
            C
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $2,375,000$2,375,000
            C, LW
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $2,000,000$2,000,000
            C, LW, RW
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $975,000$975,000
            C
            RFA - 1
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
            RW, C
            RFA - 2
            Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $3,166,667$3,166,667
            LD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $9,000,000$9,000,000
            RD
            NMC
            UFA - 6
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $3,400,000$3,400,000
            G
            UFA - 3
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $1,125,000$1,125,000
            LD
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $4,400,000$4,400,000
            RD
            UFA - 5
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $2,800,000$2,800,000
            G
            UFA - 1
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $1,100,000$1,100,000
            LD/RD, LW
            UFA - 2
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $950,000$950,000
            RD
            RFA - 4
            ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
            Logo of the New Jersey Devils
            $4,125,000$4,125,000
            G
            UFA - 1

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            Top Comments

            Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:13 p.m.
            #1
            GO FLAMES GO
            Avatar of the user
            Joined: Sep. 2020
            Posts: 18,345
            Likes: 10,674
            Filling for Aribation does not mean he is a UFA next year. It is the Flames trying to extend the negotiation time to sign a long term contract, while stopping him from taking his 1 year QO and becoming a UFA next year
            Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:13 p.m.
            #2
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            Joined: Jun. 2021
            Posts: 15,550
            Likes: 11,936
            Flames allegedly refused a monster trade from the Blues
            Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:15 p.m.
            #3
            Avatar of the user
            Joined: Apr. 2017
            Posts: 305
            Likes: 78
            Quoting: Gmonwy
            Filling for Aribation does not mean he is a UFA next year. It is the Flames trying to extend the negotiation time to sign a long term contract, while stopping him from taking his 1 year QO and becoming a UFA next year


            I gotcha, so essentially the arb filing is just a time extension then? But just to clarify, arb doesn't go into UFA years right? So either way he's a UFA after this year unless he signs long term with CAL before reaching the arb date?
            Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:17 p.m.
            #4
            Hi
            Avatar of the user
            Joined: May 2022
            Posts: 210
            Likes: 52
            I agree. I think the return is going to still be good but probably shock some people. Makes no sense for any team to sell everything for Tkachuk rn. They should all be trying to take advantage of a team in a vulnerable position. Not getting in a bidding war. I'm nervous about what st. Louis might give up in pursuit of this and the ripple effect it would have on the roster.
            iforgotmyname and Tintin liked this.
            Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:22 p.m.
            #5
            Avatar of the user
            Joined: May 2022
            Posts: 8,567
            Likes: 3,319
            Quoting: GeneralLandro
            Flames allegedly refused a monster trade from the Blues


            Yep, so even if he's not worth more than DeBrincat. He will fetch more because the Blues are willing to pay up for him. It was reported or speculated that the offer was Kyrou+Krug+ a first, which sounds crazy to offer let alone reject (although STL wants to get out of Krug's contract). Personally, I think they would have offered Buchnevich+Krug+ (both have NTCs).

            In terms of who is a better player though I would say DeBrincat is the best, then Tkachuk, and then Fiala based off track record alone.
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