Are we ovethinking Tkachuks Value

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: iforgotmyname

Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 19, 2022

Published: Jul. 19, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Does Tkachuk carry more or less value than Fiala and Debrincat? From the player alone, I would say Tkachuk is by far the best one of the 3. However, (I could be wrong here) but I think Tkachuk's trade value is a lot lower than people are saying. Doesn't the arb filing mean he's a UFA next year anyways? At least with Fiala and Debrincat, the teams acquiring had RFA years left with both of them.

I think the trade for Tkachuk is going to involve a 1st rounder, a young roster player/top prospect, and 1 more piece. To me, I think Calgary has very very little leverage in a situation like this and I think if the devils were involved, it's 1 of 3 offers below. And if Calgary fans think this is a ridiculous lowball offer...look at the returns for the other 2 guys. Tkachuck is much better than both, but he's a UFA after this arb filing. So it's not going to be a King's Ransom. It's going to be very similar to Fiala and Debrincat returns.

And on another note, if the Flames are worried about Tkachuk getting offersheeted and that's why they filed for arb....4 1st round picks is worth that alone if Tkachuk is threatening to walk a year from now. Screw the whole '1st rounders are lottery tickets' because that's so damn far from the truth. 4 1st rounders gives you AMPLE amount of flexibility to construct your team how YOU want to. And there are great players in picks 16-32, or you could even trade those 1sts for NHL ready players.

Offers Below:

Trades

NJD

Tkachuk, Matthew [RFA Rights]

CGY

Foote, Nolan
Severson, Damon
2023 1st round pick (NJD)

NJD

Any Team, just need both off the roster

SEA

NJD

Matthew Tkachuk

CGY

2023 1st Round Pick
2024 2nd Round Pick
Yegor Sharangovich
Shakir Mukhamadullin

NJD

Matthew Tkachuk

CGY

Alexander Holtz
2024 2nd Round Pick

Buyouts

Cory Schneider: $2,000,000
Janne Kuokkanen: $200,000

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
16	$82,500,000	$56,710,834	$0	$400,000	$25,789,166

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Palat, Ondrej $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 5	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 8	Bastian, Nathan $825,000$825,000 RW UFA - 1
	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C UFA - 5
	Haula, Erik $2,375,000$2,375,000 C, LW UFA - 1
Sharangovich, Yegor $2,000,000$2,000,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 1	McLeod, Michael $975,000$975,000 C RFA - 1
	Mercer, Dawson $894,167$894,167 ($400,000$400K) RW, C RFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Graves, Ryan $3,166,667$3,166,667 LD UFA - 1	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 6	Vanecek, Vitek $3,400,000$3,400,000 G UFA - 3
Siegenthaler, Jonas $1,125,000$1,125,000 LD UFA - 1	Marino, John $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD UFA - 5	Blackwood, Mackenzie $2,800,000$2,800,000 G UFA - 1
Smith, Brendan $1,100,000$1,100,000 LD/RD, LW UFA - 2
	Nemec, Simon $950,000$950,000 RD RFA - 4

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Bernier, Jonathan $4,125,000$4,125,000 G UFA - 1

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:13 p.m.

Gmonwy

GO FLAMES GO

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 18,355

Likes: 10,683

Filling for Aribation does not mean he is a UFA next year. It is the Flames trying to extend the negotiation time to sign a long term contract, while stopping him from taking his 1 year QO and becoming a UFA next year

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:13 p.m.

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 15,586

Likes: 11,970

Flames allegedly refused a monster trade from the Blues

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:15 p.m.

iforgotmyname

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 305

Likes: 78

Quoting: Gmonwy

I gotcha, so essentially the arb filing is just a time extension then? But just to clarify, arb doesn't go into UFA years right? So either way he's a UFA after this year unless he signs long term with CAL before reaching the arb date?

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:17 p.m.

Azz_Aidz

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 210

Likes: 52

I agree. I think the return is going to still be good but probably shock some people. Makes no sense for any team to sell everything for Tkachuk rn. They should all be trying to take advantage of a team in a vulnerable position. Not getting in a bidding war. I'm nervous about what st. Louis might give up in pursuit of this and the ripple effect it would have on the roster.

iforgotmyname and Tintin liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:22 p.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,590

Likes: 3,322

Quoting: GeneralLandro

Flames allegedly refused a monster trade from the Blues

Yep, so even if he's not worth more than DeBrincat. He will fetch more because the Blues are willing to pay up for him. It was reported or speculated that the offer was Kyrou+Krug+ a first, which sounds crazy to offer let alone reject (although STL wants to get out of Krug's contract). Personally, I think they would have offered Buchnevich+Krug+ (both have NTCs).

In terms of who is a better player though I would say DeBrincat is the best, then Tkachuk, and then Fiala based off track record alone.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:25 p.m.

iforgotmyname

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 305

Likes: 78

Quoting: GMBL

If they rejected that offer, I'd have to imagine it's because of Krug in that deal. But that's just me

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:30 p.m.

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,590

Likes: 3,322

Quoting: iforgotmyname

If they rejected that offer, I'd have to imagine it's because of Krug in that deal. But that's just me

It's probably most likely because they want Tkachuk around still and have hope that they could resign him still. Krug does have a huge cap hit for the next 5 years which could be a problem but he would improve their D-core so perhaps. The Flames also don't have to trade him to the Blues so would be smartest of them to see what the best offer is if they are forced to go down the trade path.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:33 p.m.

Alfie11

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 9,527

Likes: 8,968

you really think a year of severson takes you from coleman to tkachuk? give your head a shake

Jul. 19, 2022 at 10:34 p.m.

HeadHighSauce

Dougie HIMilton

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,071

Likes: 1,628

Quoting: Gmonwy

One thing that definitely could lower his value is if he refuses to extend anywhere but STL and they can't afford him until UFA (not saying this will or won't happen). Then you kinda have to trade him as a rental for a lesser return, right?

iforgotmyname liked this.

Jul. 19, 2022 at 11:40 p.m.

#10

JackHughesELITE

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 388

Likes: 162

Quoting: GeneralLandro

Flames allegedly refused a monster trade from the Blues

Reported as STL never offered that package.

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