Ryan OReilly Trade Comps

Created by: dannibalcorpse

Team: 2022-23 St. Louis Blues

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 16, 2022

Published: Dec. 16, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Legend

Left Handed

Original Team

Waivers Exempt

Right Handed

Position

Trade Clause

Max Perf. Bonus

Expiry Status

Term Remaining

McDavid, Connor

$12,500,000 ( Performance Bonus

$250,000)

NMC

UFA - 5

Description

Been seeing a lot of offers with Lebrun's report that the Blues are willing to listen on Ryan O'Reilly. If they move him, he's going to be a huge grab for a team that acquires him - Conn Smythe winner, 4 straight top-5 Selke finishes including a win, can play all three phases, great on the dot for what that's worth, and good all-around play. His scoring is down slightly this year, on a 40-45ish point pace, but I think you can also chalk some of that up to going from running on a line with Brandon Saad & David Perron last year to this year, where Saad and Josh Leivo are his most common line mates.

A lot of the offers posted around here have been really undervaluing him, IMO. Not a Blues fan, so apologies if I'm stepping outside my lane, but I'm gonna try and throw out some reasonable comps for what St. Louis should be referencing in a potential ROR trade, with the differences both good and bad outlined for each comp. Gonna try and pick likely landing spots for him to get a more realistic idea on the comps.

Let me know what you think about these, and how much you hate the fact that I would even think of sending out your favorite team's 1st rounder.

Free Agent Signings

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
OReilly, Ryan		1	$7,500,000
OReilly, Ryan		1	$7,500,000

Trades

STL

Kaut, Martin
2024 1st round pick (COL)
2025 3rd round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

COMP: CLAUDE GIROUX. It's a good comp because it's recent, and features a similar player - veteran forward who is aging gracefully. Kaut fills the Owen Tippett role as a former 1st rounder who hasn't clicked yet; Florida sent a 1st a couple drafts away and the teams swapped a 2023 3rd for a 2024 5th. Colorado doesn't have a 3rd til 2025 but I think that's just window dressing and not as important

COL

O'Reilly, Ryan ($3,750,000 retained)
2025 5th round pick (STL)

Additional Details:

BUT WHAT ABOUT: It's not the best comp for two reasons - and you can argue either way. Giroux was still scoring at a 0.74 PPG rate, while O'Reilly has dropped to 0.5 to date, so obviously it's a bad comp. But wait! Giroux also had a full NMC that limited his market, and ROR has no such limitation - with open bidding, wouldn't ROR get a *better* offer? I think these cancel out, honestly, but I can see a case being made either way if you think one is more important than the other.

STL

2023 1st round pick (TOR)
2024 2nd round pick (TOR)
2025 3rd round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

COMP: JG PAGEAU. This works because it's similar player - a strong defensive center who can also contribute offensively, a classic two-way guy. The 3rd was conditional based on playoff advancement; I'd keep it as non-conditional since ROR would need St. Louis to retain while Pageau needed no retention at $3.1M.

TOR

OReilly, Ryan ($3,750,000 retained)

Additional Details:

BUT WHAT ABOUT: Again, you can make two arguments against this comp, but both are coming from opposite directions. One side could say that Ottawa was selling high on JGP - he had 24 goals in 60 GP when he was traded, a pace he has not matched at any other time in his career, before or after the trade. On the flip side, you could argue that ROR is more valuable than Pageau - JGP had a few years with down-ballot Selke votes, while O'Reilly has had 4 straight top-5 finishes in the voting, with a win. Clearly, at least in perception around the league, ROR is a superior defensive asset.

STL

Blais, Samuel
Garand, Dylan
Gauthier, Julien
2023 1st round pick (DAL)

Additional Details:

COMP: RICKARD RAKELL

More of a slant comparison, I included this to give an idea of what a trade that sends back cap to keep everything cap-neutral for the acquiring team would look like. It's another recent comp, from last year's deadline, where Anaheim retained on RR, getting back two pending UFA bottom-6 guys, a strong goalie prospect, and a 2nd

NYR

OReilly, Ryan ($3,750,000 retained)

Additional Details:

BUT WHAT ABOUT: Clearly, Ryan O'Reilly is better than Rickard Rackell. No offense meant, but I don't think you're going to find anyone really arguing against that. Right off the bat, I bumped up the 2nd Anaheim got for RR to a 1st coming back from the Rangers, but it still feels light. But the Rangers only see an extra $597K in cap coming back in this deal by sending back Blais & Gauthier.

Retained Salary Transactions

Ryan O'Reilly: $3,750,000 (200%)
Ryan OReilly: $3,750,000 (50%)
Ryan OReilly: $3,750,000 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
25	$82,500,000	$83,278,333	$1,100,000	$332,500	-$778,333

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Buchnevich, Pavel $5,800,000$5,800,000 LW, RW, C M-NTC UFA - 3		Tarasenko, Vladimir $3,750,000$3,750,000 RW NTC UFA - 1
Saad, Brandon $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW, RW NTC UFA - 4	Schenn, Brayden $6,500,000$6,500,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 6	Kyrou, Jordan $2,800,000$2,800,000 RW UFA - 1
Toropchenko, Alexey $750,000$750,000 LW, RW RFA - 1	Thomas, Robert $2,800,000$2,800,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Bitten, Will $762,500$762,500 RW, C UFA - 2
Walker, Nathan $750,000$750,000 LW UFA - 1	Barbashev, Ivan $2,250,000$2,250,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Leivo, Josh $750,000$750,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Blais, Samuel $1,525,000$1,525,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Acciari, Noel $1,250,000$1,250,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Pitlick, Tyler $750,000$750,000 RW UFA - 1
		Gauthier, Julien $800,000$800,000 RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Krug, Torey $6,500,000$6,500,000 LD NTC UFA - 5	Faulk, Justin $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD NTC UFA - 5	Binnington, Jordan $6,000,000$6,000,000 G NTC UFA - 5
Leddy, Nick $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD NTC UFA - 4	Parayko, Colton $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD NTC UFA - 8	Greiss, Thomas $1,250,000$1,250,000 ($250,000$250K) G UFA - 1
Mikkola, Niko $1,900,000$1,900,000 LD UFA - 1	Bortuzzo, Robert $950,000$950,000 RD UFA - 2	Garand, Dylan $828,333$828,333 ($82,500$82K) G RFA - 3
Rosén, Calle $762,500$762,500 LD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Scandella, Marco $3,275,000$3,275,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2
		Brown, Logan $750,000$750,000 C, LW RFA - 1
		Perunovich, Scott $750,000$750,000 LD RFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Kaut, Martin $863,333$863,333 ($0$0$0$0) ($425,000$425K) RW RFA - 1

Top Comments

Dec. 16, 2022 at 1:31 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,242

Likes: 18,370

I’d say Giroux fits best, maybe with small (-).

dannibalcorpse and TJTwolf liked this.

Dec. 16, 2022 at 1:34 p.m.

dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 5,973

Likes: 5,107

Quoting: NHLfan10506

I’d say Giroux fits best, maybe with small (-).

The one thing that makes me think it goes over that return is because of the lack of NTC - if St. Louis can get two teams interested, they can push for a little extra. Not saying it turns into a deal for multiple 1sts, but maybe that Owen Tippett prospect turns into a more highly regarded prospect, you know?

Xqb15a and TJTwolf liked this.

Dec. 16, 2022 at 1:36 p.m.

Brad_Treliving

Joined: Oct. 2021

Posts: 3,635

Likes: 803

Quoting: dannibalcorpse

He may not have any clauses (ROR) but I think the Blues will want to do right by their captain and move him to a team that he wants to go to. Obviously not just one destination like Giroux but have 5 teams that he wants to go to and who ever offers the best gets the player

TJTwolf liked this.

Dec. 16, 2022 at 1:38 p.m.

Xqb15a

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 11,414

Likes: 9,056

I think STL can get more for ROR because unless I missed it he doesn’t have even a limited NTC. But one thing I am super curious to see how it plays out is the limited cap space and high quality draft, does this turn into a big time buyers market?

TJTwolf liked this.

Dec. 16, 2022 at 1:40 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,242

Likes: 18,370

Quoting: dannibalcorpse

Giroux is the better player though.

Nick Foligno is the comp I’d use.

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Ryan OReilly Trade Comps

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Description

Free Agent Signings

Trades

STL

COL

STL

TOR

STL

NYR

Retained Salary Transactions

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