meier deal, imo, is going to be based off the debrincat deal. both are high-skilled wingers putting up impressive numbers on bad teams, they're on cheap contracts but are due for a significant raise, and they're both about the same age (meier is 26, brinc was 24 when he was traded).
debrincat got a 1st (7th ovr), a 2nd, and a 3rd (which was a steal at the time and i expect grier will command more).
holtz was a 7th overall pick. his value has probably depreciated slightly as he's struggled, but i think holtz & a top 10 protected 1st will be worth more than that.
devils can go two routes with the defenseman:
1. pair a defensive guy with each of your high risk defenseman (offense or inexperienced)
sieg - hamilton
luke - marino
graves - nemec
or 2. play luke & nemec together (that's the first pairing in 2-3 years) and let them figure it out on the 3rd pair, while you have a legit shutdown pairing:
sieg - hamilton
graves - marino
luke - nemec
i went with the last one, but either works
unfortunately i think wood prices himself out of NJ. foote can replace him, and there will be plenty of teams coveting someone like wood.
devils could go crazy in free agency, as i've projected them to here. tarasenko would be a stellar fit on this team. play him next to bratt and hughes and you have 3 legitimate scoring threats - and the hischier led second line to follow up.
thoughts on the future outlook:
tarasenko takes a 6 year deal that drives down the AAV - it's a risk for Fitz to take but one I think is necessary. you'll get 3 seasons out of him worth 7M, then another 3 seasons that probably are closer to worth 3M, so over a 6 year period, 6.35M makes perfect sense, because you pay a premium for the productive seasons when signing in FA.
closest comps for tarasenko:
- trochek (low, low end)
- palat (slightly lower end)
- kadri (higher end because kadri is a C)
cap goes up by approx 4M next year. i'd assume mercer gets a raise to 3M x 3 years as a bridge deal.
i've left a little bit of space open to be cautious of the deals that hughes and nemec will need.
(without brendan smith, there is about 2.7M in space, and i'd assume smith doesn't return next year)
the third line takes a slight hit without rango - but i believe mercer will take another step forward next year and hopefully boqvist & zetterlund will as well.
if not, maybe foote can take one of their places, and another forward can be called up, signed, or traded for to fill the 4th line.
the trade is based on like 4 different articles i read making mocks for meier.
top prospect (holtz) + a 1st rd pick + a b level prospect + a decent roster player
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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