Don't even know anymore, man! This team is definitely in "win now" mode without a ton of winning to show for it. Let's try and continue kicking that can down the road; Lou doesn't seem to care about leaving an absolute tire fire of a team behind to whoever takes over for him (even if it's his own dang son!!)
Not a ton of signings - keep most of the RFAs, convince Varlamov to stick around as a solid 1B on a lesser salary, and keep Pierre Engvall around on a $2.5M AAV to be a younger version of what an assumedly-retired Zach Parise has been for the team this year - a Swiss army knife guy who can play anywhere.
With no signings, let's do some trades baby!
-Lou hates to admit that he's wrong on a guy, but he might be wrong on Romanov. It also should be noted that LHD is one of the few places the Isles have decent depth in their pipeline - Sam Bolduc looks like a legit prospect, Robin Salo has shown himself to be NHL-ready, as has Dennis Cholowski & Parker Wotherspoon, and Calle Odelius looks to have middle-pair upside. Not a murderer's row, I know, but a quintet of solid players. So Alex Romanov gets moved - to Colorado, who can shelter him with 3rd pair minutes, and is happy to turn $5M of 3rd pair Sam GIrard into $2.5M of 3rd pair Alex Romanov. Isles throw in a mid-rounder to make up for the talent disparity, but that's all I really think is needed to make this an even deal.
-Gotta move Josh Bailey. Chicago needs warm bodies next year, and will probably be interested in a guy with the leadership qualities Bailey has. Modeled this off the Petr Mrazek draft-day deal, where Chicago took 2x$3.8M (over $8M in real money) to move up from #38 to #25. This time, they take 1x$5M(with $3.5M in real money) to move up from the low 80s to the low 50s.
-Speaking of that glut of LHD, Robin Salo is a decent hand who can be fine in 3rd pair minutes and might grow into something more. Problem is, the Isles have a trio of guys who that description fits and only have one 3rd pair spot to give them - so Salo gets moved for another post-hype prospect. LA can use him as an Alex Edler replacement, and the Isles get some more young depth to build to eventually take over when the over-30 crowd finally finishes their contracts.
LINES
Lee-Horvat-Barzal seems to be a solid trio, leave it alone.
Engvall-Nelson-Wahlstrom puts a lot of speed and a heavy shot alongside Brock's 2-way game. Will it work? Who knows.
Palmieri-Pageau-Holmstrom is two guys with chemstry (P&P) with Simon Holmstrom hopefully maturing into a defensively sound option here.
Durandeau-Cizikas-Martin/Clutterbuck: Durandeau is a grimy player, have enjoyed his work so far this year. He gets some fresh legs on this line, with Martin & Clutterbuck playing as health dictates.
D PAIRS
Pelech-Dobson puts Noah with a defensively sound partner he hopefully learns something from.
Bolduc-Pulock puts the most veteran defenseman with the youngest - hopefully can work the same way Greene/Dobson pairing worked two years ago?
Aho-Girard is a smaller pair that I'd shelter with more O-zone starts.
I like that setup because it lets you move Girard up to the second pair in a tight game without running everyone into the ground - Lambert loves double-shifting his veterans in a close game so spreading them out from the start will hopefully keep everyone's legs fresher.
NEED: Bowen Byram needs a new deal this summer and Devon Toews will need one next summer; Girard eventually gets squeezed out as he makes too much to be the 4th/5th best D in Colorado.
VALUE: Romanov is younger and has half the cap hit Girard does. He's got room to grow but comes with a pick attached as Girard is clearly a superior player.
2.
NYI
2023 3rd round pick (DAL)
Additional Details:
NEED: He's a pending UFA, good "intangibles" guy, might bring back something retained down to $2.5M
VALUE: Basing this off the Mrazek cap dump at last year's draft - Toronto gave up Mrazek & #25OA and got back #38OA for 2x$3.8M left on Mrazek's deal; Bailey has only 1x$5M left and is still mildly useful.
VALUE: Islanders get back a similarly-aged player slowly aging out of the "prospect" label, but young enough to help build some depth for a team in desperate need of it.
I would prefer a 1st, or at least two 2nds.
Edit: For Girard
Lou would probably give you back the pair of 2nds for Devon Toews, but I think for Girard it would be more of a hockey trade like this - Girard is more less sliding into the Scott Mayfield slot (RD3 on the depth chart but moves up and down the lineup as necessary during the game) while Toews would be more of a standard top-4 guy here.
Not saying that Toews is only worth a pair of 2nds; more saying that I think Lamoriello would give up big picks for the better player but would pivot elsewhere if that's the ask on Girard.
I'm sure the Hawks would be "in" on taking Bailey, but the only way this trade would go down as proposed is if there's a player on the board Hawks absolutely love. Otherwise I see more of a 2024 2nd and Bailey to the Hawks for F/C or some lesser prospect.
I appreciate the level of thought you put into your comments and posts. And while it's not like outlandish, I don't think Colorado goes for this trade for the following reasons.
1. Romanov doesn't look like he has the upside some thought (imo).
2. The Avs could sign a ufa for the bottom pairing and move Girard for better futures, which likely leaves them in a better spot going forward.
3. I think they prefer to hold onto Girard for as long as they can. He likely only gets moved this soon if the team chases a 2C.
4. They won't move him unless they have a good idea of what Toews wants on his next deal, and it's too soon for that.
Obviously the team could feel differently about Romanov and make everything I said worthless, but I don't think so. I really believe that Girard's availability is overestimated on this site.
I appreciate the level of thought you put into your comments and posts. And while it's not like outlandish, I don't think Colorado goes for this trade for the following reasons.
1. Romanov doesn't look like he has the upside some thought (imo).
2. The Avs could sign a ufa for the bottom pairing and move Girard for better futures, which likely leaves them in a better spot going forward.
3. I think they prefer to hold onto Girard for as long as they can. He likely only gets moved this soon if the team chases a 2C.
4. They won't move him unless they have a good idea of what Toews wants on his next deal, and it's too soon for that.
Obviously the team could feel differently about Romanov and make everything I said worthless, but I don't think so. I really believe that Girard's availability is overestimated on this site.
I especially agree with #3&4 - they don't *need* to move Girard so why do it? The extra cap space helps but they can work around it if they need to.
From the Isles side, I tried to make a move I could see Lamoriello make - if something insane happened and I wound up GM of the Islanders tomorrow, I wouldn't be beholden to the old regime's moves, so I'd flip out Romanov for a 2nd & a prospect (or whatever) instead of trying to upgrade him into a better player - but Lou's not gonna turn a player he paid a 1st rounder for into a 2nd rounder, so I assume he'd try and move Romanov in a deal for a better, more established player with a higher cap hit. It clearly depends on Colorado seeing another LHD from the Islanders and getting excited about him, though.
Quoting: Hawksguy81
I'm sure the Hawks would be "in" on taking Bailey, but the only way this trade would go down as proposed is if there's a player on the board Hawks absolutely love. Otherwise I see more of a 2024 2nd and Bailey to the Hawks for F/C or some lesser prospect.
Yeah, not opposed to something like that if it comes down to it. I'd throw Bailey and a 2nd out for a guy like Mike Hardman coming back, if only for the A+ value his name brings to the table.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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