I was not going to make another leaf ACGM until Nylander signed, but I have a confession to make. I actually like Jake Gardiner in the blue and white. For those of you who don't know, the Leafs top pairing Dmen were Jake Gardiner on the left and Nikita Zaitzev on the right if you are going by TOI and ATOI (I know right). Hes a solid Dman 95% of the time with excellent offence, and can show flashes of brilliance that remind us of why he was drafted 2 spots behind Erik Karlsson, and how he could have really turned into a true, #1LHD, rather than a barely passable one. He is most known for his occasional... horrendously game losingly (is that a word?) awful decision making, which was on full display game 7 vs Boston this year. That being said, he is still young enough (for a Dman) to fix that part of his game (especially under Babcock, although I doubt it will happen), and even with it in can play an important role on this team maybe sharing the number 1 spot with Rielly instead of Zaitzev pls Babs?
Either way, the only way this works is a Zaitzev esq contract. Long term, full NMC, lower cap hit.
On a totally off topic note: I got criticized last time for "Some Veteran." Goat is the only Centre anywhere remotly ready for the NHL (brooks is not ready yet), and I am not sure he will ever be full time, also babs likes his vets, so I think we will get a league min signing to fill 4C.
On another tangent, had the leafs not got Tavares, we were kind of screwed down the middle. No depth and nothing coming in the line for awhile. We needed (and still need) to draft a centre that can play a 3/4 role on a team.
So what did I learn? It is possible. But it basically requires everyone to take their minimum expected deal (not exactly a discount, but not their full value, so like hundreds of thousands off, not millions).
Chances of happening like this:
matthews getting 11 mil, 75%
Nylander getting 6 (probs for 8 years), 30%
Marner getting 7.25, 35%
Kappy getting 2.25, 65%
Johnsson getting 1.25, 35%
Borgman, Rosen, Sparks getting these contracts or less, 75%
Gardiner accepting this offer, 5%
I’ll give you 4 stars for a realistic view of Gardiner. I don’t think he will take such a low offer but I’m pretty sure he would give a discount to stay.
No love for Lindholm? Pretty sure he will be our 4c.
Jake is 28 years old, you really want to sign to a 8 year contract? Jake seemed to have peaked two seasons ago, it's time for Leafs to move and spend that cap wiser. To achieve cap space you have paid Borgman and Rosen less of what they make now. They could walk as UFAs without a 10% raise. If Gardiner has good season, he'll get more $$$ from some team, maybe for five years, if he stays the same or worse this season, it's time to get Dermot/Reilly/Borgman/Rosen, maybe Sandin the LHD spots.
Nylander will need to be locked up for 8 years and it will probably be around $6.5-7M range - a bridge deal will sink the leafs unless they trade him at the draft.
I agree with you with regards to Gardiner, but he'll probably cost us over $6M/per and will get closer to $7M during Free Agency.
He's this years JVR - great player, but TML can't afford to pay him what he wants/deserves.