So you think your team should sign Tavares next year. Fine. I thought the same thing about Stamkos a few years back. It's okay to dream, and that's kind of what this site is for.
But for those who INSIST that Tavares is __________ bound, here is a checklist of things that would need to happen for your team to end up with Tavares next year:
1). Scott Malkin's Plans for Belmont Crumble
The Islanders are extremely unhappy with their current arena at the Barclays Center, and rightfully so. The ice is of low quality and the and several seats have an obstructed view of the ice. Rumor has it that Okposo and Nielsen left the team because of their disdain for the Islanders' facilities. So what have the Islanders done since this happened? For starters, they've built an all new practice facility that has been described as among the best in the league (1). More importantly, they've submitted a bid for land in Belmont, a community about half way between Brooklyn and Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Rumor has it that Tavares is waiting to see how Belmont shakes out before he makes a decision (2), and though Tavares hasn't publicly weighed in on Belmont, it makes sense that Tavares would view staying with the Isles more favorably if the Isles were only two or three years removed from a brand new stadium that the Franchise has sole control over. In short, if Belmont goes through and Tavares stays, Tavares gets to enjoy playing in an all new stadium, with presumably top of the line ice and the currently upgraded facilities. If the Belmont deal falls through, the Islanders would likely have to find a way to stay in Brooklyn or go back to unfavorable facilities in Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, which Tavares would understandably view with disdain. So! If you want Tavares to leave Long Island, you'd better hope that the New York Islanders franchise loses their bid for Belmont.
2). Your team needs to outperform the Islanders this season (and likely any other team pursuing Tavares)
John Tavares is currently in his prime at 27 years old. He's currently scoring at a 50 goal season pace, and he's doing it next to a guy scoring a 40 goal season pace (Anders Lee) and one of the league's current assist leaders (Josh Bailey). The three showed signs of it last season and now it's clear: the three have wicked chemistry (3) [see link three for a brief description of the game that, in my opinion, showcases that lines amazing chemistry]. So why would Tavares leave that? Simple: be a better complete team. As I said, Tavares is currently in his prime, so even if your team is full of great future pieces, he's not going to waste his prime grooming the next generation of YOUR team's talent. Even if your team is offering the opportunity to play with "x" star defenseman or "y" star winger, your team should still show that they're better than the Islanders. If Tavares really wants to leave a team he has said several times he enjoys playing for, he's going to leave for a team that brings him closer to championships. Nothing less. Sorry Montreal, Buffalo, NYR, but if you want to get Tavares to sign, you've got catching up to do. In fact, every team that isn't above the Isles' current #9 league ranking has catching up to do.
3). Your team must have the cap space to take on Tavares. Like, right now. Not later. Not after you make a few trades. Now.
I've seen a lot of posts on this site about "shedding cap weight to sign Tavares". Really think about this. Right now there's only one team that can talk contract terms with Tavares from now to July 1st: Tavares. Sure, Tavares can privately consider which teams are attractive to him, but suitors have to wait until July 1st to actually talk contract terms with him. Why would your team, or any team, trade away good players for cap space for a player who you can't even talk money with until a few days before signing him? Especially since the rest of the league, including the Islanders, will be making similar offers? The fact of the matter is, not GM in their right mind would do that. One in the hand (whoever decent yet overpaid skater on your team you want to shed) is worth two in the bush (Tavares, who is not your team). To be fair, if you're thinking of letting certain players' contracts run their course this offseason, and then trying to sign Tavares with the cap space your old players used to occupy, does make some sense. But remember, Tavares is going to want around 11m a year. That's a big chunk of cap space, and most teams don't have that lying around now, or this offseason.
4). The current line chemistry between Tavares, Bailey and Lee would have to crumble
John Tavares is currently on a line where everyone on that line is scoring at just under, or significantly above, a point per game pace. Most teams don't have that, and those teams that do, are preparing for the next payday of one of those three linemates. Will Tavares leave a line that showed impressive production last year (4), and outstanding production this year? Likely not. Even if your team has a winger who you'd think would mesh perfectly with Tavares, that winger does not currently have chemistry with Tavares. Again, one in the hand is worth two in the bush. Tavares will always weigh what he has over the possibility of having the same thing elsewhere. If you want Tavares to leave NYI, hope that Lee and Bailey lose their synergy with the captain.
5). The Islanders would have to miss the playoffs or do horribly once they get there
Tavares has, for a player of his skill level, not seen enough playoff time. This is one reason why so many think he's leaving the Islanders. However, Tavares did get a glimpse of playoff success in 2015, beating the Panthers in 6 and getting his franchise their first postseason win in a over a decade. There's a sense that he'll want to finish what he's started, and with this year's offense, it's very likely that the Isles will be a tough team to contain in a seven game series. If the Islanders win another playoff series or two this post season, Tavares will take that into consideration when re signing. He'll want to stay on a team he's currently successful on. If you want to get Tavares this offseason, your team should at least go further in the playoffs than the Islanders.
As a final note, it's important to point out that the Islanders won't simply be outbid for Tavares. Below I've LTIRed all the players who I don't think will be returning next year. So with that, the Islanders have $12m in cap space. Tavares already makes $5.5m, so in the event that Tavares would want a Connor McDavid style contract, the Islanders would have to use only $7m of the $12m they've set aside. No team is beating the Isles' offer on money alone.
I really love this post. Your spot on. Though for number 3 Habs do have cap space . In my personal opinion after watching the isles play and with the 2 1st rd picks they have available, and the emergence of Barzal as a legit nhl centerman contending for the calder, I don't see Tavares leaving isles.
Fine post sir. You're right , so many contender teams would have to change their structure of their teams to fit in Tavares under their cap. And I really can't see Tavares going to San Jose or St Louis if he has the choice. The Metro division especially Isles, Rangers and NJ have the easiest travel schedule by far in the league.
The only team I could see him leaving for would be none at all even tho I would love to see him as a ranger he would have LeBron level hate in half of ny plus if the islanders could shore up their defense they would be a top level contender however Bailey is a free agent as well so that might effect his decision a little
I disagree, the isles will have maybe 20 mil in cap space if they let all but Tavares and bailey walk. Which now makes a weak bottom 6 even weaker. Now Tavares probably won’t re-sign if bailey doesn’t. Bailey is on pace for 90+ points. He is gonna get big money thrown his way. Isles would have to throw close to 7-8 mil just to keep him. 12 mil for Tavares is the remainder of cap space and you still have to sign 3 players.
There are better teams out there that will have the cap space to sign him.
You are right, not many team can afford to get Tavares contract in
But don't forget Isl will need to share the 15M$ cap space between (2018-9 cap space @ 78M):
Tavares+6M (5,5+6= 11,5)
Bailey +3M
DeHaan +2M
and Hickey and the all young D crowd another +3M
2nd Goalie 1-2M?
Total of 15M$... and you will need to resign Lee the following year.. another +3M.
So the Isl are like all other team... tight very tight & would they be a Cup contender after all that???
Have fun watching him play for the Leafs. They have plenty of cap space and a better young team.
In reality, the Leafs do not have long term cap if they want to keep their young core together. Folks don not look at the when the bonus payments realistically, or even how an LTIR (Horton) has to be on the opening day lineup to overage bonus payment carryover.
Thanks for doing this write-up, it is insightful. I read through the whole thing and can't rule out STL. Obviously most of these things are out of STL's control, but they have a competing team that's not fading away - and they're projected to outperform NYI slightly this year, although it is a long way to April. Not sure why others (looking at you, PalHal) are so quick to write off STL. Travel schedule??? It's a playoff team and a loyal fanbase - and he won't be under the microscope in STL compared to most places.
Letting Stastny walk would open $7M in cap, we could fork over $10M, maybe not as much as NYI or MTL can offer, but if the other chips fall, I don't think the money will be his deciding factor. And signing JT for 7 x $10M would be sustainable since none of our other stars will need contracts any time soon and we have some promising young guys that should give us production while on ELCs (Thompson, Kostin, Kyrou, Thomas, Dunn, Walman).
. In my personal opinion after watching the isles play and with the 2 1st rd picks they have available, and the emergence of Barzal as a legit nhl centerman contending for the calder, I don't see Tavares leaving isles.
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