Berglund alone is worth more than Hoffman.

really hope you are joking...

No.

One plays a highly effective 3C, 15g, 30pt, at 3.85 for 5 years.

The other is a 60 point top 6 winger at 5.65 for 3 years. This is a dime a dozen.

It is MUCH harder to replace the 3C at 3.85 than the winger at 5.65.

Can target Kane, Pacioretty, Pavelski, Nash, Perron/Neal, JVR, Vanek, Vrbata, on and on...so easy to get a top 6 mediocre winger.

What 3C options are there who cost less than 4 AAV?

How else can you explain Hanzal getting more than Shattenkirk at last year's deadline? Big body 3C is desired way more than best PP qb in the entire league, let alone a 5.65 winger who isn't getting a sniff at an all-star game.

I disagree. 60 pt wingers ain't dime a dozen and Hoffman ain't mediocre. Hoffman's AAV is 5.187M. Berglund is as streaky as they come on offense and his contract is very average for a 3c so we wouldn't be keeping him for value reasons.

In any case, Pageau is a good 3C and Ottawa probably isn't looking to add any C (although Berglund is an effective winger). I think a Hoffman trade includes futures as the main pieces, and I don't endorse tossing Berglund into the deal for cap purposes, we could toss in Sobotka or Gunnarsson and it would sting less IMO.

Yeah I understand the premise of a 3C at that price being valued a bit higher than Hoffman, but have you watched Berglund play? One of the most frustrating players on the Blues and does not effect the game in any positive way really. I guess if a team REALLY needs to fill the 3C spot and does not expect him to do anything other than score every 10 games then sure.
Guy has 16 assists in his last 3 seasons lol. 0 vision, does not really use his big body and does not win many faceoffs. Only positives are an occasional goal and hes a great locker room guy.

Sobotka impacts the game on a nightly basis much more than Berglund. Also if its for cap reasons I think Ottawa would want Gunnarson who could play well next to Karlsson.

Yeah you might be right there. Biggest detail though? Berglund has NMC that he won't waive.

He's 5.187 because his first year that STL wouldn't get was low, Stillman would be paying 5.8.

Berglund is a part of the "depth" that makes teams contenders. He isn't an all-star, but every single team in the league who doesn't have a solid 3C wants one, as shown by values of actual trades.

Any single trade deadline or draft you can move prospects for a 5mil aav+ winger. They are a dime a dozen. Competent low minute centers are not.

Sure he is streaky. Doesn't matter. His job is to deliver offensive zone draws for the top 6, like any other 3rd line center. He does that above average. He starts more often in the defensive zone but has a positive corsi. He isn't Scotty Upshall who takes a 2 minute minor every single damn time hes in the defensive zone.

If you give that away for a scoring winger every time you have it you'll end up like all the teams longing for a reliable 3C, and most of them are in the doghouse of the standings.

Corsica.hockey disagrees.

You are expecting too much out of a 3C and you won't replace his contribution with less money, and you'll pay with prospects to get an equal level contribution.

Because Sobotka plays in the top 6, with more ice time, better wingers/center, and special teams time.

What do you think this statement proves?

Man, I'm just amazed more than anything because I thought I liked Berglund... I've never seen someone defend him this hard haha. Yes, he's important as a 3c but he's not irreplaceable, and if the Blues want to add secondary scoring, it's harder than you're making it sound by just listing out "dime-a-dozen" wingers (you mentioned Pavelski??). He was probably included in this trade for cap reasons only, not as a valued piece to get Hoffman (would be Fabbri in this case) and I disagree with doing that. Fortunately, Berglund has NMC and isn't going anywhere. We'll have to pay a price to get any of Hoffman, Neal, Kane, JVR... they're not as commonplace or easy to get as you think they are, they'll cost serious pieces. Unless we go cheap with Vanek/Vrbata etc., which doesn't seem like it would get much done.

Berglund has played top 6 minutes and powerplay a lot this season with all the injuries. He is not good but whatever if you were right someone would have traded for him by now.
I watch the games I dont look at stats like Corsi to determine if a player is good or not.
I am with you that as far as 3Centers go at his AAV it is not all that bad, but I will take a dynamic scoring winger over Berglund anyday. Especially when you have Sobotka/Steen/Barbashev that can all be your 3C.

Its like this.

If it isn't broken, don't fix it.

Berglund at sub 4 mil aav is above average and a secured competitive advantage.

You don't offload that for a 2nd line winger.

Pavelski is included because he is 33, has 26 points on the season at the halfway point, and likely not the same player he was at his prime. It is not my fault that time exists and that it effects human beings.

In the playoffs, when this actually counts, Berglund's role will be to start in the defensive zone against the opposition's second line and deliver the STL 1st line offensive zone draws. He is better at that than most, and cannot be replaced easily. If you were wanting to trade guys like Musil or Kyrou or Walman and some picks to find a replacement, then maybe you should trade Berglund for a top 6 winger. But I wouldn't.

I'd argue that the secondary scoring on this team is broken and adding Hoffman would fix it. We've already been over the fact that Berglund is a fine 3C and literally can't be moved in a trade for a winger due to a clause in his contract. So let's not go in circles, what can the Blues add to Fabbri + pick to make a trade for a winger? I saw your Pavelski-Thompson attempt and I think it's ok but SJS won't do it. Personally I like Hoffman vs all the other guys you've listed out, mostly due to his availability/price tag.

Well, if we're talking about spending assets on this level, I'd rather try to pry OEL out of Arizona with Fabbris, Berglunds, and upgrade Bo, than add another LW behind Schwartz, Fabs, Steen, Sobotka, etc.

Blues are more than capable at LW - no need to give up a competitive advantage to make our 2nd line LW 10% better. If we're going to spend like this, lets get something that really improves the team (right handed shot who can play center, albeit not 1C, or LHD in prime)

Additionally, prior to Schwartz' injury, the Blues were the best (or second best, depending on the day of the week) 5v5 club in the NHL and had no issues with scoring.

5v5 play wins cups. 9 of the past 10 cup winners have been a standard deviation above the competitions 5v5 play in GF%. The only time it didn't happen (Kings), they played no opponent who was better at them at 5v5 play. Blues need to improve 5v5 play, and with Schwartz in the line-up, LW is not the position to target. Giving away a 3C + + for a top 6 LW is not the promise land.

Its the closest thing to promise land you are going to get this season. No team is giving up top line centers and Army would never give up what it takes to get an OEL in the middle of the season.
Getting those types of players is much harder especially in the middle of the season. If the Blues want to add someone who can help them win the cup this year as well as help the team in the future (which is the only way Army makes a move) then Hoffman makes the most sense. And giving up Fabbri and one of our 10 prospects would not be a very big blow. Especially with Hoffman essentially being a more established Fabbri and then the prospect probably Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin or Thompson. preferably Kyrou. Simply will not be room for all of our prospects in the next 3 years to be in the lineup so if every single one pans out like all Blues fans think they will they will be stuck in the minors anyways.
I would want to do Fabbri, Kyrou and Gunnarson for Hoffman.

I would be interested in:

1 year rentals:

Maroon or Vrbata for essentially nothing

Kane for anything less than Musil and a 2nd.

Thats it.

I'm not against Hoffman at all, but I think the price is too steep considering our lineup.

2nd year UFAs:

Pavelski (obviously my fav) and Patches (don't want)

1-3 year UFA centers

Reinhardt or ROR from Buffalo is very interesting. Not sure how I feel about this, because the package would be huge. ROR would be an excellent option except he has a contract for eternity and is young, assuming that would take Parayko. Not interested. Reinhardt probably slightly cheaper, maybe something that can be acquired in pieces, but still expensive pieces. He would be Stastny's replacement next year.

Mikael Backlund is an interesting target, but Calgary needs him, and I'm sure they'd do something like Backlund + Brouwer for whatever, which is like, eating a tasty candy bar filled with acid and razor blades.

If Tavares is on the market I'd make that #1. If JVR is on the market that is my #2, Pavelski #3, OEL #4..I'm not sure where I can put another left winger into that priority order...maybe in the top 10? That is just STL's strength. Hard to give up futures to upgrade one of the team's strongest areas when other areas can be improved with those same assets.

Good points but JVR is a LW... you just contradicted your "where should I put a LW on your priority" and I would much rather have Hoffman at 3 years 5.2 mil than JVR who will want at least 6 years 6 mil.
I totally agree Tavares should be #1 priority in off season if he hits the market.
And do not think Reinhart would be much of an improvement over just having Thomas take Stastny's spot next season. But would not be opposed to getting him at all.
Agree ROR will take too much and Backlund most likely resigns in Calgary.

Genuinely curious what you're basing value on? Last year only 40 players in the NHL scored 60 points or more... Additionally, Kane isn't moving for less than a 1st + good prospect (just the price for a goal scoring rental). Ryan O'Reilly wouldn't take Parayko, because ROR has an awful contract. Ekman Larsson for Fabbri and Berglund? Really interested to hear how you value players like Berglund so high. Berglunds are a dime a dozen - Stajan, Bonino, Zack Smith, Brian Boyle, Vermette. There are plenty of players who can play 3C, win 47% of their faceoffs, average 35 points/year, and sport a slightly above average corsi (career .8 CF relative).

You named 5 3cs, how many are available?

What would it cost to get them? Something like what Hanzal hauled in?

Kane will get what the market dictates, and a market saturated with 1-way scoring wingers makes the price of 1-way scoring wingers go down.

Sabres will be lucky if they get a 1st and a B prospect, but I predict a 2nd and a lower B RFA NHLer, because anybody who wants Evander Kane can just call a dozen other teams if they don't like the price and get a comparable player.

JVR is exceptional, and that is why he hasn't moved yet. Toronto would be imbeciles to not resign. JVR is heads above the rest of the market in terms of contribution to a winning team. JVR would be worth a hefty trade package if he were interested in signing.

Thomas needs another 2-3 years. He can take the ice time next year, but he won't be able to contribute in a positive manner until he is 22-24. That is just the reality of hockey.

Everybody compares Thomas to Bo Horvat. Check out Bo's 19 y/o and 20 y/o years. That isn't good enough. It's just reality.

STL is ready to win now. They cannot just slap in a 19 y/o 2C and do that. They will have to ease him in while he develops, and that likely involves 1 more year of juniors. Bo Horvat would have done the same if he wasn't on a club without depth and a cup window. Same with Walman, Kostin, and Kyrou. They will all get a chance, but reality says they need to be 22-24 to be able to be a positive contribution.

There are a ton of players just like Berglund. Name other wingers who score 25+ goals yearly? The market isn't saturated with those guys... What dozen other teams are going to give up a dude who scores 25+ goals? Your logic makes no sense. Hanzal at the time was considered a top 6 center and is a better play driver than Berglund.

1) JVR is a good player, but if you look at points/game, Gamescores, corsi, point shares etc etc - him, Hoffman, Kane are all relatively similar.

2) Why does a player need to be 22-24 to make an impact? IF they're talented players and make an impact, then age shouldn't be the reason they don't play. That's some old school nonsense.