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pawnjohn

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May 22, 2017
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St. Louis Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 12, 2018 at 11:42 a.m.
Thread: Ottawa... STL.. How you guys doing?
The blues trade makes sense value wise, but I don't think the blues could stomach it. Schwartz is a 55-60 points winger before we acquired Schenn and is looking like a 65-70 point player with him compared to ROR 60-65 center. Schwartz has an injury history that is a little worrisome (seems to always have a freak accident), he is one of the very few "drivers" we have on our team. Obviously ROR plays the harder position, but with the chemistry Schwartz & Schenn had, they were both 70+ players, and Schenn didn't look nearly as good when Schwartz went down. While the blues are deep at LW now, it's because we have Schwartz anchoring the top slot. Without Schwartz, we have a declining Steen, who while still is a solid top-6 LW, is trending down; and we have a huge question mark in Fabbri coming off 2 ACL surgeries.

We have a bunch of LHS LWers in the system, but none project as sure fire top6 players, and none nearly at Schwartzy's level. Kostin could be a top6 option in the future and is LHS, but he is a still a question mark and plays more on RW.


While having ROR-Schenn down the middle would be a solid 1-2, I don't think significant drop in our LW depth would be worth it. If schenn turns into a 50-55 point center without schwartz instead of 70+ with, then it is going to look really bad, not to mention if Fabbri doesn't return as a top6 player or Steen's declines even faster.

Looking at things more deeply, I don't think there is a way the blues can trade for ROR without opening a huge hole somewhere else. It is likely going to take a deal like the above Schwartz+small add, Parayko, or Dunn ++, all of which either open a huge hole that we are not ready to fill (Schwartz/Parayko) or open a hole and deplete other important aspects (Dunn++). While he may never reach the level of ROR, we also have a promising Center prospect in Thomas who projects as a top6 center. The blues would probably be better off looking at a lesser 2C and see what they have in Thomas, instead of opening a huge hole for a 1C like ROR to play him at 2C.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2018 at 12:01 p.m.
Thread: Washington owes us
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LGBstl</b></div><div>without Washington's 1st in the Shatty trade we probably are not able to get Schenn... sure Oshie is obviously a much better player than Brouwer but the one year we had Brouwer we had our best season and made it to WCF and then did not overpay and resign him and may not have been able to resign Oshie anyways.

Not saying I agree with the trade because I would have kept Backes and Oshie and let Steen and Berglund walk, just saying its not all as bad as you think it is just comparing players.</div></div>


I meant it all as a sarcastic conspiracy theory, not the typical "anti-army" bitterness you see most other places lol

The Shatty trade was a rental, so expecting more really wasn't in the cards, especially with him only wanting to go to the Rangers. It would still have been possible to pull of the Schenn trade with one of our other 2 firsts last year and this one. We just wouldn't have ending up with all of Schenn, Thomas, and Kostin while dumping Lehtera. The way that all played out, I wouldn't change a thing about it, even with giving up the 14OA this year.

Minus the "needing change" narrative, the Oshie trade was just bad value no matter how you slice it. We just as likely could have still made it to the WCF with Oshie, and possibly farther. That run had a lot more to do with Elliott being on fire and Fabrri/Parayko/Ed joining the team than it was Brouwer's game seven goal. A line of Fabbri-Stastny-Oshie would have been just as or more effective as the Fabbri-Stastny-Brouwer line.

If we embrace the "retool" one year earlier instead of moving Oshie, we would also not have this gaping holes at 2 &amp; 3RW we are hoping prospects will fill sooner than later.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2018 at 11:01 a.m.
Thread: Blues winning the cup next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>scarbrow21</b></div><div>Not CAP compliant. Missing two players from the roster (which is allowed I might add but not smart and no team does this). Also you're not accounting for bonuses which means you're likely below the CAP already. Team looks dangerous but someone will need to take less money on their deal to be compliant or another trade has to happen</div></div>

We could run 1-2 players short on opening night, allowing bouwmeester to be put on LTIR and then call up the players we need. There is also the option to bridge Edmundson for 1-2 years for closer to 2/yr if we need cap for one year. Armstrong has a pretty good track record of occasionally running a roster with 22, especially during home stretches, to minimize the daily cap to help stay under.

I believe we are going to run into an Elliott situation with Hutton, where he wants to be a #1 somewhere instead of being back up to the likes of Gubauer. Unless we convinced him its going to be a 1A/1B and the better player will garner the most starts, I think he goes elsewhere. Replace him with Husso or a vet on a minimal salary around 1 and thats a little bit more cap savings added as well.

Overall it looks good. Giving up Kyrou is going to sting, but to move on from Sobotka and getting to keep the 2018 first (to be used elsewhere), i think that deal works out well.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 5, 2018 at 5:13 p.m.
Thread: NYI STL fans in here.
I wouldn't do that from the Blues perspective. If JT is going to be hitting the market, then he is more than likely going to field options from multiple teams no matter what. Trading a recent 1st round pick and one of the only RHS prospects we have just to talk to him a little earlier is too much of a risk.

Even with adding JT to the lineup, the blues are still going to be looking for a top6 RW and Kostin/TT + 2018 1st could be the start for that player. A better option for the blues would be to use TT + 1st for RW help and then pitch JT that he will be the "missing piece" we need to really compete.

If we were to receive a requirements list and fulfilling it meant he was almost certain to sign, then I would make the trade as a sign of good faith to JT about how much we wanted him, but just to increase the time we can talk to him by a couple weeks isn't worth that risk.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 5, 2018 at 9:36 a.m.
Thread: Dynamic top 6 without giving up Kyrou, Thomas, Thompson
Don't think the Tampa trade will work. The lightening are only trading Johnson for cap space reasons and because he has a NTC kick in on July 1st. They aren't taking on 3.8/year (1.2 in savings) to take on a player that doesn't fill a need that also has a NTC that would make it difficult to move if they felt the need to. I also think they are looking for some young D help, so Schmaltz or Walman may be enticing for them depending how they would view them.

The Hoffman deal sounds great from the blues perspective, but I don't know if Ottawa would do it. Sobotka I assume is a filler and is there for our cap reasons, Barbashev is a decent prospect but doesn't hold much value, Fabbri is a question mark until he proves otherwise, but a potentially cheap top6 forward is going to be attractive to a gm like Dorian, and the 2nd isn't very high currency for a scored like hoffman. I think at minimum we would have to bump Barbashev up to Thompson or the 2nd to a 1st (2019 in this case since we traded Tampa our 2018).

If we didn't end up trading Bergy to Tampa, I would look at switching him and Sobotka and seeing if he would wave, as Ottawa seemed to be interested in him previously. And then use Sobotka as an extra trade chip for a mid round pick to a different team.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 4, 2018 at 4:26 p.m.
Thread: How to improve
Edmundson isn't signing for 3 years at 1.25. He will be stepping in as our 1LD next year with Bouw probably missing the begining/most of the season. This year he was already taking over most of those duties. His TOI/Points/Usage continue to go up, and he had good chemistry with Petro. He will either be bridged 1-2 years are 2.5-3 if Army feels he needs extra cap from to add Tavaras + top6 addition, or he will be locked up 5-6 between 4-4.5.

Fabbri isn't getting 3 years at 3 million coming off back-to-back ACL injuries and not playing for 1.5 years. He will probably sign a 2 year prove-it deal between 1.5-2.3. This provides him security if he gets injured again, and gives the blues flexibility in the event the same happens. It also prevents the blues from being backed into a corner if he returns to form and lights it up next year before having to resign him.

We also aren't going to trade our 1LD for what would be our 3RD that can't stay healthy and has a higher cap hit + signing an inferior LD at 4m/year. Basically Edmunson + Bortuzzo/Schmaltz &gt;&gt;&gt; Bogosian + Dehaan + cap inceases.

And we can get value for Sobotka on his own without having to trade our best LHD.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 4, 2018 at 1:48 p.m.
Thread: ROR + Silf
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>eskimo</b></div><div>Who will play in the top 6? If we're selling ROR like that, I don't have blind faith in the children of Rochester, and I certainly don't want to see Pominville and Girgensons there. LHD Scandella, McCabe, Dahlin (maybe), Guhle, Pilut, Beaulieu, why we need Wallman, Sobotka garbage, Fabbri good player, but as I said, his health is confused, the first round of very late would still, we can to exchange ROR better or at all not to change.</div></div>

While he wouldn't be a "need," Sobotka is far from garbage. Again, he is included here to help alleviate some of the cap complications from taking on ROR 7.5/year. He is a very serviceable 3C/LW and solid PK'er. He also only has 2 years left and no trade clauses, allowing him to be dealt if he isn't a fit. I don't know your prospect pool that well, but a combo of LW- Eichel - Okposo, LW- Middlestadt- Reinhart, LW-Sobotka-RW with Nylander &amp; Fabbri filling in on the LW positions. Using sobotka in a defensive role allows the Middlstadt-Reinhart to be sheltered a bit offensively as the same time.

In terms of Walman, outside of Dahlin &amp; Scandella, none of those guys prevent Walman from being a need. Dahlin, while being LHS plays mostly on as a RD. Running Dahlin/Risto on the Right side is the making of a solid D. Scandella would make a great partner for either of them as a top pair LD. But McCabe &amp; Beaulieu are both poor options for top4 and have minimal offensive instincts. PIlut hasn't played in North America, so counting on him is risky. Guhle looks pretty solid, but definitely not head and shoulders above Walman.

In terms of projections, Walman is a top4 with top pair potential. His skating is excellent and his shot/offensive instincts are very good. He pushed Dunn for making the blues roster at camp last year as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 4, 2018 at 11:06 a.m.
Thread: Realistic possiblity
I don't think either trade is enough for those players. Both teams are looking to improve from last year, Buffalo wants out of the basement and Carolina wants to push for the playoffs. There needs to be a significant piece going to buffalo for them to bite on trading ROR. It is going to take at least 1 of Fabbri/Dunn/Kyrou/Thomas in order for them to even listen. They aren't going to take pure futures (late 1st at that), Two "meh" prospects in Blais &amp; Schmaltz, and an average third liner.

Carolina isn't trading a 25-30 goal scorer for a 3rd line LW/C, a goalie prospect, and a 2nd. Even if he is just a one year rental. At minimum they could get a 1st and better prospect if they just hold onto him until the deadline.

Outside of that, I don't know why we would overpay Maroon to then play both Steen and Fabbri on their offsides. Steen is way better on LW than RW and putting Fabs on his off wing after being out for 1.5 years just seems like putting him at a disadvantage.

With this roster we still only have 1 RHS in the top 9 and only 2 in the entire forward lines. We need to be targeting more RHS forwards to balance this out or we are still going to be running a predictable and unproductive power play.

Adjusting the trade values, ROR/Skinner are both good targets in their own right, but the combination still leaves us unbalanced and having too many LWers and not enough RWers (even though Skinner can play some RW). I combination of ROR/Silfverberg or Tyler Johnson/Skinner helps add elements we need while balancing the LHS/RHS ratio.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2017 at 2:45 p.m.
Thread: Tampa Blockbuster
The defense scares me a bit, but Petro can handle 27+ on the right and Bortz is a solid on the bottom pair. Schmaltz is green but has potential as an offensive top-4 dman and has been well groomed in college/AHL. Ed's growth will help with covering Schmaltz. Gunnar is still a solid bottom pair and can play top-4 in a pinch. Bo is aging but still a solid on D and has played more physical since his skating a slowed. We also have Dunn and Walman knocking on the doorstep in the next couple years as Gunnar and Bo both transition out. We also have Lindbohm who can play bottom pair and Mikkola overseas in the future as well.

Acquiring another LW isn't ideal. But I believe Drouin being a dynamic offensive player makes up for it. Considering Drouin/Steen/Fabbri/Berglund have all played on RW as well, I think they could pull it off.