John Carlson should win, runner up is P.K. Subban, and nobody else comes close.
To explain why, let's look at this little argument:
Quoting: Ajp_18
Josi is also the captain and I think he played a better 200 foot game as PK is more offensive both are good I just the Josi is a little better in my option.
It's the Norris, not the Hart. Captaincy is irrelevant to who played better as a defenseman. 200 foot game, eh? Good point, but..... there's a stat for that.
Josi starts 9% more of his shifts in the offensive zone than Subban to end up with basically the same shot differential and basically the same offensive output (Subban had two more goals and four more assists, even though Josi got sheltered starts, meaning he got more opportunities to play an 80 foot game, while Subban was more likely to have to carry the mail to get anything done.
And speaking of sheltered starts, Hedman started 54% of his shifts in the offensive zone. He's winning an informal cap friendly poll based on no explanation
Carlson only started 48% of his shifts ahead of the red line, and, while he's known for his power play prowess, still had one more point at evens than sheltered hedman.
Let's make a table for the top ten in points, and see who had to actually get the puck out of danger to get anything done.
Name P OZSpct
Carlson 68 48.1
Klingberg 67 52.6
Burns 67 61.5
Ghost 65 57.5
Hedman 63 54.1
Karlsson 62 55.1
Doughty 60 51.3
Krug 59 65.2
Subban 59 42.5
Barrie 57 62.4
The Norris is about being the best defenseman. Offense is part of that, and nobody has won without being top ten among defensemen in points since Rod Langway (who took the Caps from being the worst expansion team in the history of sports to a perennial playoff club--no one this year achieved anything quite that amazing, so we'll stick with the top ten guys in points). Now, I know they don't usually vote based on these crazy "advanced stats," but now that they've been counting this stuff for several years, hockey journalists should look at it and easily understand: if you mostly go on the ice after the real defensemen got the puck over the red line and got a face off for you, then you are not the best defenseman in the NHL. That much should be completely obvious.
So the only two candidates I would even remotely consider are Carlson and Subban.
At that point it seems like it comes down to personal preference or other stats, but there are some big differences in their situations this year. Subban's partner on the blueline was another perennial honorable mention norris option.
Carlson didn't have a steady partner. He started the year with Brooks Orpik, but when Orpik's walker blew a wheel, Carlson skated with rookie and recent 7th round draft pick Christian Djoos. The Caps probably wanted to call up recent first round pick Lucas Johansen, but they were pretty tight up against the salary cap. At the trade deadline, the Caps gave Chicago a 3rd round pick for Michal Kempny, a 27 year old in his second year in the NHL, who then became Carlson's defense partner.
Nashville is a model of stability, which is a testament to what Subban, Josi, Ekholm and Rinne achieved last Spring in the playoffs. Washington, last summer, after another loss to the Penguins, lost Vegas' #1 defenseman (by Time on Ice, Schmidt) in the expansion draft. They lost New York's #2 defenseman by points, Kevin Shattenkirk in free agency. And the Caps last summer also lost Montreal's #2 defenseman by time on ice and Carlson's most frequent partner throughout his career, Karl Alzner, who immediately told a reporter it would be nice to finally have a chance to win the Stanley Cup.
Washington lost half of team's worth of defense last summer, and Carlson was paired with three different guys this season, including two of the least and one of the most experienced players in the NHL. He stepped up with a huge individual effort and led Washington to win their division over some pretty decent teams.
So, yeah, your poll is cute. Hedman's hair is cute. Have fun with that. The Norris trophy belongs to John Carlson this year.