I like Carlson but no way in hell am I even getting close to $9.5M, that's a sever overpayment. I wouldn't even go over $8M.

Grubauer will get you so much more than a 3rd. He'll either get you a 1st or two 2nds.

Wilson won't cost more than $3.5M.

Kempny won't get more than $1.5M

Pass on DSP.

Since Orpik is a dump and that is not enough for Grubauer, Botterill calls up MacLellan and offers Larsson, 2019 2nd and Hudson Faschings for both Orpik and Grubauer?

So... would you trade Grubauer, Orpik, Beagle, Chiasson, and Green for Carlson and a 6th? Maybe.... I don't know.

If John Carlson commands Ovechkin money, on an eight year deal, from more than one team, then the Caps could also sign and trade him for a top ten pick, after they trade a 3rd for Mike Green's rights, and sign Green for three years. This lets them keep Beagle, add a pick, and not end up paying the last couple years of Carlson's contract.

Orpik is currently first in the playoffs in plus minus, first among playoff defensemen in hits, third among playoff defensemen in shot blocks, 25th among playoff defensemen in points, and first among Capitals players, all time, in SCF GWG. On a one year deal with only 4.5M in salary owed, and a 5.5M cap hit, he could provide leadership and stability to just about any team. After his game winning goal, the hockey blogosphere is exploding with all things Orpik, but there are also articles about him in:

The Dalls Morning News https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-stars/stars/2018/05/31/brooks-orpik-washington-capitals-stanley-cup-final-goal-craig-ludwig
USA Today: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/allen/2018/05/31/stanley-cup-2018-brooks-orpik-capitals-golden-knights-game-2/658582002/
Buffalo News: http://buffalonews.com/2018/05/30/mike-harrington-orpik-an-unlikely-offensive-hero-as-caps-even-series/

Of course there's a good chance that these are just hockey reporters catching a good story, but if hockey reporters enjoy close relationships with team officials, there's always some chance that their writeups indicate what players a certain team might be interested in. I searched Orpik Arizona, and Orpik Phoenix and got nothing, so if the Coyotes have any friends in the press, they certainly aren't using them to telegraph any interest in Orpik. Obviously his trade value could be much better if he's going to a team that values his skill, experience, and commitment, than if he's just getting shuffled off somewhere. Also Orpik googlenopes: Toronto, Winnipeg, New York, Los Angeles, San Jose, Carolina, Calgary, Philadelphia.... So I think if there's a team pursuing him right now, it's most likely one of the two that's giving him headlines. I don't see Buffalo or Dallas bidding up more than a 4th pick for the 38 year old year of Orpik's contract, but paying a 3rd to get rid of the guy who has scored 100% of the Stanley Cup Final game winning goals in Capitals history doesn't sound like a great deal.

Also, Johansen needs minutes to develop. He should probably get a year on his strongside in Hershey and see if he can't put up 50 points in the AHL. Jerabek can eat just as much popcorn at a lower cap hit, and as a 27 year old average player, is just as good of an injury replacement next year as Johansen, so Johansen needs to be in the minors getting big reps, and getting good, until there's actually a spot for him.

Orpik looked like a cap dump as of December. He's currently an old, but effective defenseman and leader, kind of like a Chris Chelios. I think if the Caps don't think they can afford Beagle then Larsson is pretty intriguing, but it's possible Dallas gives a 5th for Orpik, the Caps trade Grubauer for two 2nds, and then offer a 4th for Larsson if he doesn't have a spot in Buffalo? I don't see Fasching filling a big need, but if Buffalo wants to dump him, Hershey's all about some depth.

Then the Caps trade Carlsson, signed to the above stupid contract, for a 1st, and trade a 3rd for dibs on three more years of Mike Green, and sign Beagle anyway.



Agree on Grubauer being valuable. He's not Holtby but he did push Bobrovsky to overtime in back to back games, and since Bob has two Vezina's, that makes Grubauer pretty good for a young guy. He won a lot of games this year and by some stats was the most likely to stop a random shot in the league. Holtby's a different kind of person under pressure, but for a team that just wants to make the playoffs, Grubauer is worth a couple 2nds.

Kempny has a couple really good assists in the finals. DSP has four goals and an assist in the playoffs (43rd in goals, 75th in points), including one in game six to help stave off elimination against Tampa. He's been pretty good. I bet they're both welcome to return if they can fit with the team's salary structure, after the bigger puzzle at right D gets solved, or they could each get around that 2M mark somewhere, and Washington, coming off an appearance in the finals, can attract some pretty good FAs to fill their spots. There is no shortage of left shot defensemen on this summer's market, so Washington might miss out on Kempny, only to get someone cheaper, and better.

Or what about just Orpik for Larsson, straight up?

Orpik+3rd for a 6th is rather accurate for what the Caps will need to do to move that contract (without a bad contract coming back).

Caps can get a 2nd for Grubauer. Maybe something like a 2nd and a 4th. A 1st isn't going to happen.

I am in a minority among Sabre CF GM, I really like Larsson as my 4th line center. He plays hard (49 penalty minutes this past year), he wins face offs (close to 55%), had the ability score up until this year, and despite spending about 55% of his ice time with Wilson or Nolan or PK he still managed to get more assists than Connor Sheary (who spent 62% of his ice time with Kessel or Crosby). I thought he could fill the same role with Washington as an inexpensive 4th line center. Earlier I saw a trade of Orpik and a 3rd for a 6th, I sort of felt that Larsson's value could be a 3rd (look what Regier got Paul Gaustad) and I added a second presuming 2 thirds equal a 2nd, so I was essentially trading 2 seconds for Grubauer. So I ask you to please make an offer for both Orpik and Grubauer to the Sabres. But maybe your suggested Orpik trade will have additional benefits of being an on ice coach for Ristolainen and Dahlin.

I have noticed for a long time that you do not play fair with any of your comments, you always use facts to support your position, no one does that here, we just want to get into meaningless "I do not feel that way" discussions. Now you better stop doing this or I will have to report you.

What's the difference between an old guy worth a 4th and a young guy worth a 3rd worth? A 5th? I totally agree with you on all the reasons why Larsson is a valuable, young 4C with Beagle-like potential, less expensive, and maybe even with a higher ceiling (Beagle has hit twelve goals in a season, but didn't reach Larsson's career high of 10 until he turned 29)? Larsson's -30 this year could be a red flag, and his relative corsi of -7.5% compared to teammates could too, but his 31% offensive zone starts on a defensively developing team that had a lot of injuries on its blueline make his 42% corsi an accomplishment, not a weakness. His faceoffs are right where Beagle was at 25 years old, so he'd be an ideal apprentice to the 4C who just carried the Caps to the finals, or, in a pinch, a not-terrible replacement for the 32 year old pending UFA, who might just get paid a lot on a market that's thin on faceoff specialists (a pretty randomly valued, but scarce commodity).

Or, instead of throwing in a 5th.... if the Caps find themselves really up against the cap after solving the puzzle at RHD, do they include Beagle's UFA rights, and maybe get back a spare AHL defender?

My head is about to explode, to many statistics. We all know he sucks and that is all I care about, who cares about offensive zone starts, that should not matter. OK you convinced me trade him for 7th. Or just put him on waivers nobody will want him.

Lol. How about Orpik and a 6th for Larsson? https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/714777

I think you have definitely convinced me that Orpik would be a huge asset for the Sabres. I just had a really dumb thought, his regular season was not that great, I wonder if he sort of did not play as hard so he had energy for the playoffs. Do you remember when Peter Forsberg took an entire year off so he could heal and be ready for the playoffs? BTW I have seen several WSH CF GM's trading Connolly, is a rumor regarding this? If there is what is the asking price? Is there a deal for Orpik and Connolly? Thank you for your help!

https://twitter.com/LukeAdomanis/status/1002613648475459585

Who the heck is Luke Adomanis and why do I care about his opinion? The answers: A nobody like me, and I don't.

A 1st isn't going to happen.

Did... did you see his tweet comparing the goalie trades and how Grubauer compares to them? You know, using facts and such to make his point.

Talbot, Lehner, and Schneider were under contract when traded.
Jones went for the 29th, Anderson the 30th. 1st, true, but barely, but 1sts.
Varlamov was square in the zone.

So, of the 6 that he compares to, 3 don't fit the situation, and 2 others just barely break my "1st not gonna happen" comment. Meaning, through history... 1 trade solidly counters my position, 2 others shaky counter.

That is why they call them opinions though.

Connolly didn't have any playoff points last year, so I think I ginned up a dozen random trades trying to drop him for just anybody, and maybe a few other Caps fans joined me. He's got five points this postseason, and one year left at a 1.5M cap hit, so as the Caps shoehorn Carlson back in or try to replace him, he's probably staying. Unless you're looking for pieces in a Risto blockbuster.... which, if I were Buffalo, would be a non-starter.

And yeah. If Orpik gets hurt this summer, I'm sure the Caps won't rush him back.

But I think his weak first half was due to playing over 20 minutes a night with 60% defensive zone starts through the halfway mark. After that he started playing 18 minutes a night, like old guys do, and his stats got better. He's a good mentor, a good leader, and someone who can throw a hit every period without getting out of position, but you're right that at his age, endurance is an issue.