The better way of creating cap space

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: GSGHARRIS

Team: 2018-19 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 11, 2018

Published: Jun. 11, 2018

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Euge is probably putting pressure on Dorion to make some cap space to save him money and he want's to go that the easy way by moving Karlsson and Hoffman. The duo could cost ~17 million/season when they both get raises (E.Kane kind of set the bar for Hoffman). Karlsson 6.5 to 10 is 3.5 million. Duchene likely a 2million raise, Stone a 4 Million raise. (9.5 Million total). No one is going to help us by taking Ryan's contract as a favour. It would be like CHI asking us to take Seabrook and us not asking for their 8th overall selection. Smith, Pageau, Ceci (10-10.5Million) already cover it. We only need one of: Boro, Claesson, Harpur (1.2-0.8*-0.75 roughly 1.5-2million wasted) for the bottom pair on the left side. Pyatt and Burrows (3.6Million) expire this season and the only notable contracts that we need to extend next summer are Dzingle and White.

Quick Maths 9.5 Needed by next off season.
7 Contracts = 15.5 million roughly. Only 3 of these contracts really need to be replaced. 2 of them by ELC players and Ceci's spot is the only tricky one to replace. Pyatt, Burrows are the 13th forward players and we can walk away from Claesson and move Boro or Harpur because they don't have a roster spot. Ceci, Pageau and Smith are the only ones of the 7 that hold a spot. Yes, we need lots of RHD help beyond Karlsson, Yes, Pageau is a great centerman and fan favourite and yes Smith shows up and plays all 82 games hard but I'd walk from all three before Hoffman or Karlsson and replace them with the wave of youth we have coming up Smith - Chaplik/Formenton, JGP - White/Brown, Ceci - ...we are a little weak here. Wideman is a stretch in a top4 spot and Jaros isn't there yet either.

We have a little bit of time before we need to worry about Chabot, White, Dzingle, Brown.

I'm also moving Gaborik into Lupul's condo at the corner of LTIR dr and our doctors will never clear you trail. So the insurance pays the rest of his contract and there is no cap hit. Another 5Million opened.

We were promised by PD that youth will play a bigger part of this season and we have competent talent coming up.

I don't really know much about Sturtz but Brady Tkachuk is getting tons of praise for 8G31pts in 40GP in the NCAA as an 18yr old. Sturtz went 18G27pt / 22G37pt / 14G40pts in 37GP each season. I would have to imagine that at 23yrs old he would be able to (like wolanin) be able to step in an competently fill Burrow's 4th line RW spot. Or fight Gagne for that spot.

At 4th overall I like any of Zadina, Walhstrom, Boquist/Hughes. Personally, I would pass on Tkachuck not because I don't think he will be a great power forward but I feel like the ceiling of those other 4 is much higher and if you have a top 5 pick you should be reaching for a star.

Folin, Franson, Prout and Wideman are all options to fill a RHD spot on the cheap. Karlsson will have to continue playing 27mins a night but at least we will have a break out Chabot season to off set that horrible RHD depth if Ceci is moved.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Ceci, Cody	1	$4,000,000
Claesson, Fredrik	1	$800,000
Paul, Nicholas	1	$800,000
Stone, Mark	8	$7,500,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Wideman, Chris		8	$800,000

Trades

OTT

Not all need to be traded. Some contracts we can walk away from this summer or next.

ANA

Retained Salary Transactions

Dion Phaneuf: $1,750,000 (25%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2018
2019
2020

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
20	$80,000,000	$52,902,499	$0	$2,537,500	$27,097,501

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hoffman, Mike $5,187,500$5,187,500 LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Duchene, Matt $6,000,000$6,000,000 RW, C UFA - 1	Dzingel, Ryan $1,800,000$1,800,000 LW, RW, C UFA - 1
Chlapik, Filip $728,333$728,333 ($182,500$182K) C UFA - 2	White, Colin $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) C, RW UFA - 1	Stone, Mark $7,500,000$7,500,000 RW UFA - 1
Pääjärvi, Magnus $900,000$900,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Brown, Logan $863,333$863,333 ($710,000$710K) C, LW RFA - 3	Ryan, Bobby $7,250,000$7,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Formenton, Alex $753,333$753,333 LW RFA - 4		Sturtz, Andrew $767,500$767,500 ($182,500$182K) RW UFA - 2
	Luchuk, Aaron $759,167$759,167 ($182,500$182K) C UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Wolanin, Christian $925,000$925,000 LD UFA - 1	Karlsson, Erik $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Anderson, Craig $4,750,000$4,750,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Chabot, Thomas $863,333$863,333 ($360,000$360K) LD UFA - 2	Wideman, Chris $800,000$800,000 RD UFA - 1	Condon, Mike $2,400,000$2,400,000 G UFA - 2
	Jaros, Christian $755,000$755,000 ($70,000$70K) RD UFA - 2
Harpur, Ben $725,000$725,000 LD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		MacArthur, Clarke $4,650,000$4,650,000 LW M-NTC UFA - 2
		Gáborík, Marián $4,875,000$4,875,000 RW UFA - 3

Jun. 11, 2018 at 12:06 p.m.

Claesson4Norris

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 17,215

Likes: 12,253

If you're going to move Pageau and Ceci, they could make up a package to Chicago for Connor Murphy. would solve your top 4 RHD conundrum.

Jun. 11, 2018 at 12:40 p.m.

ThatGuy

Sports and Tacos

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 2,004

Likes: 601

I agree, Great Analysis!!

Jun. 11, 2018 at 12:42 p.m.

GSGHARRIS

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 150

Likes: 17

Quoting: Claesson4Norris

If you're going to move Pageau and Ceci, they could make up a package to Chicago for Connor Murphy. would solve your top 4 RHD conundrum.

Ceci will likely get paid at least Murphy money if not north of 4Mil. Not sure Chicago adds Pageau's 3M salary on top when they have Toews, Anisimov, Schmaltz when they are typically tight to the cap. I have thought about a Murphy Ceci swap before. Similar player/Roles but hopefully Murphy plays better in Ottawa than Ceci has and his contract is likely better than what Ceci's would be.

Pageau could slide in behind Stepan and Strome in Arizona with Ceci for Demers too.

Could probably grab M. Green UFA on a shorter 3-4mil contract as well. Not sure if it's worth selling the farm for Hamilton or Dumba. (in the sense of adding him to the core of Karlsson, Chabot, Duchene, Stone, Hoffman) Would take offers of Jaros, Batherson, Brown, and a 1st rounder we don't have anymore. So add in one of Formenton, Wolanin, Luchuk in lieu of. Too much here that we would get burned on later.

Jun. 11, 2018 at 1:10 p.m.

Green4D4

... We're a "Team"..

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 2,457

Likes: 1,164

Nice analysis on this. I agree with most of this if not all of it.

It is more than likely that Hoffman is out on draft day. He has an incredibly cap friendly contract and can score 20 goals on any line on any team. We've seen that in Ottawa (thinking back when he was on a line with Pageau and Pyatt and then again when we was with Ryan and Turris and then again with Duchene and Dzingel). Ottawa can more than likely get a first and a 3rd for him at least. That saves almost 11 million in actual cap space over the next 2 years.

If Vancouver loses out on the ROR sweepstakes, I believe they'll go for a guy like smith or Pageau to fill their defensive centre needs. Not only that, both Pageau and Smith are a lot cheaper than ROR albeit a lesser quality player than ROR. That saves another good chunk of money moving either of those 2 players, if not both. Pageau = 6 million over 2 years and smith is about 9 million of 3 years. Both = almost 7 in just the first year.

I think the Ottawa Senators organization overvalues Ceci a little too much. He is... sub par and would be a great 5-6 d-man. Problem is, he is playing top 4 minutes and is doing a really bad job of it. All the stats are going against the kid. Paying him north of 3.25 million is a stretch. Trading his rights along with one of the guys mentioned above would probably sweeten the pot by a lot.

Gaborik is LTIR fodder for sure but Dorion words regarding him makes me worry. He'll be coming back as 37/38 year old and with a fresh new back scar from season ending surgery on a team with not a lot of drive for a playoff spot. I think Gaboriks days are numbered and will most likely end his career on the LTIR, saving a bunch of money for the Eugene in the process (as with what is happening with MacArthur). Burrows is going to ride the pine or be traded for a conditional 7th at the draft. I really don't know what was going through Dorion's head when he made that deal...

Karlsson is the main focus this off season. I don't see him being moved on the draft floor unless a team really throws Dorion an offer he just simply can't refuse. I think he'll make it to July 1 and be offered 10ish + million dollars. If he doesn't accept, he'll be moved come TDL, if not sooner, to a contending team.

Jun. 11, 2018 at 1:24 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,501

Likes: 23,233

You're right, Sens might just be better to see how many (if any) RFAs are to be signed in the summer of 2019. It's going to embarrassing for the Sens when the 1st round pick in 2019 is going to the Avs....might very be top 5.

Jun. 11, 2018 at 3:09 p.m.

GSGHARRIS

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 150

Likes: 17

Quoting: Green4D4Again

In order to qualify Ceci he would have to be given a raise. Can't remember if it is 5 or 10% but it is part of the CBA. Choosing not to qualify (and him not electing arbitration) is also not good asset management. Ceci is looking at 4Mil or north of it this summer. Arb would be 1-2 max however.

Jun. 11, 2018 at 3:11 p.m.

GSGHARRIS

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 150

Likes: 17

Quoting: Green4D4Again

This is Spezza all over again. Paying Green, Michalek, Hemsky, Neil, Regin, etc and electing to move on from Spezza because of money. First line center or first pairing dman round and round we go

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