I'm just going to go ahead and say that anyone posting on this topic with any degree of certainty can go fly a kite. The simple fact is we don't know what Matthews number will be.

If Kucherov hit UFA right now he'd be $11m probably. He took less to stay in Tampa. Why? That's anyone's guess...but likely reasons include:

a) He likes playing there
b) He was willing to take a lower salary in order to play for a cup contending team
c) State taxes DO play a role. Might not be a deal breaker but certainly helps sway an argument

I don't think it's fair to say that his deal sets the market place.

However, unless someone on here is in direct communication with Auston, we don't know what his priorities are. I believe he would be well within his right to start negotiations north of $12.5m. He is worth McDavid level money given the cap increase and his share of it. So if his first priority is to make as much cash as possible over his career...then a deal probably gets done between $11m-$12.5

If, however, he's of a similar mindset of Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov...all willing to take below market value in order to get everyone signed and compete for a cup...then maybe Auston is willing to take under $10m. Maybe he's willing to do that for 8 years...maybe he's more comfortable doing that for 2-4 years.

Either way...I think either outcome is possible. Logic says somewhere in the middle...say $10.5...makes sense...but without knowing what motivates him more...let's just agree that both scenarios are possible and there's arguments that make sense at any number.

I really questioned if "Shanahan warned them". Players have their own agenda and why should they take less because Leafs management want it? As a player, I understand the cap and implications of it, but management shouldn't be "warning me" of my CBA rights. Great way to piss players off.....telling them YOU should be taken less.

So just because Kuch got 9.5 mean Matthews will? Dougthy 10.5 McDavid 12.5 JT 11 Eichel 10

The cap is going up to so players will get more $$

I don't think you realize theres a difference of forcing a pay cut and advising them that the cap is a hard cap and like crosby did in pittsburgh, Stamkos did in Tampa you may now or in your future need to sacrifice some salary to have a deep enough team to win a cup. I don't think you realize teams probably have similar conversations with players alot. You don't think Mario explained to crosby how they need cap space to try and build a dynasty? No one is forcing them to take a pay cut so how would talking them about the sacrifices that are needed to be part of something great triggering CBA issues?? no one is saying they are forcing this on them but if they "realistically can keep the core together" dubas said that wouldn't that mean they have had conversations about what they are looking for in salary and have a good idea about what they want for salary? They can't sign a extention til the final year of a contract but that doesn't mean that they can't informally chat of what they really want out of hockey and the sacrifices all the great players have to take to be part of a great deep team.

I believe Shanahan/Dubas had conversations with their key players prior to going after Tavares. I don't think the conversation included a 'warning', so much as a feeling out of what they thought about the leafs going after him...their willingness to help in his recruitment, and at least some alluding to the fact that, if they were successful in signing JT, that the available cap space might be divied up a little different than without him.

The players aren't stupid. They know if they demand the moon that it means one of their valuable teammates might need to be moved. I like to think they're all on board for helping to build a sustainable championship core...but I guess we'll see in due time

Well the thing is Bobby Orr has just come out and said Matthews next contract has norhing to do with the money but mathhews staying in toronto where he wants to be. So does that sound like an agent (in this case the owerer of the agency) looking to squeeze the leafs for every dollar or an agency just looking to make sure he's in the ballpark of the players of similar skill level? I get that i might be low balling a bit but i don't think it will be far off that value.

In fairness it's all talk right now. He's painting his client in the best possible light. I didn't read too much into it one way or another. I hold by my comment that arguments can be made at $9.5 and at $12.5 and everything in between.