If we go by playoff scoring rates, Burakovsky's 6 points in 138 minutes over ten games, after coming back from surgery are much better than Vrana's 8 points in 275 minutes over 23 games. Wilson, Oshie, and Ovechkin also clearly outscored Vrana, so there aren't any top six minutes available for Vrana even without signing Nash, which is why I keep thinking they use his waiver exemption, but that's taboo on here. Wilson had 15 points, even if they took him 375 minutes of ice time.
Burakovsky, WIlson, and Connolly all got the same even strength points per minute last season, down to the hundredths place, and I think they're all worth 3M per year.. My comps for WIlson at 3 are Matt Martin who hits more and fights more but scores less in limited action at 2.5, and Leo Komarov who hits more and scores more but fights less at 3.0. In another thread someone suggested that Wilson hits so hard that he can take top players out of a playoff series and give the Caps a huge advantage, and I'm like.... Boone Jenner did that to Burakovsky in game two, after Burakovsky played pretty well for 22 mintues in game one. Jenner was coming off a 16 goal season and into February of his thirty goal season when he signed his two year 2.9M contract (
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/boone-jenner). Wilson scored 14 goals this year and added 2(?) in the playoffs on the top line. Can he keep improving and score 60 points a year for life? Sure. Why not? Or maybe Stephenson, Burakovsky, and Boyd get to 40 points before him. In the playoffs, he was 6th among all right wings in points, which is great, but he was also 4th among Capitals right wings in goals. In 1st place, Devante Smith-Pelly just re-signed at 1 million for 1 year, which keeps the team together and gives them a chance to contend again, soon. I know Wilson is younger than DSP (by one year) and was drafted higher (by one round) and hasn't bounced around in his career as much....
Tom Wilson has 20 points in 62 career playoff games, for a career playoff average of..... .323 ppg. 8 of them are goals which puts him around .129 gpg, career, in tthe playoffs.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/w/wilsoto01.html
Devante Smith-Pelly, who signed a 1M contract, has 16 playoff points in 48 playoff games for .333ppg. 13 of them are goals which gives him .270 playoff goals per game, career.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/smithde06.html DSP had two more playoff goals than Wilson this year, scores playoff goals at twice Wilson's rate, and scores playoff points at a slightly higher rate, throughout his career. In two periods on the top line, he didn't produce, but it's entirely possible that both are middle six forwards next year, if Burakovsky finally has his breakout season and claims a top line spot. Do you want to see the Caps pay a middle six winger 4.5M because he hits pretty hard?
My guess is that, with Burakovsky talking about spending this summer working on how to be more consistent, we see BuraKuzy reunited by November, and Burakovsky scores 25 to 30 goals this year. Does that happen on a line with Ovechkin, does Ovechkin reunite with Backstrom and Oshie, or do we see Ovechkin carry Eller and Wilson to new offensive heights? There's a new head coach, there are going to be a couple of new assistant coaches. It's anybody's guess. But if Burakovsky plays like we all keep expecting, Wilson gets a huge contract, and Vrana gets unearned top six time, then paying everybody next summer becomes impossible. Adding Nash as a proven twenty goal scorer and capable 2nd power play contributor (he can play any spot but right point) gives Bura and Vrana an obstance to overcome, to make them really earn all that ice time. If they don't outplay an aging star who only had 24 goals last year, then the team gets to keep both of them. Either way, Nash gets a shot at the title, and at playing with some great centers, who might just help revive his career. But much like the approach I thought they would take last year with Kempny, I would go into it as a one year thing, and not expect to make any space for Nash next summer. So he's free to acquire, he lowers the team's salary cap numbers long term, and he might chip in thirty goals.
I'm not signing Rick Nash to be like, "oooh yay! Rick Nash! Former top overall pick and alleged superstar coming off an 8M deal with the Rangers." I think he's a little less good than Chris Kreider at basically the same game at evens, but he's what's available for free, and Kreider would cost a first and then the team would lose Burakovsky and Connolly next summer to salary cap math. Since their regular season production was each tied with Wilson's, I hope you can see the logic in trying to keep them both around.
Stephenson isn't playing because I didn't want to read the comments I'd get for sending Vrana to Hershey to play 25 minutes a night and score 70 points. Don't worry. IRL, if they sign Nash for a tiny offensive bump and a lot of salary cap stability, Stephenson plays.