Holtby for Dubnyk (WSH/SJS/MTL trades)

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Edited Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:20 p.m.

Quoting: ClockReads2113

Uh what? Why is Washington giving up the better pick? Holtby is over 3 years younger, better, and coming off a great Cup winning performance. So it would be Holtby for Dubnyk++.

Quoting: staytru20

Probably a good spot for a conditional pick, but there needs to be more coming back for Washington for sure.

This is why:
"Dubnyk, 32, has three years left on a deal that pays him $4.333 million annually. Since Jan. 15, 2015, Dubnyk leads the NHL with 231 games played and 20 shutouts, is tied for first with a .923 save percentage, is second with 134 wins and second with a 2.26 goals-against average." - Michael Russo, The Athletic

Also, Dubnyk would save Washington almost $2M in cap space. I think Holtby being better is very arguable.

Edit: I changed it to a 1 for 1 swap. I still think Dubnyk is better and the stats show that in my comment from our beat writer, but Holtby being younger has value.

Edit 2: For context, here is Holtby's summed stats from the past 3 seasons: 183 games played, 124 games won, 12 shut outs, .918 save percentage, and 2.39 GAA according to hockeyreference. Dubnyk has better stats than this, hence my opinion that Dubnyk is better. But again, Holtby is 3 years younger, which holds value.

Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:20 p.m.

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Quoting: arousedcat

This is why:
"Dubnyk, 32, has three years left on a deal that pays him $4.333 million annually. Since Jan. 15, 2015, Dubnyk leads the NHL with 231 games played and 20 shutouts, is tied for first with a .923 save percentage, is second with 134 wins and second with a 2.26 goals-against average." - Michael Russo, The Athletic

Also, Dubnyk would save Washington almost $2M in cap space. I think Holtby being better is very arguable.

Edit: I changed it to a 1 for 1 swap. I still think Dubnyk is better and the stats show that in my comment from our beat writer, but Holtby being younger has value.

Edit 2: For context, here is Holtby's summed stats from the past 3 seasons: 183 games played, 124 games won, 12 shut outs, .918 save percentage, and 2.39 GAA according to hockeyreference.

"Holtby being younger has value"

Not necessarily, Dubnyk has been healthier.

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:21 p.m.

#6

bags92

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Never in a million years would the Caps do that trade. They'll be able to get wayyyyyyyyy more than Dubnyk for Holtby.

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:22 p.m.

#7

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Quoting: Davisoc

"Holtby being younger has value"

Not necessarily, Dubnyk has been healthier.

Which adds to my belief that Dubnyk is more valuable. I still think my original trade of Dubnyk and MN 2019 2nd for Holtby and WSH 2019 1st is much more fair.

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:27 p.m.

#8

staytru20

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Quoting: Davisoc

"Holtby being younger has value"

Not necessarily, Dubnyk has been healthier.

What? Holtby has been one of the more consistently healthy and reliable goalies since he came up to the NHL. He missed one playoff game in 2015 because he had the stomach flu, and he missed a game or two this past season because of a very minor knee injury.

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:29 p.m.

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Quoting: arousedcat

This is why:
"Dubnyk, 32, has three years left on a deal that pays him $4.333 million annually. Since Jan. 15, 2015, Dubnyk leads the NHL with 231 games played and 20 shutouts, is tied for first with a .923 save percentage, is second with 134 wins and second with a 2.26 goals-against average." - Michael Russo, The Athletic

Also, Dubnyk would save Washington almost $2M in cap space. I think Holtby being better is very arguable.

Edit: I changed it to a 1 for 1 swap. I still think Dubnyk is better and the stats show that in my comment from our beat writer, but Holtby being younger has value.

Edit 2: For context, here is Holtby's summed stats from the past 3 seasons: 183 games played, 124 games won, 12 shut outs, .918 save percentage, and 2.39 GAA according to hockeyreference. Dubnyk has better stats than this, hence my opinion that Dubnyk is better. But again, Holtby is 3 years younger, which holds value.

Over the last 3 seasons at 5v5:
Dubynk .931sv% -13.63GSAA
Holtby .928sv% +21.21

So Dubynk barely wins out in sv% but gets pummeled in GSAA. If you take away Holtby's bad last season due to exhaustion he looks even better: he has a .933sv% and Dubnyk remains at .931sv%. So I'd still say Holtby is better and as you said is valuable as younger. I'd gladly trade Holtby to you next summer when we need to get something in return for him before he leaves.

Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:30 p.m.

#10

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Quoting: Davisoc

"Holtby being younger has value"

Not necessarily, Dubnyk has been healthier.

Holtby has never once missed a game due to injury. Ever. He got sick once a couple years back and missed 1 playoff game.

Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:31 p.m.

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Quoting: staytru20

What? Holtby has been one of the more consistently healthy and reliable goalies since he came up to the NHL. He missed one playoff game in 2015 because he had the stomach flu, and he missed a game or two this past season because of a very minor knee injury.

I don't even recall a knee injury. The only reason he missed time this season was due to exhaustion, which is why he had a bad year.

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:31 p.m.

#12

Hedman77

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I can’t believe we’re arguing whether Dubnyk is worth Holtby

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:32 p.m.

#13

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Quoting: ClockReads2113

Over the last 3 seasons at 5v5:
Dubynk .931sv% -13.63GSAA
Holtby .928sv% +21.21

So Dubynk barely wins out in sv% but gets pummeled in GSAA. If you take away Holtby's bad last season due to exhaustion he looks even better: he has a .933sv% and Dubnyk remains at .931sv%. So I'd still say Holtby is better and as you said is valuable as younger. I'd gladly trade Holtby to you next summer when we need to get something in return for him before he leaves.

But hockey isn't always played 5v5... so that's a cherry picked stat. And you taking out his "bad last season" is cherry picking his stats even more.

Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:33 p.m.

#14

capsin9

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Quoting: Davisoc

"Holtby being younger has value"

Not necessarily, Dubnyk has been healthier.

holtby is a top 3 goalie won a vez and has been in the top 4 in voting 4/5 years. also 2 years ago set the record for most wins in a season......you would need to overpay to get him off the caps.

wild get

holtby

Washington gets

dub 1st and a top 3 prospect

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:35 p.m.

#15

bishopsdad

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Quoting: Herms17

MTL says yes!!!

Montreal says HELL YES. Then signs. Then immediately sends it to the NHL before anyone tries to renege

Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:37 p.m.

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Quoting: arousedcat

But hockey isn't always played 5v5... so that's a cherry picked stat. And you taking out his "bad last season" is cherry picking his stats even more.

Cherry picked stat? 5v5 is like 90% of the game haha I'll give you that taking out last season was cherry picking but it was because he played so damn much the 3 years prior he just ran out of gas. It's why when he took a break and rested before coming into the playoffs he was great. I doubt they let him do that again so I wouldn't expect a repeat of last season.

Also according to Corsica, over the last 3 seasons in ALL situations:
Dubynk .919sv% -24.69
Holtby .918sv% +25.95

So barely wins out in sv% and gets smashed in GSAA. So yeah, no Dubnyk isn't even close to being better.

Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:46 p.m.

#17

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Quoting: ClockReads2113

Cherry picked stat? 5v5 is like 90% of the game haha I'll give you that taking out last season was cherry picking but it was because he played so damn much the 3 years prior he just ran out of gas. It's why when he took a break and rested before coming into the playoffs he was great. I doubt they let him do that again so I wouldn't expect a repeat of last season.

5v5 is most of the game, but it's still cherry picking to only use 5v5 since it isn't the entire game. If that's the case, Dubnyk played even more games than Holtby and still put up better numbers. Dubnyk in the past 3 seasons played 67, 65, and 60 games while Holby played 66, 63, and 54. It's marginal (probably not statistically significant, I'm not going to do the math right now to figure it out), but if he needs breaks like that then that makes Holtby less valuable. Dubnyk never had any issues with running out of gas. In fact, our coach has told media (I don't have a specific source on this, but I've heard him say it on the radio a few times) that Dubnyk wants to play even more than he already does. The guy is a machine.

Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:48 p.m.

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Note to self: NEVER saying anything against Holtby to Caps fans, good God.

So, what I mean, and its my fault for not being more clear. Dubnyk has played more games, has preformed better. But watch you guys lose your mind over that comment also.

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:50 p.m.

#19

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Quoting: Davisoc

Note to self: NEVER saying anything against Holtby to Caps fans, good God.

So, what I mean, and its my fault for not being more clear. Dubnyk has played more games, has preformed better. But watch you guys lose your mind over that comment also.

Yep, lesson learned I'm NEVER trading for Holby again. This is ridiculous, lol.

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:56 p.m.

#20

capsin9

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Quoting: Davisoc

Note to self: NEVER saying anything against Holtby to Caps fans, good God.

So, what I mean, and its my fault for not being more clear. Dubnyk has played more games, has preformed better. But watch you guys lose your mind over that comment also.

we obviously love hotlby but he's clearly a top 3 goalie in the nhl and you'd have to offer more than a older equivalent to slightly less equivalent to hotlby to get him off Washington......no one Imo is saying he's not good but he's just not holtby the guy is arguably the best player on our team

Jul. 26, 2018 at 2:56 p.m.

#21

Fox_Czar_Cup

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People and their useless stats are hilarious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go back a few years and flip goalies...is like putting these FANCY NUMBERS IN A BLENDER! Good old fashion eye test, Conn Smyth worthy performance and common sense says Holtby.

Jul. 26, 2018 at 3:04 p.m.

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Quoting: Davisoc

Note to self: NEVER saying anything against Holtby to Caps fans, good God.

So, what I mean, and its my fault for not being more clear. Dubnyk has played more games, has preformed better. But watch you guys lose your mind over that comment also.

Quoting: arousedcat

5v5 is most of the game, but it's still cherry picking to only use 5v5 since it isn't the entire game. If that's the case, Dubnyk played even more games than Holtby and still put up better numbers. Dubnyk in the past 3 seasons played 67, 65, and 60 games while Holby played 66, 63, and 54. It's marginal (probably not statistically significant, I'm not going to do the math right now to figure it out), but if he needs breaks like that then that makes Holtby less valuable. Dubnyk never had any issues with running out of gas. In fact, our coach has told media (I don't have a specific source on this, but I've heard him say it on the radio a few times) that Dubnyk wants to play even more than he already does. The guy is a machine.

Over the last 3 seasons Dubnyk has played 9 more games (actually 32 LESS games if you include the playoffs) and has a better sv% by a grand total of 0.001%. If you really think those 9 games and 0.001% means Dubnyk "performed better", then I have some bad news for you. Dubynk, in that time frame, had GSAA ratingof -24.69 (that's terrible). Holtby on the other hand had a +25.95GSAA. So that's a 50+ goal difference!

And if games played is something you care about that much, then since 2013-2014 when Holtby became a starter including playoffs then he's played 365 games, Dubynk has played 310. That's 55 games. That's a LOT. That's why Holtby ran out of gas and Dubnyk can keep playing.

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Jul. 26, 2018 at 3:06 p.m.

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Quoting: capsin9

we obviously love hotlby but he's clearly a top 3 goalie in the nhl and you'd have to offer more than a older equivalent to slightly less equivalent to hotlby to get him off Washington......no one Imo is saying he's not good but he's just not holtby the guy is arguably the best player on our team

I'm fine with adding more value. My mistake was speaking in favor of Dubnyk.

Jul. 26, 2018 at 3:07 p.m.

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Quoting: ClockReads2113

Over the last 3 seasons Dubnyk has played 9 more games (actually 32 LESS games if you include the playoffs) and has a better sv% by a grand total of 0.001%. If you really think those 9 games and 0.001% means Dubnyk "performed better", then I have some bad news for you. Dubynk, in that time frame, had GSAA ratingof -24.69 (that's terrible). Holtby on the other hand had a +25.95GSAA. So that's a 50+ goal difference!

And if games played is something you care about that much, then since 2013-2014 when Holtby became a starter including playoffs then he's played 365 games, Dubynk has played 310. That's 55 games. That's a LOT. That's why Holtby ran out of gas and Dubnyk can keep playing.

Is now the time that I say it's time to trade Ovi while he still had some value?

Jul. 26, 2018 at 3:09 p.m.

#25