Quoting: LoganOllivier
The only way I'll eat my words, and I'm big enough of a person to admit when I am wrong, is if he scores 20 goals or 50 points next year. He won't because I don't think Ovie will be nearly as dominant as he was last year. He's getting up there and each year his 5v5 play will diminish but he'll score a tonne on the PP for several years yet. So each year Wilson will have to do more than he's done with less help. Its a recipe for disaster and it won't end well. If I am wrong though and Wilson scores 50 points this season, I'll happily admit that I am wrong.
Ovi hit 90 points last season, sure he won't be as good but he'll still be elite, as will Kuzey.
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One thing though I think you should move away from is the whole 5v5 point total thing. Its an outlier season, his average will remain around 20 5v5 points a year and he's not good enough to play on the PP and doesn't get points while killing penalties so he isn't an elite penalty killer. He also gives up the most PK opportunities on the team and league if I read that right in your famed article so that is a negative as well.
I will be insanely surprised if Wilson doesn't hit at least 30 5v5 points this season and even then I'd be disappointed with that, he needs to stay above 35 5v5 points. I'd bet all I have he gets way more than 20 5v5 points. Hell he hit that with bottom 6 time before. Can't prove anything about PP b/c he hasn't been given the chance, but with the small sample size of 27 minutes on the PP he's 2nd on the Caps since he entered the league in PP points/60 with 6.5. As for PK, he's amazing at it. Among starting forwards (100 minutes) last season he was 12th in the whole league at xG+/-.
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Here is the point I've always tried to make and this goes far beyond Wilson. The guys who make him appear to be a top 6 winger are Ovie and Kuznetsov, not Wilson. Its the same everywhere. Matt Moulsen got paid big by the Islanders because he scored 40+ off sick passes from Tavares, was Moulsen worth what he got paid? Sure, as long as he was playing with Tavares, the moment he wasn't he struggled to score in the double digits. Wilson has never scored much on his own and needs the right people to make him as effective as he was in the playoffs and also I will say the reffing in the playoffs is garbage. Its both ways, refs let everything go and its not a good thing. Speed and skill make way for size and strength because the refs let clutching and grabbing go in the playoffs. That's why Boston won when they did, Vancouver was a way better team but by the time they got to the finals, the big bad bruins were allowed to do what ever they wanted (The Canucks also did that) and just out muscled the smaller more skilled Canucks.
Context is always relevant. Moulson is in the same boat as Clarkson when people bring him up. Moulson was 31 when he signed his deal and his contract would be worth $6.6M today. Wilson is 7 years younger and $1.5M cheaper. It's understandable why Moulson started to suck: was already declining. Wilson is just getting going.
And like I said, I agree Wilson probably can't produce by himself outside of Kuzey or Backstrom as his center, but Kuzey will be here for another 6 years and probably Backstrom and Ovi too. Don't think there will ever be any amount of shortage on skill for Wilson to work with. Plus the cap always going up it will either be a great deal or decent deal as it grows.
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Don't take that as I think the Capitals are undeserving of their win, they played fantastic and Ovie's performance throughout the playoffs was inspiring. I just think what Wilson did in the playoffs isn't what he will do in the regular season because he'd get penalties or longer suspensions for a lot of the questionable plays he does on a regular basis. What should worry you more than anything is the classic, now that he is getting paid a lot he may feel the need to prove himself, and for a player with his style and skill set, I can see him getting a big suspension for a huge and dirty hit happening very quickly. If that happens or if he starts squeezing the stick at all, all of this will turn really fast.
Yeah that could certainly happen. I guess we'll have to see how he handles the new contract.
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