(*Under Construction*) - ANY QUESTIONS? SPEAK NOW!
May I present to you, my magnum opus:
The Leafs cap chart for all major players up in 2019. (*Under construction*)
(Get some popcorn, this will be a long one)
The theory I will work with to determine cap hits is based on a 3 step process. Firstly, to determine the cap hit should there not be cap inflation (contracts maxing out a 3 years old to stay on track). Next is to determine the affect of adding or subtracting years on a (long term) contract, and its effect on the cap hit, and finally, accounting for cap inflation. I will also make a note for expectations, which may or may not influence cap decisions, but that will be handled after cap inflation does its thing.
Note: NCI = No cap inflation included
Stats from Hockey Reference
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Lets begin with William Nylander:
Without Cap inflation, he is virtually identical to Ehlers in the two full seasons they have played. Putting Drai and Pasta here, not because they are comparable, but because some people think they are.
These stats show that they are very similar, and that Ehlers had a better season in his contract year than Nylander did, but Nylander shows more all around upside, and is a playmaker, rather than a shooter. Their contracts would be similar assuming no cap inflation.
Ehlers Contract: 7@6
Nylander expected contract NCI: 7@6
Draisaitl Contract: 8@8.5
Pasternak Contract: 6@6.66
Forsberg contract: 6@6
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On to Marner: Marner's stats compared to Nylander, Pasternak, and Gaudreau as of today (am including Pasternak's following season as he did not play very much two seasons before his contract):
As you can see Marner is not too much better than Nylander, and Gaudreau slightly beats Marner out in many metrics, especially his contract year. That being said, Marner is a very good comparable to Gaudreau, just a touch worse.
Nylander expected contract NCI: 7@6
Gaudreau contract: 6@6.75
Pasternak Contract: 6@6.66
Marner expected contract NCI: 6-7@6.66
Forsberg contract: 6@6
Draisaitl contract: 8@8.5
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Now Matthews:
Matthews is in another league from Marner and Nylander, his comparables are McDavid, Eichel, and I will use Seguin and Tavares as recent UFA contracts to compare too as well.
McDavid is quite a bit better than Matthews, although it seems Matthews is the better goal scorer. It seems like Matthews is more a goal scoring version of Eichel, than McDavid. I am leaning toward using Eichel as the major comparison. Tavares is a surprisingly good comparison to Matthews.
Matthews expected contract NCI: 8@10
McDavid contract: 8@12.5
Eichel contract: 8@10
Tavares contract 8@11
Seguin contract: 8@9.85
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Extra stuff saved for when I need it later:
Marner points (16-17 - 17-18): 19G/61P - 22G/69P
Nylander points (16-17 - 17-18): 22G/61P - 20G/61P
Gaudreau points: 24G/64P - 30G/78P (14-15 - 15-16 before his contract)
Pasternak points: 15G/26P - 34G/70P - 35G/80P (15-16 (<-- 51 games) - 16-17 - 17-18 mostly before his contract)
Nylander contract: 6@6.9 (6@7.268 with inflation @83 cap)
Gaudreau contract: 6@6.75 (6@7.677 with inflation @83 cap)
Pasternak Contract: 6@6.66 (6@7.378 with inflation @83 cap)
Marner: ?
Now tell me with a straight face Marner gets nearly 10 million aav.
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Question (on OCT 22):
What will this website do when Nylander finally does sign? Half of the armchair-gm is dedicated to him right now.
My Answer:
Well, if he signs a long term deal, then the site will trade him for Tanev 1-for-1 as his contract will be relatively team friendly.
If he signs short term, that means a trade is incoming and he will get traded 1-for-1 for Tanev (according to this site).
And then there will be like me and 3 other guys like (*look we can sign everyone easily*).
Glad to see that My prediction is 90% accurate (100% - the Tanev joke).
Just going to add this from PPP.
Nylander now has the 40th largest contract among forwards. It’s always difficult to compare raw salary totals because as the cap changes, salaries change, but Nylander now has the 40th largest contract among forwards. Assuming the cap keeps rising, that number will shrink every year going forward. That means Nylander will be most "expensive" during this season. Can anyone seriously make an argument that there are 40 more valuable forwards than him right now let alone as a longterm piece?
In every year of his development, he has performed at an elite level. He dominated international play, the SHL and the AHL. He scored at the level of the Sedin twins in international play, the Swedish junior league and the SHL. He is currently an elite NHL forward. Last year, he had the 31st best ES P/60 among 360 forwards and the 23rd best GF%. In other words, in the top 10% of forwards. His powerplay performance was surprisingly bad last year (147th, 4.4 P/60) but the year before it was best in the league at 8.5, just better than Backstrom. He’s 22. He’s 22 and he has the 40th most expensive forward contract. Fans and media who believe this is a bad contract are very much missing the forest for the trees. Signing a 22-year-old elite forward to an extremely reasonable contract which will last for ~90% of his prime is a bargain. This is the Andersen trade all over again. Goalies are bizarrely cheap and so what seemed like an expensive deal compared to other bizarre goalie trades, the Andersen trade looked lousy. But goalies are dirt cheap and he’s elite and therefore the trade was actually very lopsided. The salaries of young players have been artificially suppressed, which blows and **** the league for doing it, but it means that elite, long-term, 6.969!!!!-contract-signing-babes come at preposterous bargains.
Eat **** Brian Burke! Praise be Kyle Dubas! Praise be William Nylander!!
It's not about what other players got. It's what you can get.
Or as Matthews said. "That's why we have agents"
You are kidding yourself if you think Matthews cap is looking at any other contract other than McDavids.
You can link Marners right to Dri, and because Nylander is right there with him that's why he's looking for 8.
Matthews may end up being the highest paid player in the league next year, and no one would really be surprised.
It's not about what other players got. It's what you can get.
Or as Matthews said. "That's why we have agents"
You are kidding yourself if you think Matthews cap is looking at any other contract other than McDavids.
You can link Marners right to Dri, and because Nylander is right there with him that's why he's looking for 8.
Matthews may end up being the highest paid player in the league next year, and no one would really be surprised.
yes, none of this matter because players don't get compared to other players and their contracts /s
I am literally showing you exactly why Matthews is not comparable to McDavid. The info is right in front of you and you refuse to see it. He is by far more comparable to Eichel.
You are just an idiot that cannot come to grips with the fact that you are not infallible.
yes, none of this matter because players don't get compared to other players and their contracts /s
I am literally showing you exactly why Matthews is not comparable to McDavid. The info is right in front of you and you refuse to see it. He is by far more comparable to Eichel.
You are just an idiot that cannot come to grips with the fact that you are not infallible.
And Matthews will say go talk to my agent as he looks for his 13 million.
He's the second best player in the league under the age of 22. Period. You are gonna have to pay him. Salary cap has gone up 2 years, or is it 3 since the McDavid deal. He's gonna get paid. Especially if he has a monster year this year.
And Matthews will say go talk to my agent as he looks for his 13 million.
He's the second best player in the league under the age of 22. Period. You are gonna have to pay him. Salary cap has gone up 2 years, or is it 3 since the McDavid deal. He's gonna get paid. Especially if he has a monster year this year.
Yes, he will look for 13, and the team will look for 9.85 (Seguin), they will meet at.... *gasp* 8@11 (with inflation).
Yes, he will look for 13, and the team will look for 9.85 (Seguin), they will meet at.... *gasp* 8@11 (with inflation).
Here is my issue with Matthews.... have you seen him this year???? He has changed.... he is on a tear and it shows in his attitude and play. Matthews will get somewhere between 10.5-13m unfortunaley I cant narrow it down any further. If he continues to play how he has, and no I don’t expect him to sore 137goals and 219 points (the pace he is setting in 3 games) but I can see him at 60 goals and 100 points. If he wins some mantel tackle this season... let’s say rocket and hart... he is getting McJesus plus inflation...
Same goes for marner to a lesser scale. Marner could put up a powerhouse season. I can see him anywhere from 7-9.5m. I think marner is the type of guy to take a discount... and when he does you put a C on his sweater. I know it’s been talk of Tavares and Matthews for the C but I wouldn’t leave Mitch out of it.
The one I can be sure of is nylander... 6-7m or he is out the door. If it’s 8 yrs maybe 7.25m absolute tops. I’ve always been big on kappy and I truly think he could steal nylanders spot. He is faster grittier and close in the skill department. Much closer than people give him credit for.
I was hopeful to see Matthews sign in season but if we are not offering 12m I think he waits till his season is done.
Can’t really project contracts on guys with another season to play.
And Matthews will say go talk to my agent as he looks for his 13 million.
He's the second best player in the league under the age of 22. Period. You are gonna have to pay him. Salary cap has gone up 2 years, or is it 3 since the McDavid deal. He's gonna get paid. Especially if he has a monster year this year.
Mcdavid contract starts this year and was signed in July 2017 on a projected cap of 78m. I think it’s funny that people always try to go back on when a contract is signed. Like GM’s and agents aren’t looking at projected caps for when the contract starts. Mcdavid’s contract was meant to be 16% cap hit when it was signed. Mathews to sign the mcdavid deal with inflation today would be 13m.
Here is my issue with Matthews.... have you seen him this year???? He has changed.... he is on a tear and it shows in his attitude and play. Matthews will get somewhere between 10.5-13m unfortunaley I cant narrow it down any further. If he continues to play how he has, and no I don’t expect him to sore 137goals and 219 points (the pace he is setting in 3 games) but I can see him at 60 goals and 100 points. If he wins some mantel tackle this season... let’s say rocket and hart... he is getting McJesus plus inflation...
Same goes for marner to a lesser scale. Marner could put up a powerhouse season. I can see him anywhere from 7-9.5m. I think marner is the type of guy to take a discount... and when he does you put a C on his sweater. I know it’s been talk of Tavares and Matthews for the C but I wouldn’t leave Mitch out of it.
The one I can be sure of is nylander... 6-7m or he is out the door. If it’s 8 yrs maybe 7.25m absolute tops. I’ve always been big on kappy and I truly think he could steal nylanders spot. He is faster grittier and close in the skill department. Much closer than people give him credit for.
I was hopeful to see Matthews sign in season but if we are not offering 12m I think he waits till his season is done.
Can’t really project contracts on guys with another season to play.
I will expand this to all players (major) that need a contract this year.
It is difficult to do this a year ahead, but assuming they follow others path (the comparables) I think we will be fine. Just look at JT's contract year. I could see Matthews doing that. Once you factor in the fact JT is a UFA with a huge bidding war, and that he left money on the table, plus AM's promise to be here for the long run, I think he can be argued down to 11.
Just remember I have not factored in years or cap inflation yet. This is very much under construction (been working on it on and off all weekend, expect it done sometime next week).
Mcdavid contract starts this year and was signed in July 2017 on a projected cap of 78m. I think it’s funny that people always try to go back on when a contract is signed. Like GM’s and agents aren’t looking at projected caps for when the contract starts. Mcdavid’s contract was meant to be 16% cap hit when it was signed. Mathews to sign the mcdavid deal with inflation today would be 13m.
exactly, He's gonna get McDavid money, he's gonna probably pull in 13 million.
Its not about numbers it's about the player. There is no brighter star in the league right now. You got McDavid, you got Matthews. Period. he's a generational talent, he's gonna get paid like it.
He's the second best young player in the league behind McDavid, and he'll end up paid top dollar. He knows it too.
My projections... unless someone years it up this season...
Matthews 11m
Marner 7.5m
Nylander 6.5m
Matthews gets the Tavares money marner gets Johnny hockey plus inflation and nylander gets 6.5m because he is stubborn. If kappy continues to impress we send nylander to the desert so they can’t afford to send a sheet in on Matthews lol.
Appreciate the time you took to make this, nice job
My only comment with the Gaudreau comparison is he only signed for 6.75 because he had no leverage as he was not offersheet eligible. If he had been he probably got 7+
exactly, He's gonna get McDavid money, he's gonna probably pull in 13 million.
Its not about numbers it's about the player. There is no brighter star in the league right now. You got McDavid, you got Matthews. Period. he's a generational talent, he's gonna get paid like it.
He's the second best young player in the league behind McDavid, and he'll end up paid top dollar. He knows it too.
Mcdavid won the hart, the art ross and the ted Lindsay the season before he signed his contract. If Matthews wants McJesus money he needs a combo of three trophies being 3 of either the art ross the rocket Richard the hart or ted Lindsay. If he does this the only unhappy leafs fans will be the stubborn ones.
Matthews has the possibility of 10.5-13m all depends on his play and contracts by comparables. The only comparables I could see him with are mcdavid on the high end laine on the low end. I don’t Use ufa signings as comparables. This makes it difficult being such a high end rfa. Edmonton had no real comparables for mcdavid without traveling back in time had to carve new ground.
Appreciate the time you took to make this, nice job
My only comment with the Gaudreau comparison is he only signed for 6.75 because he had no leverage as he was not offersheet eligible. If he had been he probably got 7+
Same situation with Marner, Nylander, and Matthews
Same situation with Marner, Nylander, and Matthews
No it isn’t, itwasin is correct here. Jonny’s first season he played one nhl game. He played ncaa and wc. This means he only had 2 seasons of pro hockey and was not eligible for a sheet.
Quoting: ItWasIn
Appreciate the time you took to make this, nice job
My only comment with the Gaudreau comparison is he only signed for 6.75 because he had no leverage as he was not offersheet eligible. If he had been he probably got 7+
No it isn’t, itwasin is correct here. Jonny’s first season he played one nhl game. He played ncaa and wc. This means he only had 2 seasons of pro hockey and was not eligible for a sheet.
I just realized he said offer sheet and not arbitration... oops
Your numbers are reasonable if M & M were signed before the season but not likely after this season. The Leafs and both those players are greatly improved offensively and I believe both will end up in the top 20 in scoring with Matthews winning the Rocket Richard and Marner getting 80-90 points which means mucho dinero based upon thier play and a higher cap. We need to project another season to be realistic about what they will be worth.
Your numbers are reasonable if M & M were signed before the season but not likely after this season. The Leafs and both those players are greatly improved offensively and I believe both will end up in the top 20 in scoring with Matthews winning the Rocket Richard and Marner getting 80-90 points which means mucho dinero based upon thier play and a higher cap. We need to project another season to be realistic about what they will be worth.
While I love that pie in the sky enthusiasm, we need to be realistic here. Matthews, while he will have a shot, won't likely win the Rocket, and Marner, as good as he is, will likely only be an 80 point player (only... lol).
Matthews will get paid 11 (10+ inflation) and Marner will get what 80 point RFA's make (7.5).
While I love that pie in the sky enthusiasm, we need to be realistic here. Matthews, while he will have a shot, won't likely win the Rocket, and Marner, as good as he is, will likely only be an 80 point player (only... lol).
Matthews will get paid 11 (10+ inflation) and Marner will get what 80 point RFA's make (7.5).
You call it enthusiasm, I call it very possible. Matthews projected to 45 goals last season if he wasn’t injured and has the second best 5v5 scoring rate since coming into the league. Given a healthy season and the fact he is now on the best PP unit in the league, he will certainly be in the conversation for the Rocket and 50+ goals. Given his play over the first 4 games, he is skating and shooting better and much stronger on the puck. I am not alone in seeing this. Who do you think will likely score more goals them him?
You call it enthusiasm, I call it very possible. Matthews projected to 45 goals last season if he wasn’t injured and has the second best 5v5 scoring rate since coming into the league. Given a healthy season and the fact he is now on the best PP unit in the league, he will certainly be in the conversation for the Rocket and 50+ goals. Given his play over the first 4 games, he is skating and shooting better and much stronger on the puck. I am not alone in seeing this. Who do you think will likely score more goals them him?
Can we just talk in the one thread, it is very annoying to go back and forth. keeps the convo in once piece., also, I addressed everything you just typed there anyways.
You call it enthusiasm, I call it very possible. Matthews projected to 45 goals last season if he wasn’t injured and has the second best 5v5 scoring rate since coming into the league. Given a healthy season and the fact he is now on the best PP unit in the league, he will certainly be in the conversation for the Rocket and 50+ goals. Given his play over the first 4 games, he is skating and shooting better and much stronger on the puck. I am not alone in seeing this. Who do you think will likely score more goals them him?
And one last thing here just to answer your question: Laine, Ovi, etc. Matthews will likely be up there no doubt but still. Again, I reference all this in the other thread, please respond there from now on.
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