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Just because a defenseman shoots right does not make them a top pair defenceman

Team: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 8, 2018
Published: Nov. 8, 2018
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Fans need to stop building up all these 2nd pair defenceman they are sending to TO for Nylander. Its just silly.
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  1. Manson, Josh
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Could use Brown instead of Johnsson but TO offers up cheap offensive forward who can add some scoring depth for Anahiem and relieve some cap issues since they have some bad contracts. Manson not being one, but he's no allstar, he's a 2nd pair guy who would be a big upgrade over Hainsey.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:44 a.m.
#51
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Quoting: A_K
To answer that question you would have to look at some kind of WAR stat, or something that you can compare different player types/positions with. You also have to consider that some of these guys signed contracts before they really evolved into what they currently are. Nylander doesn't fit that mold after to 60+ pt seasons to begin his career. And like you said, offense is valued over everything else when determining a player's contract. It shouldn't sound outrageous that a d-man making less could be worth more than a forward making more.


In some cases sure, but it really seems that everyone on here and everyone in the world thinks Nylander should and will get paid more than pretty much every defenceman he is traded for.

For example lets use Pesce. He's a terrific defender and anyone would be happy to have him on their team. At the same time, no one would pay him more 4-4.5 million, he just doesn't contribute enough offense to warrant a larger contract. So how does it make sense to value him so high in a trade only to say he's not worth 2/3rds the cap hit Nylander is worth?

This isn't Lucic for Pesce where obviously the defenceman is worth way more than Lucic but makes way less, we are talking about a top 10 RW being traded for a stay at home defenceman.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 11:47 a.m.
#52
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Quoting: krakowitz
This is usually because defensive play is a lot tougher to measure and compare than offensive stats. At the end of the day, you need both types of players to win games. Their on-ice value is not determined by how much money they make.


It absolutely better be determining how much they get paid. If you can't earn your paycheck, you are a bad contract.

I agree that you need both types of players and the right balance to win it all. However, I also say you don't overpay for the sake of making a move. Nylander is better than almost all the defenceman he gets traded for on here. I think deep down, most of the people on here know that too but they are fans that are hoping they can win a big trade and throw mud in the face of Leaf fans. Which is fine, just be honest about it. I am not saying you are doing that, you are asking smart questions and helping move the conversation along.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 12:43 p.m.
#53
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
It absolutely better be determining how much they get paid. If you can't earn your paycheck, you are a bad contract.

I agree that you need both types of players and the right balance to win it all. However, I also say you don't overpay for the sake of making a move. Nylander is better than almost all the defenceman he gets traded for on here. I think deep down, most of the people on here know that too but they are fans that are hoping they can win a big trade and throw mud in the face of Leaf fans. Which is fine, just be honest about it. I am not saying you are doing that, you are asking smart questions and helping move the conversation along.


And how are you able to compare the players? What makes you say Nylander is better than someone like Nylander or Pesce? Due to their different roles, saying one is “better” than the other can’t really be proven without some sort of WAR stat or something like that.

Nylander is a terrific player, yes. But if you were to insert one of these defensemen into the lineup right now, the impact they’d have is huge.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 12:45 p.m.
#54
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Quoting: krakowitz
And how are you able to compare the players? What makes you say Nylander is better than someone like Nylander or Pesce? Due to their different roles, saying one is “better” than the other can’t really be proven without some sort of WAR stat or something like that.

Nylander is a terrific player, yes. But if you were to insert one of these defensemen into the lineup right now, the impact they’d have is huge.


I disagree completely, Pesce hasn't helped his team do anything over the past 3 seasons. Nylander help take a last place team to the playoffs, twice.

Explain this to me though and I'll change my mind.

If Pesce is worth more than Nylander, why is making under 4 Million? And honestly would anyone really pay more than 4 million for a guy who doesn't score more than 20 points a season?
Nov. 8, 2018 at 1:20 p.m.
#55
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
I disagree completely, Pesce hasn't helped his team do anything over the past 3 seasons. Nylander help take a last place team to the playoffs, twice.

Explain this to me though and I'll change my mind.

If Pesce is worth more than Nylander, why is making under 4 Million? And honestly would anyone really pay more than 4 million for a guy who doesn't score more than 20 points a season?


Pesce's strengths are on the defensive side of the puck, not offensive. We also have to look at the rest of the team, because there are very few scenarios where one player can vault his team into the playoffs (Mackinnon and Hall last year, Price in 2015, etc). Yes, Nylander contributed to a playoff team, but this was a team that included a lot of high powered offense. Matthews, Marner, JVR and Kadri were all driving that team. In Carolina, they haven't had that sort of offensive talent. Aho and Teravainen are both good weapons, but not to the same level as the Leafs have. The Leafs also have stable goaltending in Andersen, while the Canes haven't had that in years. None of this is Pesce's fault. I would expect that if the two were to switch places, the Leafs would love the defensive support and still make the playoffs, while the Canes wouldn't terribly miss Pesce due to their surplus of D and be in a better overall spot.

It's very tough to say that Pesce is worth more than Nylander, because the market is weird to begin with, and Nylander's contract situation makes it a lot weirder. Last season, featured a Henrique for Vatanen swap. Nylander certainly carries more value than Henrique, and I prefer Pesce to Vatanen. The factor of Nylander being unsigned complicates things a bit as well. However, Pesce is the perfect fit for the Leafs D core. He's a shutdown defenseman in every sense of the word, and he's at a great value for a long time. He's a great partner for Morgan Rielly, given he has a good first pass and holds down the fort in his own end. Nobody can deny the fact that the Leafs need this type of player in their lineup. His salary cap hit is completely irrelevant to his value in the lineup. While I obviously don't know how these negotiations went down, it appears that Pesce took the security over a massive payday, and the Canes got a player that is going to improve and be on a steal of a contract in the long run.

Toronto needs a player like Pesce on their right side. That much is undeniable. The pure value between Nylander and Pesce is debatable, but it's the concept of the deal that makes sense. If the Leafs want Pesce, the Canes demand Nylander. And if the Canes wanted, Nylander, the Leafs ask for Pesce. It's not a scenario of which player is more valuable than another, it's a matter of making the swap that helps both teams in the short and long term.

I can't speak for everyone else, but I've never really tried to argue value in the deal, just that the deal in general makes a ton of sense. Add whatever pieces to either side you need to even it out, but I do know that it's not a tremendous amount of value that needs to be added to make it work.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 1:30 p.m.
#56
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
He was one of several options I could have used. I figured he cause less hate to be thrown my way.

One thing though that never was answered in this entire post is this. If these type of defenseman that everyone wants to trade Nylander for are so valuable, why do they all make less than 4.5 million a year?

People will say Pesce is more valuable than Nylander and then pay Nylander 7 million plus while the other guy gets under 4.5 and that is a fair deal.

Offense is worth more than defence from a salary perspective and yet people are on here saying these guys are worth so much more in a trade. That doesn't make any sense.


You need to understand. Nobody is saying a Manson or a Pesce is as good as or better than Nylander. They are not. There is a difference between ability and value/trade value. There is a difference between financial value and on ice value. There is a difference between how big market clubs and small market clubs manage their roster and finances. For a team like Carolina that trades away RFAs because they can’t pay them a 23 year old, RHD (harder to come by), with a 6 year 24m contract of Pesce’s ability is not replacable. Team needs factor in. Very few teams in the league would consider Justin Faulk an expendale asset. Carolina does and can. The Ducks are short on RH fwds but their top 6 is set and have some good young talent on the way. Who would replace Manson? Nothing in the system for RD to, so that means another trade to fix that hole or overpay for a FA in the offseason for someone who likely isn’t as good.

Trade value and player value are two different things. Driven by different factors.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 1:39 p.m.
#57
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Quoting: Gofnut999
You need to understand. Nobody is saying a Manson or a Pesce is as good as or better than Nylander. They are not. There is a difference between ability and value/trade value. There is a difference between financial value and on ice value. There is a difference between how big market clubs and small market clubs manage their roster and finances. For a team like Carolina that trades away RFAs because they can’t pay them a 23 year old, RHD (harder to come by), with a 6 year 24m contract of Pesce’s ability is not replacable. Team needs factor in. Very few teams in the league would consider Justin Faulk an expendale asset. Carolina does and can. The Ducks are short on RH fwds but their top 6 is set and have some good young talent on the way. Who would replce Manson? Nothing in the system for RD to, so that means another trade to fix that hole or overpay for a FA in the offseason for someone who likely isn’t as good.

Trade value and player value are two different things. Driven by different factors.


You are not wrong, however, I will say that making trades based of team need often is a poor decision. Remember when Edmonton traded away offense because their team need was defence?

Overpaying to help a team need, means you are trading someone better for someone who is worth less but plays a different position. This is why all these teams that have an excess of defenceman, (Most of these teams also struggle to score) are trying to move their strength to teams they see has having a defensive weakness. Which I think Toronto doesn't even have a weakness at defence, its just not as good as their offense which is super elite.
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Nov. 8, 2018 at 2:04 p.m.
#58
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
.

Top pairing Dmen? Just about any RHD that comes to the Leafs in a CapFriendly is made out to a Norris Trophy winner who make the Leafs instant Cup winners. Don't know why these RHD can't do it for their own teams, but somehow they will do as a Leaf.
Competency in playing defence is more important than this silly thought that playing on the strong side makes the Dman so much better.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 2:09 p.m.
#59
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Komarov, Brown, Hyman

Very replaceable. Babcock would love any of 200 similar players in the league.

Top RHD are the rarest, second only to franchise centers like Matthews

Please do us all a favour

Turn off your computer, turn on your bathroom lights and talk to the mirror
Nov. 8, 2018 at 2:22 p.m.
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Quoting: tatatavares
Komarov, Brown, Hyman

Very replaceable. Babcock would love any of 200 similar players in the league.

Top RHD are the rarest, second only to franchise centers like Matthews

Please do us all a favour

Turn off your computer, turn on your bathroom lights and talk to the mirror


Top flight RHD are very rare yes. Show me a fair trade where Toronto sends Nylander and gets one who is in similar age and one that doesn't also cost TO an arm and a leg.

I'll spare you the trouble. There are no trades like that.

The only Nylander trades you see on here are ones TO loses or insane ones that make no sense. Like trading Nylander, Liljegren and a 1st for Doughty. Sure the Leafs get the best defenceman but his contract is a nightmare and he's leaving his prime for almost all of his huge deal.

Or Pesce for Nylander trades are proposed. Nylander is ranked 9th over the past 3 years for all of RW's according to this article that uses the same methodology to rank players. Meaning all things are equal and stats paint this picture not opinion.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/definitive-ranking-nhls-top-20-right-wingers-three-seasons/

Pesce is a defensive defenceman, those are not allstars. Those are not players that are even that valuable. Otherwise they wouldn't always make around 4 million tops.

You have an incredibly high opinion of your own thoughts so answer this question, you are clearly the only smart person on here.

If Nylander is worth 6.5 million a year and Pesce is worth under 4 million a year how are they even close to equal?

Would you pay a guy who is good defensively but only scores 20 some points a season over 6 million?

Does it make sense to trade a 22 year old player who has 61 points in each of his only 2 complete seasons for a 29 year old defenceman who's best hockey could very well be behind him?

Does any of that make sense if you look beyond last season?
Nov. 8, 2018 at 2:29 p.m.
#61
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
Top flight RHD are very rare yes. Show me a fair trade where Toronto sends Nylander and gets one who is in similar age and one that doesn't also cost TO an arm and a leg.

I'll spare you the trouble. There are no trades like that.

The only Nylander trades you see on here are ones TO loses or insane ones that make no sense. Like trading Nylander, Liljegren and a 1st for Doughty. Sure the Leafs get the best defenceman but his contract is a nightmare and he's leaving his prime for almost all of his huge deal.

Or Pesce for Nylander trades are proposed. Nylander is ranked 9th over the past 3 years for all of RW's according to this article that uses the same methodology to rank players. Meaning all things are equal and stats paint this picture not opinion.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/definitive-ranking-nhls-top-20-right-wingers-three-seasons/

Pesce is a defensive defenceman, those are not allstars. Those are not players that are even that valuable. Otherwise they wouldn't always make around 4 million tops.

You have an incredibly high opinion of your own thoughts so answer this question, you are clearly the only smart person on here.

If Nylander is worth 6.5 million a year and Pesce is worth under 4 million a year how are they even close to equal?

Would you pay a guy who is good defensively but only scores 20 some points a season over 6 million?

Does it make sense to trade a 22 year old player who has 61 points in each of his only 2 complete seasons for a 29 year old defenceman who's best hockey could very well be behind him?

Does any of that make sense if you look beyond last season?


You're saying that defensive defenseman aren't worth a lot? There have been approximately zero Stanley Cup champions without some sort of shutdown defenseman. The Leafs don't have that. Washington had Niskanen, Pittsburgh had Dumo, Chicago had Hjalmarsson, Kings had Doughty, you get my point.
Nov. 8, 2018 at 2:48 p.m.
#62
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Quoting: krakowitz
You're saying that defensive defenseman aren't worth a lot? There have been approximately zero Stanley Cup champions without some sort of shutdown defenseman. The Leafs don't have that. Washington had Niskanen, Pittsburgh had Dumo, Chicago had Hjalmarsson, Kings had Doughty, you get my point.


For sure! I completely agree that the Leafs could use someone to help Rielly become a true #1 Stud.

That being said, I don't see any trades where they get one without massively overpaying. All the guys who mentioned make around or less than 5 mill a season, Nylander and guys like him make over 6. They are more valuable. The other thing is guys like the ones you mentioned who are available are all older than Nylander. Trading a 22 year old for a 28 year old is a great way to shorten your window by about 5 years.

So what makes the most sense for TO, trade really good young players to make a marginal upgrade on the defense while helping another team get a lot better? Or trying to find a patchwork fix and wait to either develop or draft their own shutdown guy? Being that the Leafs core are all on the right side of 30 (most of them under 23) they have a very long window of contention, they don't need to jump the gun and overpay to make a move now, they can be patient.
 
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