You could add at most a million and get Marner for 8 years you know, so why 5?

(Hint: Marner asked for 8@9, Dubas said no, which is why talks were postponed until after season)

I figure Matthews wont go below 9, give him another year and be cute with it. > 6@9.34

I love your optimism but I’m going to have to say that your numbers are just that. Optimistic and best case.

Marner asked for 9m after 64 points. He could have over 100 this season. I really don’t think he signs over 9.5m though. Mathews has got to be 11-12m on an 8 yr deal. I don’t think he drops to 9.34 on 6 year term.

Best case scenario to me is 9x8 and 11x8. What could help us out(or possibly hurt us) is some rfa signings. Tkachuk, Laine, Rantanen, Point, Aho. Have to think that even Geuntzal and kucherov extensions start to pace the market for RFA signings.

So if Marner asked for $9m over 8 years when he put up 60ish points and the cap ceiling was $79.5m...what will he be asking for now that he's on pace for 103pts (a pace he's maintained since this time last year) and Bettman has mentioned the cap to likely go up to $83m?

Maybe $8.5m over 5 years will get it done now. Matthews extension likely needs to be around 3 years if you're hoping to get him under $10m

Marner asked for 8 years @ 9 million in the summer when his PPG was at 0.82.

Marner is now at 0.92 PPG and it continues to go up game by game.

The cap was also 79.5 million, the projected cap is 83m.

Your numbers are way off in pretty much every post I see from you.

I'm sorry, but it's painful to read. Especially when you post so much.

Tisk tisk... you’re doing it again.... when marner asked for 9m he was doing so knowing the cap would be 82-84. But you did echo what I said about ppg. Still, good on dubas for turning it down. Think you have to make him prove it. Personally I think kuch is better and if you look at what he will make his first 8 years out of elc... 61.8m or an average of 7.72m per season. Do we need to put marner through the bridge process? Or can we just give him a fair for both sides 9m and he hits ufa 3 years earlier and with an extra 10m.

And again... I agree with the improved stats completely disagree with the extra cap... do you seriously think that GM’s, agents and player don’t realize the cap will go up when they extend contracts?

Of course players and agents know the cap will go up, but they can only project until the actual cap number is released.

When there's a solid number, it's much easier to negotiate.

At this point in the season they know what the cap will be within 500k one way or the other. And I’m just going with the info that the general public has. Consider this for a 9.5m contract the 4.5m in cap space is about 500k. If they can narrow the cap down to a million either way it’s about 100k which I can assure you that marners agent were fully aware of an 82-84m cap.

Agents and gm’s Consider what the cap will look like years in advance.

haha..I was eyes wide open making that comment...everyone assumes the cap will go up year-to-year but there weren't any projections at that time....especially none that would see if go up to potentially $83m.

Either way...my thoughts are more accurately summed up on page two of this thread: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/195503/2

One flawed logic there and I think I pointed this out fairly well in a different discussion. What if kapanen wants to use Malkin as a comparable or ozhiganov wants to use doughty?

Neither marner or mathews have put up anywhere near the production or shelf tackle of the players you are trying to compare them too.

You are right though there is nothing stopping Matthews or Marner from asking for more than they are worth. But that doesn’t mean we have to give it to them.

If Matthews says McJesus and dubas says Eichel well they meet in the middle 11.5 if marner says kucherov and dubas says Gaudreau(sorry for nothing more recent but I think marner and Gaudreau are nearly identical) then would they not meet at less than 9m?

They can ask for whatever they want but at some point dubas has to say gee I wonder what I could do with 8 first round picks and just sign Karlsson and duchene...

Matthews to me is the one that boggles me... you want Mcdavid money and you’ve never cracked 70 points? The same could be said for marner but I think he bottoms out at 85 points this season and that would take one hell of a slump.

No...but it's a dance. One side starts high and the other starts low. If someone's initial ask is batpoop crazy like Kapanen asking for Malkin money...you likely walk away or trade the guy.

There's no point sitting here and discussing what variables factor in to a player's decision because we can't jump inside their head and read off their priority list. But their agents are the one's having the conversations with Dubas & Co. There's less emotion involved and they're going to start their demands in a way that gets their client the highest possible contract. The agent doesn't care about the team's ability to have a cap compliant team.

I'm not saying that means you pay them whatever they're asking for...or even that agents will pull the offer sheet threat.....but I don't subscribe to the theory that Dubas can walk in with a list of comparable players and what % of the cap they signed for off their ELC and the agent takes that to his client for a signature....and anyone that spouts off on here saying 'there's no chance they sign for more or less than xxx" isn't appreciating the nuances of how talks go down.

Dubas is better off presenting a business plan of how the leafs can build a long-term championship roster around Matthews and Marner that will see them challenging for a Stanley Cup throughout every year of their prime if both guys sign on for more reasonable numbers as opposed to trying to maximize their worth. With Toronto you know they will spend to the cap every year if it gives them a better chance to win. If you go into a negotiation and treat your most valuable assets as numbers in a spreadsheet things go sideways.....

that's the stuff that goes down in salary arbitration and a lot of ex players talk about how demoralizing an experience that is to go thru.

I completely agree with what you’re saying. Personally I see them at 9m and 11.5m on 8 year deals max, I see that as fair both ways. I think dubas points to what he’s done this year.

Tavares is on pace for roughly the same amount of points as last season and marner is on pace to almost double his output... how many of those points are coming from Hyman? (Clearly I don’t Want dubas to talk to marner like that but I’m just explaining it to you) I see it as two players that fit together well.

He has done everything to keep the most talented players on the team and upgrade the D to give them a legitimate shot at the cup. Tavares left millions on the table to come here to play with these young stars. We all knew nylander was going to be difficult. I would hate to see the same type of overpayment and long drug out talks go down with them.

I completely understand it’s a bussiness but when did every player turn into kovalev or Michael Nylander. If I’m M&M I’m certainly trying to get the money but I’m telling my agent that this is where I want to play and who I want to play with.

Why do folks obsess with "what players want". I'm sure Johnson and Kapanen want 15m. Money wise, the only leverage the RFA players have is offer sheet, then there is previous on the Leafs or any team.

Scoring is up league wide this year. You can adjust the numbers down to account for that. On top of that they knew what the cap was going to be (roughly), it's not like they weren't factoring that in. Also according to hnic when they were announcing that Marner would be postponed they said he was still asking for 8@9.

My friend, your numbers are the Painfull ones entirely different from reality here.

Considering I see you posting so much it's just sad...

How does Marner get as much as a Ufa kucherov after years of putting up those kind of points....
And taxes are not an answer. They Account for maybe 1 million at most.

I don’t think he does but does Matthews really deserve 12m either? He’s a great player but with injuries he’s not putting up the points and trophies. I don’t see marner being far off from mathews in money and I think the gap gets bridged by less term to Matthews which sucks.

Like I said in my post that you quoted there are a lot of High priced RFA’s coming up and it doesn’t seem like any of them are eager to be the first to sign... if I’m dubas I ‘m hoping for some other RFA’s to start setting bench marks. Certainly marner is at least 1m less than Rantanen.