haha...oh boy...here we go with what appears to be another greatly debated thread. I think I'm late to the party here a bit.
so...Offer sheets...is this the year we finally see a bunch? I honestly don't think so but who knows. My opinions are summarized as follows:
1. All these RFA's coming off their ELC's will be eligible to sign offer sheets as of July 1st when their current contract expires and that window stays open until the player signs. Although any RFA signed after Dec. 1st can't play that season.
2. Their agents can't legally start negotiating offer sheets until the negotiating window prior to July 1st...the reality? These conversations are probably already taking place. Agent 'A' talks to GM 'X' about a player he represents on that team...during that conversation...they discuss another one of Agent 'A's' clients who happens to be a pending RFA and GM 'X' casually mentions that he'd likely be willing to offer $$$ if the occasion arose.
3. Teams cannot get multiple offer sheets signed if the compensation requires the same draft picks in each.
4. Players can only sign 1 offer sheet. So if 15 GM's want to get Marner signed to an offer sheet...only 1 may actually do so
5. The player has to sign the offer sheet for it to have any relevance. If Marner has no interest in playing in New Jersey...he's not going to sign an offer sheet and hope it works as leverage vs the leafs
6. Taxes and offer sheets. I personally believe the states with no state income tax have a competitive advantage specifically when extending their own players. They can show the math to the agent and player and show why accepting $x from them is equivalent to signing $x + $y elsewhere. When it comes to offer sheets, I don't think that advantage applies. Dallas can't offer Kapanen $3m on an offer sheet and convince him it's worth more than $3m in Toronto....I mean...it is....but Toronto matches and there is no tax benefit...so it's not a negotiating tool in luring RFA's to sign an offer sheet, IMO
7. On the topic of taxes....YES....players pay personal income taxes as eloquently laid out by
@ChiHawk . Yes they can incorporate themselves to funnel any payments they get for non NHL work...but their playing salaries are subject to personal income taxes. And I've laid out a number of times how some baseball contracts signed in no-income tax states have clauses in them that require the team to compenstate the player if they trade them to a higher tax state for the difference in salary lost specifically due to the different tax structure. Google the financials associated with the big Marlins-Blue Jays trade from 2012.
8. Offer sheet compensation scale. This isn't a huge issue...but the compensation is a variable scale that's based on the average league salary. It goes up almost every year and it's very likely that the $4,059,322 upper limit in the 2nd round draft pick compensation range will see that number rise....meaning it could end up that teams could offer Kapanen $4.5m on an offer sheet and the compensation remains a 2nd. We'll have to wait for it to be announced.
9. Someone earlier in this thread brought up that the AAV for offer sheets is based on 5 years for any offers that have terms of 5-7 yrs. I believe it was
@mdeason99 's post. This is true and is calculation is accurate...however my understanding is that this formula is simply used to determine the compensation bracket...not the ultimate AAV the signing team will have to fit on their cap.
10. On Kapanen. Again I'm repeating myself from about 4-5 other posts...but I don't see any fathomable way the leafs let Kapanen walk for a 2nd round pick...I'm not saying they match an offer sheet no questions asked...but I don't think the GM's that would be competing to get Kapanen signed to an offer sheet would allow a fellow GM to scoop him up for a 2nd. As soon as the season is done I would expect GM's to come calling Kyle on Kapanen....letting him know that if the Leafs can't reach an agreement with him that they would be prepared to make a trade offer more lucrative than just a 2nd round pick. So IMO, anyone who's getting giddy at the prospect of getting Kapanen to sign a $4m+ offer sheet with them and only lose a 2nd round pick is destined for disappointment
11. On Marner. I know the OP suggested an offer sheet at $10m. I don't have a single shred of doubt that the Leafs would match $10m on any contract length. I think they'd sign $10m on 7-8yrs right now if they could. Marner wants Matthews-level compensation...so teams are going to have to get to at least $12m AAV to likely even get the attention of Marner on an offer sheet.
Conclusion. There won't be any leafs signing offer sheets this summer (but 1 or 2 could get traded)...that's my opinion anyway