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Worst case scenario

Created by: bhawks30
Team: 2016-17 Chicago Blackhawks
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 7, 2016
Published: Jun. 7, 2016
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Bonuses
Panarin $2,575,000 Top 10 NHL points
Teravainen $212,500 Top 6 CHI Forwards TOI
Rozsival $50,000 Games Played

Obviously, I pray Bickell is able to be traded in a deal that would probably require McNeill, or even Teravainen, but the return may still be so small it may be smarter to buy him out and eat the $1 million for each of the next two years.

Let's also cross our fingers that Scuderi retires and his retained salary comes off of the books.

If the escalator is not agreed to and the cap falls to 70 million, as rumored, the Hawks are in big trouble and may need to trade a member of their current core, possibly Arty or Hossa (no Crawford isn't going anywhere).

If the cap stays relatively flat, and only goes up slightly, as Bettman claims is likely, this could be something close to what we will see next year. An International/Youth movement, if you will.

Obviously, I would love to get a larger return for Shaw, but we can't take on any player of salary right now. Draft picks are something we can invest in the future with.

Teravainen is an interesting player, his play in 2016 has people calling for him to be traded, especially as we probably won't be able to re-sign him next off season anyway (due to Panarin). However, with our current salary situation, you won't find a player with his skillset at $894,167. Trading him for a productive player with equivalent potential does no good if that player makes more than what Teuvo does.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,075,000
2$725,000
3$775,000
2$925,000
2$925,000
2$600,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Player, Bonuses
1$2,837,500
Trades
1.
CHI
    2017 4th round pick
    2.
    CHI
      2017 2nd round pick
      2016 4th round pick
      TOR
      1. Svedberg, Viktor
      Additional Details:
      RFA Rights to Andrew Shaw
      Buyouts
      Retained Salary Transactions
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
      23$73,000,000$66,761,587$3,070,000$5,460,000$6,238,413
      Left WingCentreRight Wing
      $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
      LW, RW
      UFA - 1
      $10,500,000$10,500,000
      C
      NMC
      UFA - 7
      $5,275,000$5,275,000
      RW
      NMC
      UFA - 5
      $812,500$812,500 (Performance Bonus$2,575,000$3M)
      LW
      UFA - 1
      $4,550,000$4,550,000
      C, LW
      NMC
      UFA - 5
      $2,625,000$2,625,000
      RW
      NMC
      UFA - 7
      $925,000$925,000
      LW, RW
      UFA - 3
      $692,500$692,500 (Performance Bonus$232,500$232K)
      LW, C, RW
      UFA - 1
      $1,075,000$1,075,000
      LW, RW
      UFA - 1
      $800,000$800,000
      C
      UFA - 1
      $2,775,000$2,775,000
      C
      UFA - 3
      $863,333$863,333
      C, RW
      UFA - 2
      $717,500$717,500 (Performance Bonus$257,500$258K)
      RW, LW
      UFA - 2
      Player, Bonuses
      $2,837,500$2,837,500
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      $5,538,462$5,538,462
      LD
      NMC
      UFA - 7
      $4,100,000$4,100,000
      LD/RD
      M-NTC, NMC
      UFA - 3
      $6,000,000$6,000,000
      G
      M-NTC, NMC
      UFA - 4
      $6,875,000$6,875,000
      RD
      NMC
      UFA - 8
      $825,000$825,000
      RD
      UFA - 2
      $587,500$587,500
      G
      UFA - 1
      $700,000$700,000 (Performance Bonus$437,500$438K)
      LD
      UFA - 1
      $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
      RD
      RFA - 1
      $667,500$667,500 (Performance Bonus$257,500$258K)
      LD
      UFA - 1

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      Jun. 7, 2016 at 12:26 p.m.
      #1
      scarbrow21
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      You're still over the cap by just shy of 500K with only a 22 man roster. Something further has to give.
      Jun. 7, 2016 at 12:29 p.m.
      #2
      Thread Starter
      bhawks30
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      I know this. If there was an easy solution, I would have tried it. I left it because the hope is for a Bickell trade or a Scuderi retirement to put us back under. Otherwise, as I said, something will need to be done.
      Jun. 7, 2016 at 12:31 p.m.
      #3
      Thread Starter
      bhawks30
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      Also, if the cap goes up slightly, lets say to 72.5, opposed to the additional 5% that would cap it around 74.5, we will have a little more wiggle room to fill out the last roster spot
      Jun. 7, 2016 at 2:16 p.m.
      #4
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      Yeah its not going to be easy. It really all depends on the salary cap next year. Until Stan knows that, not much he can do.

      Personally, if worst case scenario happens:
      Cap stays at 71.4M. Then only maybe 73-74M next year.
      Bickell and Rundblad can't be traded. Even if you include a prospect lets say.
      Stan keeps Teravainen and Panarin next year so they will be resigned. Probably at 2M and 5M respectively (give or take)
      Scuderi plays his last season and doesn't retire.
      Hossa and any other NMC doesn't want to be traded.
      Everything that doesn't help Chicago, happens essentially.

      Simplest solution?
      Shaw and Panik not resigned/traded and in turn replaced by cheaper options. Under 1M cap hit prospects in the system.
      Kruger traded for best return possible that doesn't cost them cap space. under 1M cap hit prospects and draft picks.

      Now i know...............Yes their PK and bottom 6 forward depth suffer, yes the Hawks probably don't steam roll the competition like they're used to but......They keep Toews, Kane, Hossa , Anisimov, Panarin, Teravainen, Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Crawford, Van Riemsdyk and prospects obviously, long term. That team coupled with some luck from youngsters picking up the slack left after Kruger, Shaw, Panik, etc are gone, do an admirable job and this team can still win a cup in my mind. They just need their prospects or at least some of them to step up immediately. That's not an implausible scenario. (Motte, Pokka, Hartman, Kempny, Lundberg, etc, etc)

      To me the solution, albeit not an easy one, is soooooo simple. Obviously though, this is if it is an absolute worst case scenario going into next year. If they get a little lucky by trading Bickell/Rundblad this year and then they can get Teuvo and Panarin signed for cheaper than market value deals asap, than they could afford to keep an extra player like Kruger, Shaw or Panik.
      Jun. 7, 2016 at 6:51 p.m.
      #5
      Big D's #1 Hawks fan
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      The Bonuses are counted twice in this scenario. CapFriendly recently updated the 2016/17 bonuses at the very top to include the 2015/16 overages. You have some more cap room to work with. Stan will get a trade done for Bickell. Especially with the rumors that the cap will go down.
      Jun. 7, 2016 at 10:52 p.m.
      #6
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      Quoting: Alankrz
      The Bonuses are counted twice in this scenario. CapFriendly recently updated the 2016/17 bonuses at the very top to include the 2015/16 overages. You have some more cap room to work with. Stan will get a trade done for Bickell. Especially with the rumors that the cap will go down.


      Really? Can anyone else vouch for this? How does this work now?
      Jun. 8, 2016 at 8:55 a.m.
      #7
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      Quoting: Alankrz
      The Bonuses are counted twice in this scenario. CapFriendly recently updated the 2016/17 bonuses at the very top to include the 2015/16 overages. You have some more cap room to work with. Stan will get a trade done for Bickell. Especially with the rumors that the cap will go down.

      You are absolutely wrong in regards to the bonuses. I do agree that something will happen with Bickell and it will likely cost a lot.

      Quoting: F50marco
      Really? Can anyone else vouch for this? How does this work now?

      There is a very simple way to determine this. Use a calculator and add up each of the players. Add up each of the players on that roster (including Player, Bonuses) and add in Bickell buyout and Scuderi retained salary and you get $71.869 million. Exactly what is shown in the cap hit. You can also check this by clicking long term outlook and see that in the Bonus Overages column the number shown is $0.
      bhawks30 liked this.
      Jun. 8, 2016 at 10:26 a.m.
      #8
      Thread Starter
      bhawks30
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      Thanks for pointing this out. End of the day, the Bickell trade will need to happen and it will likely be even more lopsided than the Dallas trade last off-season. Everyone knows we have to get his salary off the books, just like we needed with Sharp, therefore leverage is non-existent. Curious to see who it is going to cost us
       
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