The Bare Minimum

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: OldNYIfan

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: May 25, 2019

Published: May 27, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I've noticed that several newcomers to CapFriendly simply don't understand the issue we've been addressing since September, so I'm posting this construction to illustrate the problem.

Shown here are the 10 forwards under contract plus Jeremy Bracco, four of the defensemen under contract minus Justin Holl plus Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren, and the two goalies under contract. Nathan Horton is on the LTIR, and Mitch Marner, Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen are absent because they are Restricted Free Agents. This roster therefore represents the players available within the system for next season. And any substitutions (i.e., promotions from the Marlies) would make a negligible economic impact.

The bottom line is clear and stark -- even assuming the Maple Leafs would want to go with a 22-man roster (i.e., signing only the 3 RFA's), Toronto has only $12.1M to spare. Even adding Zach Hyman to the LTIR only affords temporary relief: then the budget would be $8.2M for Marner and $3.1M each for Johnsson and Kapanen.

Let's assume that realistically, Marner is going to get $9M and Johnsson and Kapanen together a total of $7M. Now, trading Kadri would just barely solve the economic problem (assuming a $1M player comes back), but doesn't begin to address the on-ice problem of the bottom half of that defense.

The bottom line I that unless Dubas is willing to let Johnsson and Kapanen go for a mere second-round pick each, Toronto is going to have to create at least $7M in cap space over the summer.

Finally, note that Travis Dermott's injury makes the RD weakness even worse.

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2019
2020
2021

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
19	$83,000,000	$65,284,699	$0	$482,500	$17,715,301

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Marleau, Patrick $700,000$700,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Brown, Connor $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Petan, Nicolas $775,000$775,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 2	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2
	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1	Bracco, Jeremy $842,500$842,500 ($82,500$82K) RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 5	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Sparks, Garret $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 1
	Liljegren, Timothy $863,333$863,333 ($400,000$400K) RD RFA - 3
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

May 27, 2019 at 6:26 p.m.

Smokingun71

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,616

Likes: 748

You are 100 percent correct, so if a team out there really wanted one of Kapanen or Johnsson then a offer sheet could pose a problem. Let’s say the Canes offer sheet Kapanen at 4M per and the Leafs match. Then if I were the Canes I would instantly offer sheet Johnsson the same 4M, no way the leafs can match both. I understand that the players have to sign the offer sheet but it could get ugly for the Leafs if a team or teams want to put pressure on them.

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May 27, 2019 at 6:26 p.m.

hockey_nutter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 61

Likes: 14

You are absolutely right, and even still, most teams will work toward a 23 man roster which is an extra 750 000 that needs to be accounted for. Every time I tried to create a roster I had to trade 2+ players, Nylander and Brown, Zaitsev and Kadri(which creates a defensive and center hole), Brown and Kadri, the list goes on, but it looks like leafs need to clear about 8-9 million to make a competitive balanced roster. Dubas has his hands full. I wish we could have a team with 12 forwards, 6 defenseman and 1 goalie and all the extras don't count toward the cap but it doesnt work like that.

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May 27, 2019 at 6:45 p.m.

Chips_n_beer

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 663

Likes: 214

It will be interesting what happens in Toronto this summer. I've got my pop corn popping

Smokingun71, OldNYIfan and blowing_the_zone liked this.

May 27, 2019 at 6:50 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,699

Likes: 25,528

Quoting: Smokingun71

Offer sheets could make a headache a nightmare.

By the way, back on July 5 (before he accepted his qualifying offer) I posted a Toronto construction suggesting that Johnsson should get $2.5M per year. I got roasted and one person even commented "Why are you giving a guy who has 9 NHL games so much money?" My point isn't that the blind-pigs-can-find-the-occasional-truffle cliche is true but that the most important quality a GM can have is foresight.

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May 27, 2019 at 7:09 p.m.

Chips_n_beer

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 663

Likes: 214

Quoting: OldNYIfan

And the old saying "when the watering hole starts to dry up, the animals start to look at each other a little differently"

I am not sure how "loyal" these RFA's will be knowing how much bank has been given out.

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May 27, 2019 at 9:24 p.m.

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Probably got roasted because it was a bad contract. He was offered 2.1m x 2 years at the TDL. He declined that and 2.6m x 4 years. I think I had him at 1m x 2 years. If dubas could go back I’m sure he would either A. Give him a 2 year QO or B. Sign him earlier to a cheap 1 way contract like Moore. Unfortunately he was up to his eyeballs trying to land Tavares, sign nylander and make sure he was able to let his UFA’s go.

As far as offersheets, I’m not too concerned. Most gm’s will try to work out an honest trade first. If kappy or mango are looking for too much they will be traded.

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May 27, 2019 at 9:27 p.m.

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Also wanted to mention this is a great AGM to put up... too bad we can’t have it Stiky’d at the top of the list.

I do completely disagree with letting kappy and Mango go for a 2nd. That’s just ridiculous.

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May 27, 2019 at 10:36 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,699

Likes: 25,528

Quoting: Jamiepo

Thanks, Jamie.

I thought this ws important because I recently had discussions with two newcomers who disputed my position that Dubas is going to have to find a way to cut roughly $9M off the payroll if he is to re-sign Marner, Johnsson and Kapanen at the figures everyone seems to be bandying about.

Chips_n_beer liked this.

May 28, 2019 at 9:25 a.m.

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Nicely done, OldNY.

I landed on Po's agm related to this idea first, and then circled back to your original concept. I think the two of you are spot on with what you're laying out.

When the leafs cap situation is broken down into its relative parts its really not that difficult to see what options exist and what needs to be done. And so long as I don't get too attached to any one player needing to be a leaf, then the way out of this squeeze isn't too difficult. It might not be preferred, but its not difficult.

At the end of the day the leafs have too many good young players looking for raises. This is a good thing, because it means there are assets of value that can be traded out if needed. They aren't bogged down in too many bad or over inflated contracts. That would be a bad thing. The Leafs have lots of options moving forward... and I think we're actually in good shape. Even if that means some changes are coming.

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May 28, 2019 at 9:29 a.m.

#10

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: Chips_n_beer

one of the best comments I've read in some time.. sums things up pretty well, I'd say.

OldNYIfan and Chips_n_beer liked this.

May 29, 2019 at 11:44 a.m.

#11

Jangle29

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,032

Likes: 831

The one problem here is that Johnsson and Kapanen won't cost 7 mil together. Show examples of 3rs line players after one season making that money.
Second is thatvif someone offersheets Kapanen he will leave. He's actually disgustingly overrated

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The Bare Minimum

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