Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 19, 2019

Published: Jun. 19, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

From Dom Luszczyszyn at theathletic.com

"At the moment, my model considers Marner to be the second strongest player of this restricted free agent class behind Brayden Point, but more valuable overall because of the one year age difference which sees Marner worth 0.7 projected wins more over the next eight seasons. Given the variance and uncertainty involved in forecasting that far out, that margin is splitting hairs and there’s a good case to be made for either player for best of class.

Marner’s biggest asset is his playmaking which is nearly unrivalled. The only players projected to be stronger at generating assists are Nikita Kucherov, Connor McDavid and Blake Wheeler; Marner’s ability to drive a power play is a large part of his high standing here. Marner is also top 10 at driving play offensively – though that’s behind three other Leafs including both of his linemates. Defensively he’s weak, but that’s true of most of his teammates and he’s still an excellent player despite that.

So what’s that worth? Our Ian Tulloch already wrote a comprehensive piece about what Marner should make and settled in between $9.1-to-9.7 million over six-to-eight years. Jeff Veillette wrote a thorough breakdown in early May that’s worth reading as well and figured something in the low $9 million range was fair game. At an average projected value of 3.5 wins over the next eight seasons my model figures Marner is worth $9.6 million. That’s also roughly where Evolving Hockey’s contract model stands as well at $9.8 million over eight years (and lower with less term).

That shouldn’t be difficult to agree with, especially if Kucherov and Mark Stone, two wingers stronger than Marner, signed UFA deals (Kucherov was one year away) for $9.5 million. Patrick Kane, a player Marner is often favourably compared to, signed for 11.1 percent of the cap in his second contract. That’s equal to $9.2 million per year this summer.

Everything points to a contract in the ballpark of $9-to-10 million, except for posturing from the Marner camp suggesting he deserves similar money to Auston Matthews, the Leafs’ face of the franchise who plays centre and scores more goals – two qualities that often earn a bigger paycheque. That’s part of negotiating, and the Leafs likely can’t afford to lose this battle. We’ll see which side blinks first."

https://theathletic.com/1030697/2019/06/19/by-the-numbers-evaluating-the-stacked-crop-of-restricted-free-agents-and-what-theyre-worth/


See also:

https://theathletic.com/988241/2019/05/22/tulloch-a-breakdown-of-what-mitch-marner-should-earn-on-his-next-contract-based-on-comparables/

http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/05/03/lets-talk-about-mitch-marner/

I threw together a roster just to show the other RFA's signed and what else needs to be done, I'm not suggesting that this is what the roster could / should look like come September. The defense is terrible and I have no idea what a Marleau deal should look like, I just wanted to see how much cap the Leafs actually needed to drop to slide under the limit. This mock is about Marner, not the rest of the roster. I gave Kap and Johnsson contracts based on Evolving Hockey estimates.