*Wink*

You're not getting Marner or Gardiner for those AAV's, and not at that term for Marner. Rumors suggest Ceci has already verbally agreed to a 1yr 4.5m deal and also suggest Kerfoot will file for ARB and cost about 3.5m on a 1 year deal.

Those numbers leave the Leafs with about 3m in CAP space before Horton goes on LTIR, which then only leaves 8.4m, approximately... meaning, no space for Marner unless someone else is moved out.

Ceci is not signed, if he goes to ARB we have the option to walk from his award, which can be now lower than 3.7M (15% lower than last season's salary).

That number ($8.4) is with a roster of 24 not including marner. They will have to send down at least 2 (probably 3) players clearing a minimum of $2M. That leaves $10.4 for Marner and a roster of 22-23 (including marner)

No one else is being "Moved out" unless by that you mean sent to the marlies

I didn't say Ceci was signed, I'm saying rumors suggest a verbal agreement was reached with Ceci that he wouldn't file for Arbitration and would sign a 1yr 4.5m deal with Toronto, so assuming that happens and Kerfoot gets the 3.5m most expect him to get in Arbitration, that's 8m eaten up of the 11m TOR has available. Putting Horton on LTIR gives you an additional 5.3m, so 8.4m in free CAP space.

According to CAP Friendly, TOR currently has a roster of 22, with Marner, Ceci and Kerfoot left to sign... so 25 players, meaning 2 players get sent down to the Marlies, likely making 700-800k each, so lets say 1.6m in CAP freed up... giving Toronto exactly 10m to spend on Marner and putting them right up against the CAP, if he agrees to that... which with each passing day, seems less and likely he's going to give in and sign for less than JT or Matthews.

They have the option to send down any number of players as long as they have a 20 man roster. I can see the leafs running a 21 man roster (with Dermott and Hyman on IR) to start the season. This would give them plenty of Cap space.

Even in your scenario, placing Hyman and Dermott on IR doesn't free up more CAP space (only LTIR does, technically) and playing with a 21 man roster, instead of 23 only gives you an additional 1.5m roughly in CAP space, depending on who is sent down. And, again, this is all assuming that suddenly Marner decides to sign for 10m or less AAV. Doesn't leave much room for improvements as the season goes on, if needed.

From an outside perspective, it appears Dubas has constructed his roster with the idea Marner won't be there and given himself no wiggle room to sign him.

Never argue with the guy who uses twitter for his source of NYI Offer-sheeting Marner....never.....cause he knows things....

The Aho offer sheet pretty much eliminated the possiblity of Marner getting over 10 unless it is for 8 years (and he doesnt want an 8 year deal)

IMO the possible contracts are approx
6 years $9.5
2-3 years $8.5

Marner will be there to start the year. Even if it is over $10M, there is room for it

Who says the Aho sheet affects Marner in ANY way?? He's not comparing himself to Aho, he's comparing himself to Matthews and JT and that's the contract he's looking for. His argument is that he's lead the Leafs in scoring the last 2 seasons putting up more points then both Matthews and Tavares, so why shouldn't he get paid like them?

I'll tell you another thing, the Panarin situation goes against your argument. Yes, I know Panarin was an UFA, so that makes it a little different, but his numbers over the last 2 years more closely resemble Marners in terms of Goals and Assists. So, I ask you, in a time when RFA's aren't taking less money, why wouldn't Marner compare himself to the Panarin contract and not the Aho contract?

Okay and I am comparing myself to Ovis last deal. Plz sign me to a 13 year $10M AAv deal...

Marner doesnt dictate his value, the market does. Aho is arguably a more valuable player and didnt even get to the 2nd highest tier of OS. Panarin is a UFA and had a bidding war for him so not applicable at all. RFAs should not take less but what RFAs are getting huge deals this year becasue I see alot of them holding out and not alot of teams willing to overpay them (Rantanen, Marner, Point, Boeser....)

Not for nothing, but TOR is the reason RFA's are holding out for more money. Nylander was an RFA and wanted at least 8m, while TOR was offering 6m, he held out and got the middle ground. Matthews was an RFA and was signed to a ridiculous 5yr deal at 11.6m, because he wanted more than JT got, since Matthews is arguably the face of the Leafs... so, tell me again, why someone (Marner) who has out performed both Matthews and JT last year, should settle for 8-9m per??

And lets try a reasonable argument, not the "he's not a center" or "he doesn't score goals like those 2" bull**** arguments. You can also eliminate the "He's not better than Kucherov" arguments since Kuch plays in Tampa where there is no state tax and there for his 9.5m goes much further than it would in other places.

The hope with Nylander was to get him for the same price as Pastrnak ($6.7ish) he got $7M so i say the leafs won that. Matthews didnt "Want what JT got" he looked at McDavid and said "Im a franchise center like him, not quite as good, so ill take a little less". Kane is his closest comparable imo and he took a bridge deal before taking a raise in his UFA years,

There is litterally no precident for a RFA winger to get the kind of money people keep talking about

Regardless, both Nylander and Matthews were RFAs and, as you claimed earlier, shouldn't have had ANY leverage in talks, but clearly did... so now other RFAs are seeing that and using it to their advantage, as they should.

How did they "Clearly" have leverage? Nylander took $1M less than he was asking and the leafs only came up $500k at the most (to avoid him missing the season). Matthews got Market value. The AAV on Matthews deal was never questioned (atleast by leafs fans) it was only the term.

That's a bunch of BS. Leafs fans all over this site were crying you guys paid too much for Matthews. But again, you're own argument deflates your other argument against Marner, if Matthews got that deal as an RFA, why shouldn't Marner get similar? Leafs fans thinking Marner should take less because you guys went out and spent his money on a player you didn't need is the most hysterical thing on this site.

This is my last post since arguing with you is idiodic. Ill talk slow though.

Matthews is a CENTER
Marner is a WINGER

Matthews scores GOALS
Marner PASSES to Tavares

$9 is the Market value for Marner
$11M is the Market value for Matthews

LOL... typical Leafs fan resorting to name calling when faced with logic. I'd point out scenarios where you Winger vs Center logic goes out the window and try to explain to you how goal scorers can't score goals without someone giving them the puck and how Tavares, when he didn't have people passing him the puck, was a 65 point guy, not an 80pt guy... but we've already established logic is something Leafs fans can't understand.... have a good one!

Pretty much everyone except Paul Marner says the Aho deal affects Mitch

Well, actually 2 people, Mitch feels the same. He’s a grown man, if he wanted to sign for less he doesn’t need Daddy’s permission. And in the end, it’s what he believes he’s worth that matters.