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Why are people mis-representing the Leafs cap situation so aggressively

Created by: drewjenks
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 6, 2019
Published: Jul. 6, 2019
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C, LW
NMC
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RW
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UFA - 1
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UFA - 4
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RW
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$737,500$737,500
LW
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G
M-NTC
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UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
G
UFA - 1
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$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 3
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$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
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RD
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Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:11 p.m.
#1
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I was hoping to be able to read a lengthy description about why you think this but nope. what do you mean by aggressively? regardless, it just comes down to marners number, and i doubt he takes 10M at 6 years. the most likely scenario is 9 at around 3 years or less, or they get him for somewhere above 10.5-11.5 depending on if he receives OS. word is he will only do a short term length if its an OS but teams dont want to deal with this same situation that soon from now, nor do they want to give up large amount of picks for a short deal. leafs do have some flexibility in that they can run a shorter roster than 23 in case his number is higher than they want. people just like to make fun of the leafs because its the market that doesnt shut up about stuff and likes poking fun at the cap crunch that the leafs and their teams will succumb to at some point.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:11 p.m.
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Edited Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:31 p.m.
.

- This roster has 22 players and $1,609,000 in cap-space (a full NHL roster usually has 23 players).
- With that said, a team can carry as few as 20 players (which would add $1,500,000 if two 750K players are removed).
- During the summer, teams can exceed the salary-cap by 10% (which adds another $8,150,000 in cap-space until October).
- LTIR contracts stay on the cap during the summer though (so that $8,150,000 is mostly taken up by Horton and Hyman).

In conclusion, the Leafs could sign Marner to a $13,659,000 cap-hit right now ... but they'd have to shed around $1,000,000 before Hyman comes back from his injury.

But if they sign Marner to anything reasonable, they won't have to do anything.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:18 p.m.
#3
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because he denied an 8x11
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:22 p.m.
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I think because no one expects him to sign for 10 unless it’s a really short term. If he signs or gets offer sheeted for 11.5-12.5 they’re in a lot of trouble. If not, they’ll be fine just have to carry 22.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:24 p.m.
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Quoting: AJM2466
I was hoping to be able to read a lengthy description about why you think this but nope. what do you mean by aggressively? regardless, it just comes down to marners number, and i doubt he takes 10M at 6 years. the most likely scenario is 9 at around 3 years or less, or they get him for somewhere above 10.5-11.5 depending on if he receives OS. word is he will only do a short term length if its an OS but teams dont want to deal with this same situation that soon from now, nor do they want to give up large amount of picks for a short deal. leafs do have some flexibility in that they can run a shorter roster than 23 in case his number is higher than they want. people just like to make fun of the leafs because its the market that doesnt shut up about stuff and likes poking fun at the cap crunch that the leafs and their teams will succumb to at some point.


Here's the description:

- This roster has 22 players and $284,000 in cap-space (a full NHL roster usually has 23 players).
- With that said, a team can carry as few as 20 players (which would add $1,500,000 if two 750K players are removed).
- Hyman will also be starting the season on LTIR (which would add $1,4750,000 in October if he's replaced with Petan).
- During the summer, teams can exceed the salary-cap by 10% (which adds another $8,150,000 in cap-space until October).
- LTIR contracts stay on the cap during the summer though (so that $8,150,000 is really only $2,850,000 because of Horton).

In conclusion, the Leafs could sign Marner to a $14,635,000 cap-hit right now ... but they'd have to shed around $2,000,000 before Hyman comes back from his injury.

But if they sign Marner to anything reasonable, they won't have to do anything.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:26 p.m.
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To answer your question....either misinformed or just Leafs haters. For some reason, some think Horton is 5.3m cap detriment to the Leafs. Nope can't sign Marner because that would put the Leafs over the cap by 1m in July. Seems only the Leafs have to cap compliant in July, not October like other teams
Marner is the only RFA that is going to be paid big money. But for some reason according to some Marner has to get the same salary as Matthews or else he won't sign. Gee if no one if offering Marner 11m, why should the Leafs offer more? Is Marner really going sit out the season because he wants let's say 1m more than Leafs final offer? And no other team is offering more than the Leafs.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:26 p.m.
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Quoting: drewjenks
Here's the description:

- This roster has 22 players and $284,000 in cap-space (a full NHL roster usually has 23 players).
- With that said, a team can carry as few as 20 players (which would add $1,500,000 if two 750K players are removed).
- Hyman will also be starting the season on LTIR (which would add $1,4750,000 in October if he's replaced with Petan).
- During the summer, teams can exceed the salary-cap by 10% (which adds another $8,150,000 in cap-space until October).
- LTIR contracts stay on the cap during the summer though (so that $8,150,000 is really only $2,850,000 because of Horton).

In conclusion, the Leafs could sign Marner to a $14,635,000 cap-hit right now ... but they'd have to shed around $2,000,000 before Hyman comes back from his injury.

But if they sign Marner to anything reasonable, they won't have to do anything.


Yeah that’s the point, if he signs for 12 they either have to carry 20 or move a roster player.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:28 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
To answer your question....either misinformed or just Leafs haters. For some reason, some think Horton is 5.3m cap detriment to the Leafs. Nope can't sign Marner because that would put the Leafs over the cap by 1m in July. Seems only the Leafs have to cap compliant in July, not October like other teams
Marner is the only RFA that is going to be paid big money. But for some reason according to some Marner has to get the same salary as Matthews or else he won't sign. Gee if no one if offering Marner 11m, why should the Leafs offer more? Is Marner really going sit out the season because he wants let's say 1m more than Leafs final offer?


No one thinks the Horton contract is bad but if Marner gets offer sheeted or holds out for 12 the leafs are in trouble.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:30 p.m.
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Edited Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:47 p.m.
Quoting: AJM2466
I was hoping to be able to read a lengthy description about why you think this but nope. what do you mean by aggressively? regardless, it just comes down to marners number, and i doubt he takes 10M at 6 years. the most likely scenario is 9 at around 3 years or less, or they get him for somewhere above 10.5-11.5 depending on if he receives OS. word is he will only do a short term length if its an OS but teams dont want to deal with this same situation that soon from now, nor do they want to give up large amount of picks for a short deal. leafs do have some flexibility in that they can run a shorter roster than 23 in case his number is higher than they want. people just like to make fun of the leafs because its the market that doesnt shut up about stuff and likes poking fun at the cap crunch that the leafs and their teams will succumb to at some point.


Quoting: drewjenks
.

- This roster has 22 players and $284,000 in cap-space (a full roster will usually have 23 players though).
- With that said, a team can carry as few as 20 players if necessary (which would add $1,500,000 as a last resort).
- Hyman will also be starting the season on LTIR (which would add $1,4750,000 if he's replaced with Petan).
- During the summer, teams can exceed the salary-cap by 10% (which adds another $8,150,000 until October).


This coming from a team with no current player making over $6m/yr (CBJ)...It has been extremely difficult for teams with 2 superstars to succeed. Chicago with Toews/Kane, Washington with Ovi/Backstrom, Pittsburgh with Crosby/Malkin, Edmonton with McDavid/Draisatl, and now Toronto with Matthews/Tavares. Honestly Marner knows this, and he has kept this in mind. Being a younger player (Panarin came into the league at 23/24?. Marner wants to be top dog and paid for his contribution.
Now Toronto wants 3 $10m+ players? And to compete. They will be very hard-presses to achieve this. I would rather have a ream of $5m+ players than 3 $10-12m+ players. Good luck.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:31 p.m.
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Quoting: drewjenks
Here's the description:

- This roster has 22 players and $284,000 in cap-space (a full NHL roster usually has 23 players).
- With that said, a team can carry as few as 20 players (which would add $1,500,000 if two 750K players are removed).
- Hyman will also be starting the season on LTIR (which would add $1,4750,000 in October if he's replaced with Petan).
- During the summer, teams can exceed the salary-cap by 10% (which adds another $8,150,000 in cap-space until October).
- LTIR contracts stay on the cap during the summer though (so that $8,150,000 is really only $2,850,000 because of Horton).

In conclusion, the Leafs could sign Marner to a $14,635,000 cap-hit right now ... but they'd have to shed around $2,000,000 before Hyman comes back from his injury.

But if they sign Marner to anything reasonable, they won't have to do anything.


Just ran it with your 14.635 number with hyman and dermott back (assume mid season), and they would have to clear ~3 million without removing a player. because they wouldnt be able to remove a player, they would have to clear 3.7(assuming replaced player is league min) which would mean trading either nylander, rielly, muzzin, or ceci. that 14 number is extreme and wouldnt work without trading someone big, which is not happening. ceci maybe but still, leafs arent signing him to 14.635. run it at ~12.5, and its pretty snug with the lower roster number.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:33 p.m.
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Quoting: Hedman77
because he denied an 8x11


Interesting story .... tell me more?

Is he demanding $13,500,000? ... I think that's the number Paul Dreger was using right?
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:33 p.m.
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
This coming from a team with no current player making over $6m/yr (CBJ). It has been extremely difficult for teams with 2 superstars to succeed. Chicago with Toews/Kane, Washington with Ovi/Backstrom, Pittsburgh with Crosby/Malkin, Edmonton with McDavid/Draisatl, and now Toronto with Matthews/Tavares. Honestly Marner knows this, and he has kept this in mi d. Being a younger player (Panarin came into the league at 23/24?.
Now Toronto wants 3 $10m+ players? And to compete. They will be very hard-presses to achieve this. I would rather have a ream of $5m+ players than 3 $10-12m+ players. Good luck.


bro chicago, caps, and pens have all won cups. if the oilers had competent management, im sure theyd be on track to being at least somewhat close. "extremely difficult" is a poor term to use when 3/4 of the teams have won cups, one of them back to back. come on man use your brain!
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:34 p.m.
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Quoting: Ngp2
No one thinks the Horton contract is bad but if Marner gets offer sheeted or holds out for 12 the leafs are in trouble.


How so?

You can't just say "in trouble" without following that up with a description ...
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:38 p.m.
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Quoting: Ngp2
No one thinks the Horton contract is bad but if Marner gets offer sheeted or holds out for 12 the leafs are in trouble.


Sorry, there are so many on this site that think the Leafs are cap screwed because Horton and LTIR. And no the Leaf are not in trouble if some team offers 12m, it would just force the Leafs to make a decision whether to accept or decline a SIGNED offer sheet. They would be in cap trouble if they matched, but so what the other team by next year also. Let's can not match, get 4 first rounders and spend the 10m they have allotted for Marner on other player(s). Maybe not this year but soon. So if Marner get 12m,,,,does the superior Point gets offered 14m....Or Rantanen 11m. And what about Laine, Connor, Tzachuk and McAvoy. Really think GMs want to overpay for other teams RFAs when they have their own to sign or soon will have own RFAs to sign?
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:43 p.m.
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Quoting: drewjenks
Interesting story .... tell me more?

Is he demanding $13,500,000? ... I think that's the number Paul Dreger was using right?


Think it was Paul Dregor. So if Marner doesn't like Leafs final offer....lets say in the first week of September, and no offer sheets are coming, I can just assume that Marner is going to refuse to sign for anything less than 13.5m contract in 2019...and wait till the summer of 2020 to resume negotiations. As I said it must be the Leaf haters that think what a player wants....has meaning.
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Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:44 p.m.
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Quoting: drewjenks
How so?

You can't just say "in trouble" without following that up with a description ...


Add 2M to the Marner contract and they’re over the cap now. Hyman comes back and they’re over with 20, aka the minimum roster, feels bad to me.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:46 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Sorry, there are so many on this site that think the Leafs are cap screwed because Horton and LTIR. And no the Leaf are not in trouble if some team offers 12m, it would just force the Leafs to make a decision whether to accept or decline a SIGNED offer sheet. They would be in cap trouble if they matched, but so what the other team by next year also. Let's can not match, get 4 first rounders and spend the 10m they have allotted for Marner on other player(s). Maybe not this year but soon. So if Marner get 12m,,,,does the superior Point gets offered 14m....Or Rantanen 11m. And what about Laine, Connor, Tzachuk and McAvoy. Really think GMs want to overpay for other teams RFAs when they have their own to sign or soon will have own RFAs to sign?


Yeah I doubt GMs think that far. A team with space like NYI could do it. Losing their third best player would be a big issue for the leafs, they might be better in 5 years but there’s no one they can replace him with and those picks won’t pan out for a while.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:51 p.m.
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Quoting: Ngp2
Yeah I doubt GMs think that far. A team with space like NYI could do it. Losing their third best player would be a big issue for the leafs, they might be better in 5 years but there’s no one they can replace him with and those picks won’t pan out for a while.


True the picks don't pan out for a while. But the 10m that was set aside for Marner by the Leaf can be spend almost immediately and certainly next summer. And even the Islanders might have cap issues with an 11.5m Marner. Isles have their own RFAs to sign next summer including Pulock and Barzel who might be expensive.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:54 p.m.
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
This coming from a team with no current player making over $6m/yr (CBJ). It has been extremely difficult for teams with 2 superstars to succeed. Chicago with Toews/Kane, Washington with Ovi/Backstrom, Pittsburgh with Crosby/Malkin, Edmonton with McDavid/Draisatl, and now Toronto with Matthews/Tavares. Honestly Marner knows this, and he has kept this in mind. Being a younger player (Panarin came into the league at 23/24?. Marner wants to be top dog and paid for his contribution.
Now Toronto wants 3 $10m+ players? And to compete. They will be very hard-presses to achieve this. I would rather have a ream of $5m+ players than 3 $10-12m+ players. Good luck.


"It has been extremely difficult for teams with 2 superstars to succeed".

----

You then go on to list Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington as the teams finding it "extremely difficult to succeed" with two superstars.

Those three teams have won 6 (SIX!) of the last 10 Stanley Cups ... is that your idea of extremly difficult to succeed?

And Edmonton would have won cups too if they didn't trade:

- Hall's $6,000,000 for Lucic's $6,000,000
- Schultz's $5,500,000 for Sekera's $5,500,000
- Barzals $925,000 for Reinhart's $925,000
- Petry's $5,500,000 for Russell's $4,000,000

Their failure has everything to do with hockey trades and nothing to do cap-constraints.

McDavid
Draisaitl
Barzal
Hall
Nuge
Chiasson

Klefbom
Schultz
Nurse
Petry

Would have cost about the same as their current roster for the past two seasons ... and next season.
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Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:56 p.m.
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
This coming from a team with no current player making over $6m/yr (CBJ)...It has been extremely difficult for teams with 2 superstars to succeed. Chicago with Toews/Kane, Washington with Ovi/Backstrom, Pittsburgh with Crosby/Malkin, Edmonton with McDavid/Draisatl, and now Toronto with Matthews/Tavares. Honestly Marner knows this, and he has kept this in mind. Being a younger player (Panarin came into the league at 23/24?. Marner wants to be top dog and paid for his contribution. He doesn’t want to take a discount for 2-3 years because Toronto signed Tavares last year. Marner is a winger, but like Panarin, plays like a center with his vision and ability to make those around him better (score) by assists stat. Very similar to Panarin this past year. Marner numbers were very comparable, and he should be paid $11.5m or $12m per year.
Now Toronto wants 3 $10m+ players? They will be very hard-presses to achieve this. I personally would rather have a team with a star or two but have more solid fill in players at $4m-$5m. Either way (whether Marner takes a discount, Toronto trades him, or he gets offer sheeted, it is a good problem to have). I just think his mindset is if he is performing like Panarin, he should get paid like Panarin. There is nothing wrong with that.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:56 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: palhal
True the picks don't pan out for a while. But the 10m that was set aside for Marner by the Leaf can be spend almost immediately and certainly next summer. And even the Islanders might have cap issues with an 11.5m Marner. Isles have their own RFAs to sign next summer including Pulock and Barzel who might be expensive.


Who are they getting to replace him? Cap space is great but they haven’t won a playoff series in 15 years, can’t keep waiting and building for the future.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 9:59 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: Hedman77
because he denied an 8x11


The offer was 8 x 10m
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:07 p.m.
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Quoting: Ngp2
Who are they getting to replace him? Cap space is great but they haven’t won a playoff series in 15 years, can’t keep waiting and building for the future.


The Leafs have a sold out building they can wait, just like Isles in what their 4 playoff rounds winners since 85, But of course there no immediate replacement for Marner. But that doesn't mean the Leafs should overpay him. There was post with "Marner to the Isles 2020/21/22. It certainly shows the Isles will have cap problems if they overpay Marner.
Leafs just like Tampa, the Jets, the Flames....just like all the team with expensive RFAs sign can wait. They don't have to succumb to a "players wants". An offer sheet though gets their attention and demands a decision. But let's see an offer sheet, it's about the only leverage a player has.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:08 p.m.
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Quoting: drewjenks
"It has been extremely difficult for teams with 2 superstars to succeed".

----

You then go on to list Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington as the teams finding it "extremely difficult to succeed" with two superstars.

Those three teams have won 6 (SIX!) of the last 10 Stanley Cups ... is that your idea of extremly difficult to succeed?

And Edmonton would have won cups too if they didn't trade:

- Hall's $6,000,000 for Lucic's $6,000,000
- Schultz's $5,500,000 for Sekera's $5,500,000
- Barzals $925,000 for Reinhart's $925,000
- Petry's $5,500,000 for Russell's $4,000,000

Their failure has everything to do with hockey trades and nothing to do cap-constraints.

McDavid
Draisaitl
Barzal
Hall
Nuge
Chiasson

Klefbom
Schultz
Nurse
Petry

Would have cost about the same as their current roster for the past two seasons ... and next season.


bro you cant make this stuff up, I am CRYING of laughter. I don't think ive seen anything so wild in my life. thank you for the 6 out of 10 stat because I know theyve had so much success. he mustve just got into hockey because hes watching the aftermath rn. I have never seen a wilder take. not even a hot take, just WILD.
Jul. 6, 2019 at 10:09 p.m.
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Quoting: AJM2466
bro chicago, caps, and pens have all won cups. if the oilers had competent management, im sure theyd be on track to being at least somewhat close. "extremely difficult" is a poor term to use when 3/4 of the teams have won cups, one of them back to back. come on man use your brain!


All due respect, my point was, in the salary cap era, Panarin is the comparable now. Regardless of his (Marner’s) age, Bread-man just set the precedent (and he probably took a $1m discount if you believe some sources). So even if Toronto has Team control (hence my comment about a good problem to have), you can hate on Marner all you want Leafs fans, but he is worth more than Toronto can currently pay him right now, and that is a fact.
 
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