Forums/Armchair-GM

New 3rd line and picks

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Initial Creation Date: Nov 1, 2019
Published: Nov 1, 2019 at 2:51 pm
Team: 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers
Team Explanation
Opted for Nygard as the #2LW to make up for his lack of special teams time plus his speed cancels out Neal's old boots. Gives Chlapik and Ho-Sang a more proven option as a winger. Perreault being more responsible in his own end should help make up for Ho-Sang's inevitable gaffs.

The only real asset out for Edmonton here is Puljujarvi, and they're walking away with a fair bit coming their way in deal that benefit both sides rather well.

Haas goes back to Europe, and Granlund may or may not be claimed on waivers. Neither is a loss for Edmonton.
Trades
EDM
    CGY
    1. 2020 3rd round pick (EDM)
    EDM
    1. Ceci, Cody
    2. 2020 2nd round pick (TOR)
    3. 2020 6th round pick (COL)
    TOR
    1. Benning, Matthew
    2. Kassian, Zack ($975,000 retained)
    EDM
    1. Chlapik, Filip
    2. 2020 2nd round pick (DAL)
    OTT
    1. Puljujärvi, Jesse [Reserve List]
    EDM
    1. Perreault, Mathieu
    WPG
    1. Russell, Kris
    EDM
    1. Ho-Sang, Joshua
    NYI
    1. Hebig, Cameron
    Buyouts
    • Andrej Sekera: $2,500,000
    • Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333
    • Eric Gryba: $300,000
    Retained Salary Transactions
    • Zack Kassian: $975,000 (50%)
    • Milan Lucic: $750,000 (13%)
    Buried
    • Cody Ceci: $3,425,000 ($4,500,000)
    • Sam Gagner: $2,075,000 ($3,150,000)
    • Markus Granlund: $225,000 ($1,300,000)
    DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
    2020
    EDM
    EDM
    TOR
    DAL
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    COL
    2021
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    PIT
    EDM
    2022
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    EDM
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
    22$81,500,000$79,731,123$0$1,902,500$1,768,877

    Roster

    Left WingCenterRight Wing
    EDM
    Draisaitl, Leon
    $8,500,000
    C, LW, RW
    UFA - 6
    EDM
    McDavid, Connor
    $12,500,000
    C
    UFA - 7
    EDM
    Jurco, Tomas
    $750,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    EDM
    Nygård, Joakim
    $925,000
    LW
    UFA - 1
    EDM
    Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
    $6,000,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 2
    EDM
    Neal, James
    $5,750,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 4
    WPG
    Perreault, Mathieu
    $4,125,000
    LW, C
    NTC
    UFA - 2
    OTT
    Chlapik, Filip
    $728,333
    C
    RFA - 1
    NYI
    Ho-Sang, Joshua
    $874,125
    RW, C
    RFA - 1
    EDM
    Khaira, Jujhar
    $1,200,000
    C, LW
    RFA - 2
    EDM
    Sheahan, Riley
    $900,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 1
    EDM
    Archibald, Josh
    $1,000,000
    RW
    UFA - 1
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    EDM
    Nurse, Darnell
    $3,200,000
    LD
    RFA - 1
    EDM
    Bear, Ethan
    $720,000
    RD
    RFA - 1
    EDM
    Koskinen, Mikko
    $4,500,000
    G
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    EDM
    Klefbom, Oscar
    $4,167,000
    LD
    UFA - 4
    EDM
    Larsson, Adam
    $4,166,666
    RD
    UFA - 2
    EDM
    Smith, Mike
    $2,000,000
    G
    NTC
    UFA - 1
    EDM
    Lagesson, William
    $741,666
    LD
    RFA - 1
    EDM
    Persson, Joel
    $1,000,000
    RD
    RFA - 1
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    EDM
    Manning, Brandon
    $2,250,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    EDM
    Brodziak, Kyle
    $1,150,000
    C
    UFA - 1
    EDM
    Chiasson, Alex
    $2,150,000
    RW
    UFA - 2
    EDM
    Mantha, Ryan
    $870,000
    RD
    RFA - 1

    Special Teams

    Power Play 1
    Nugent-Hopkins, R.
    Draisaitl, L.
    Neal, J.
    Bear, E.
    McDavid, C.
    Power Play 2
    Ho-Sang, J.
    Chlapik, F.
    Perreault, M.
    Persson, J.
    Klefbom, O.
    Penalty Kill 1
    Sheahan, R.
    Archibald, J.
    Nurse, D.
    Larsson, A.
    Penalty Kill 2
    Khaira, J.
    Chlapik, F.
    Klefbom, O.
    Lagesson, W.

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    Nov 1, 2019 at 2:52
    #1
    Joined: May 2019
    Posts: 2,201
    Likes: 702
    2 ahl players on the 3rd line is not a great idea
    CD282 liked this.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 2:53
    #2
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: Copenhagen
    2 ahl players on the 3rd line is not a great idea


    Hasn't sunk the Oilers yet, and there's a very clear argument that Chlapik and Ho-Sang have higher ceilings than any combination Edmonton is running right now.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 3:18
    #3
    Joined: Jan 2018
    Posts: 4,981
    Likes: 1,948
    Quoting: Copenhagen
    2 ahl players on the 3rd line is not a great idea


    Chlapik is an NHL player. He may not be a 3C right now, but he's definitely deserving of an NHL job right now. Not going to be worse than Khaira or Sheahan in any case.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 3:39
    #4
    Joined: May 2017
    Posts: 1,631
    Likes: 169
    Ceci is a pretty lateral move, a loss even if you could see Kassian staying.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 3:49
    #5
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: oilnate
    Ceci is a pretty lateral move, a loss even if you could see Kassian staying.


    I think re-signing Kassian would be a bad move for the Oilers given his pricepoint and what Edmonton has ahead of him in the minors. I'd rather look at getting an asset back now.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 4:05
    #6
    Joined: May 2017
    Posts: 1,631
    Likes: 169
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    I think re-signing Kassian would be a bad move for the Oilers given his pricepoint and what Edmonton has ahead of him in the minors. I'd rather look at getting an asset back now.


    I guess come the tdl depends on where the Oilers are. Would also depends on how much he wants, right now I would guess they might get him for around 3. I don't really think we have to many guys to replace his grit and speed. Benson needs to gain a step to crack the top 6, Lavoie is still a couple years out, I guess bottoms 6ers are easy enough to pick up though
    Nov 1, 2019 at 4:07
    #7
    Joined: Mar 2017
    Posts: 6,638
    Likes: 1,482
    We don't need or want Ceci. Especially if he's going to play in Bakersfield. That's worse asset management than Chairelli.
    Copenhagen liked this.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 4:22
    #8
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: oilnate
    I guess come the tdl depends on where the Oilers are. Would also depends on how much he wants, right now I would guess they might get him for around 3. I don't really think we have to many guys to replace his grit and speed. Benson needs to gain a step to crack the top 6, Lavoie is still a couple years out, I guess bottoms 6ers are easy enough to pick up though


    That $3M number really scares me.

    Ignoring his production this season, Kassian has always been a quality 4th-line NHL forward. His production alongside McDavid and Draisaitl has been fine, but this is clearly not a long-term solution and smells a lot like Chiasson 2.0. Everyone and their dog regrets that signing now, as he isn't producing and quite often cant find himself on the ice.

    $3M is the going rate for a quality 3rd-line forward, not a quality 4th-line forward that can sometimes fit in with your two big guns. Assuming Yamamoto makes the team next year in any capacity (1st or 3rd line RW being the only two outcomes there) and the Oilers go for a cheap, effective PK forward as their #4W, there is no room for Kassian. That money would be better served on a Toffoli or Hoffman as a top-line option or on a Namestnikov as a 3rd-line stand-in until Lavoie is NHL-ready.

    His speed is replaceable, and I think the notion of his grit is overblown. He hasn't fought yet all season and I can think of a few instances where had he connected with some of his long-range, hunt the guy hits, he'd likely have been suspended. Draisaitl has shown to be physically imposing enough that teams don't really tend to take a run at him, and no enforcer as his RW will keep some dirtbag from taking a run at McDavid. Khaira, Neal, Nurse, Larsson, and a few other guys on the team aren't afraid to throw the body or take some punishment to make a play. It's strictly a matter of opinion, but I'd rather see Edmonton take an approach more similarly to Toronto in terms of allocating money in skilled players that make the team more of a threat up front. If you could flip Russell for Perreault and run a top-9 that looked like:

    Draisaitl - McDavid - [Toffoli]
    Benson - RNH - Neal
    Perreault - McLeod - Yamamoto

    and had a 4th line that contained Khaira and your two other dedicated PK forwards, you'd automatically have a situation where the offensive firepower on this team rivals the Leafs on paper AND you're intrinsically tougher. Remember, Nurse and Larsson are two big, punishing defenders that eat up a ton of ice-time: teams won't be lining up to goon all over Edmonton's skill guys.
    oilnate liked this.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 4:24
    #9
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: CD282
    We don't need or want Ceci. Especially if he's going to play in Bakersfield. That's worse asset management than Chairelli.


    Dead cap for half a season in exchange for a 2nd Round Pick, and all it costs the team are two players they shouldn't intend on keeping past the end of this season and who couldn't combine to pull in a pair of 3rd Round Picks? Not sure about that.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 4:31
    #10
    Joined: May 2017
    Posts: 1,631
    Likes: 169
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    That $3M number really scares me.

    Ignoring his production this season, Kassian has always been a quality 4th-line NHL forward. His production alongside McDavid and Draisaitl has been fine, but this is clearly not a long-term solution and smells a lot like Chiasson 2.0. Everyone and their dog regrets that signing now, as he isn't producing and quite often cant find himself on the ice.

    $3M is the going rate for a quality 3rd-line forward, not a quality 4th-line forward that can sometimes fit in with your two big guns. Assuming Yamamoto makes the team next year in any capacity (1st or 3rd line RW being the only two outcomes there) and the Oilers go for a cheap, effective PK forward as their #4W, there is no room for Kassian. That money would be better served on a Toffoli or Hoffman as a top-line option or on a Namestnikov as a 3rd-line stand-in until Lavoie is NHL-ready.

    His speed is replaceable, and I think the notion of his grit is overblown. He hasn't fought yet all season and I can think of a few instances where had he connected with some of his long-range, hunt the guy hits, he'd likely have been suspended. Draisaitl has shown to be physically imposing enough that teams don't really tend to take a run at him, and no enforcer as his RW will keep some dirtbag from taking a run at McDavid. Khaira, Neal, Nurse, Larsson, and a few other guys on the team aren't afraid to throw the body or take some punishment to make a play. It's strictly a matter of opinion, but I'd rather see Edmonton take an approach more similarly to Toronto in terms of allocating money in skilled players that make the team more of a threat up front. If you could flip Russell for Perreault and run a top-9 that looked like:

    Draisaitl - McDavid - [Toffoli]
    Benson - RNH - Neal
    Perreault - McLeod - Yamamoto

    and had a 4th line that contained Khaira and your two other dedicated PK forwards, you'd automatically have a situation where the offensive firepower on this team rivals the Leafs on paper AND you're intrinsically tougher. Remember, Nurse and Larsson are two big, punishing defenders that eat up a ton of ice-time: teams won't be lining up to goon all over Edmonton's skill guys.


    I can agree with that. Not sure I'd keep Ceci though as I'm not sure he is mobile enough to fit in. I think Kassian can be an effective third liner for us. To clarify 3 is the most I could see him getting, Ferland got 3.5 as an apt comaprable, except Ferland was more productive. If the Oilers aren't in a playoff spot at the TDL, provided we can get a second or similar value I would support a Kassian trade. Congratulations you have changed my mind
    Nov 1, 2019 at 4:31
    #11
    Joined: Mar 2017
    Posts: 6,638
    Likes: 1,482
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Dead cap for half a season in exchange for a 2nd Round Pick, and all it costs the team are two players they shouldn't intend on keeping past the end of this season and who couldn't combine to pull in a pair of 3rd Round Picks? Not sure about that.


    Benning and Kassian are both assets on the Oilers roster and Ceci is doing quite well so far this year, he's #2 in TOI for the Leafs and has the highest +/- among defensemen. Do you even watch the games??

    BTW, Benning is worth a 2nd, no problem.

    Really, really bad move.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 4:33
    #12
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: oilnate
    I can agree with that. Not sure I'd keep Ceci though as I'm not sure he is mobile enough to fit in. I think Kassian can be an effective third liner for us. To clarify 3 is the most I could see him getting, Ferland got 3.5 as an apt comaprable, except Ferland was more productive. If the Oilers aren't in a playoff spot at the TDL, provided we can get a second or similar value I would support a Kassian trade. Congratulations you have changed my mind


    I don't think I've made it clear enough that I've only acquired Ceci in order to pull in an additional 2nd Round Pick. He's send immediately through waivers on his way to Bakersfield. I doubt Kassian and Benning alone could bring in a pair of 3rd Round Picks; I've instead optimize their value and capitalized on Toronto's need to rid themselves of Ceci and fill in their roster. Toronto gets the option of extending Benning into next season (or beyond) so they don't walk away from this entirely empty-handed. Nevermind the additional $1.3M they free up.
    oilnate liked this.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 4:44
    #13
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: CD282
    Benning and Kassian are both assets on the Oilers roster and Ceci is doing quite well so far this year, he's #2 in TOI for the Leafs and has the highest +/- among defensemen. Do you even watch the games??

    BTW, Benning is worth a 2nd, no problem.

    Really, really bad move.


    I've watched more Leafs games than Oilers games this year actually, and I can confirm that his TOI is out of necessity and Babcock's unwillingness to give Holl a shot alongside Rielly. Ceci loses the majority of his net-front battles, has a low on-ice sv%, and is riding a PDO bender. His usage on the PK has been abysmal, and his status as a staple on the Leafs' PK is probably a big reason for their bottom-10 status (keeping in mind they were only marginally better last year, but they are trending down this season). The only thing keeping him at NHL-replacement level right now is how much icetime he's seen alongside Morgan Reilly and the fact that the whole thing hasn't come tumbling down.

    Find me a team that pays a 2nd Round Pick for Benning. He might be worth a 4th Round Pick on his own right now.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 5:45
    #14
    Joined: Mar 2017
    Posts: 6,638
    Likes: 1,482
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    I've watched more Leafs games than Oilers games this year actually, and I can confirm that his TOI is out of necessity and Babcock's unwillingness to give Holl a shot alongside Rielly. Ceci loses the majority of his net-front battles, has a low on-ice sv%, and is riding a PDO bender. His usage on the PK has been abysmal, and his status as a staple on the Leafs' PK is probably a big reason for their bottom-10 status (keeping in mind they were only marginally better last year, but they are trending down this season). The only thing keeping him at NHL-replacement level right now is how much icetime he's seen alongside Morgan Reilly and the fact that the whole thing hasn't come tumbling down.

    Find me a team that pays a 2nd Round Pick for Benning. He might be worth a 4th Round Pick on his own right now.


    - Carolina paid a 2nd for TVR, who isn't as good as Benning.
    - Buffalo paid a 2nd + a 5th for Colin Miller
    - In a re-draft Benning would be picked about 35-40th, that's early 2nd round material.
    - The average 2nd round pick has about a 25% chance of playing 200+ NHL games, which Benning just surpassed recently.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 6:13
    #15
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Edited Nov 1, 2019 at 6:50
    Quoting: CD282
    - Carolina paid a 2nd for TVR, who isn't as good as Benning.
    - Buffalo paid a 2nd + a 5th for Colin Miller
    - In a re-draft Benning would be picked about 35-40th, that's early 2nd round material.
    - The average 2nd round pick has about a 25% chance of playing 200+ NHL games, which Benning just surpassed recently.


    - Benning and TVR are just about equal, with Benning producing just a smidge more but with TVR being much better defensively. Considering TVR also went with a 7th Round Pick in exchange for said 2nd Round Pick, I'm fine splitting hairs and saying all the differences equate to Benning at about a late 2nd Round Pick or Early 3rd Round Pick
    - Using draftsite (https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2012) as a basis for a re-draft, Benning's name coincidentally doesn't show up either. It's probably a bit out of date, and there are names in the bottom of the 2nd Round that simply didn't make it. Adds a bit of credence to Benning being a late 2nd / early 3rd in an omniscient re-draft.
    - Colin Miller is better offensively and defensively than Matt Benning, so I genuinely don't have a clue as to how you feel a 5th Round Pick bridges that gap. If anything that cements Benning in the 3rd Round Pick territory given what we know above.
    - This means nothing in the context of Benning's value as-is

    You also have to consider the market as it is right now: teams typically hold onto picks a lot tighter than they used to, ESPECIALLY anything within the top-100. What has Benning done as a bottom-paring defender to warrant paying mid-pairing prices for? Which team has the luxury and the need in order to pull the trigger on a trade like that?

    If packaging him with Kassian gets me that coveted top-62 pick and all I really have to do in return is bury the back-half of Ceci's deal, then I'd take that.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 6:36
    #16
    Joined: May 2019
    Posts: 2,201
    Likes: 702
    Quoting: CD282
    We don't need or want Ceci. Especially if he's going to play in Bakersfield. That's worse asset management than Chairelli.


    10000% correct
    Nov 1, 2019 at 6:48
    #17
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: Copenhagen
    10000% correct


    Breaks down to this then. Do you want:

    - A 2nd Round Pick
    - Maybe a 3rd and a 4th Round Pick
    - Trade Kassian for a 3rd and keep Benning
    - Trade Benning for a 4th and keep Kassian
    - Let Kassian walk for nothing, re-sign Benning
    - Let Benning walk for nothing, re-sign Kassian

    Once you've picked, get back to me then explain how it's worse asset management than Chiarelli proper. I'm of the mindset of not keeping either player AND optimizing how much value I can get back for both of them. Neither is worth a 2nd Round Pick on their own, and statistically, another 2nd Round Pick is more valuable on draft day than both a 3rd and 4th Round Pick. Ignore the name coming back, it's strictly a salary play to bury in the minors and guarantee the return of that 2nd Round Pick. There is no obligation to re-sign Ceci nor play him at the AHL level, and both Benning and Kassian are replaceable assets.
    Nov 1, 2019 at 7:36
    #18
    Joined: May 2019
    Posts: 2,201
    Likes: 702
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Breaks down to this then. Do you want:

    - A 2nd Round Pick
    - Maybe a 3rd and a 4th Round Pick
    - Trade Kassian for a 3rd and keep Benning
    - Trade Benning for a 4th and keep Kassian
    - Let Kassian walk for nothing, re-sign Benning
    - Let Benning walk for nothing, re-sign Kassian

    Once you've picked, get back to me then explain how it's worse asset management than Chiarelli proper. I'm of the mindset of not keeping either player AND optimizing how much value I can get back for both of them. Neither is worth a 2nd Round Pick on their own, and statistically, another 2nd Round Pick is more valuable on draft day than both a 3rd and 4th Round Pick. Ignore the name coming back, it's strictly a salary play to bury in the minors and guarantee the return of that 2nd Round Pick. There is no obligation to re-sign Ceci nor play him at the AHL level, and both Benning and Kassian are replaceable assets.


    Why cant we sign benning and Kassian, is that on your list. Ceci blows and I aint trading for him PERIOD
    Nov 2, 2019 at 1:53
    #19
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: Copenhagen
    Why cant we sign benning and Kassian, is that on your list. Ceci blows and I aint trading for him PERIOD


    Why would you? With Bear having shown he's NHL-capable, Larsson still being a roster player, and Bouchard ready to debut next season, what need is there for Benning? What need is there for Kassian if whatever money he will cost could be used in part to acquire a legitimate top-6 RW. There are better, cheaper PK options for the 4th line than what Kassian brings.

    I know Ceci blows, and he's horrendously overpaid. You acquire him to get another premium draft asset, and let him rot in the minors. I genuinely don't understand why you don't comprehend this. The Oilers aren't contending this year, and the prospect pool is still relatively shallow beyond the big name prospects. Why not make a move that doesn't hurt the Oilers' chances up front AND acquire another draft asset?
    Nov 2, 2019 at 2:50
    #20
    Joined: May 2019
    Posts: 2,201
    Likes: 702
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Why would you? With Bear having shown he's NHL-capable, Larsson still being a roster player, and Bouchard ready to debut next season, what need is there for Benning? What need is there for Kassian if whatever money he will cost could be used in part to acquire a legitimate top-6 RW. There are better, cheaper PK options for the 4th line than what Kassian brings.

    I know Ceci blows, and he's horrendously overpaid. You acquire him to get another premium draft asset, and let him rot in the minors. I genuinely don't understand why you don't comprehend this. The Oilers aren't contending this year, and the prospect pool is still relatively shallow beyond the big name prospects. Why not make a move that doesn't hurt the Oilers' chances up front AND acquire another draft asset?


    Nope No Nada, NHL teams can not have to many D, Larsson is gone in my books, hopefully Russel too, Kassian is what Tampa, Calgary and Leafs need in the playoffs and with that I am keeping him. Ceci is a free agent after this year and can go to the KHL
    Nov 2, 2019 at 2:53
    #21
    Joined: Mar 2017
    Posts: 6,638
    Likes: 1,482
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    - Benning and TVR are just about equal, with Benning producing just a smidge more but with TVR being much better defensively. Considering TVR also went with a 7th Round Pick in exchange for said 2nd Round Pick, I'm fine splitting hairs and saying all the differences equate to Benning at about a late 2nd Round Pick or Early 3rd Round Pick
    - Using draftsite (https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2012) as a basis for a re-draft, Benning's name coincidentally doesn't show up either. It's probably a bit out of date, and there are names in the bottom of the 2nd Round that simply didn't make it. Adds a bit of credence to Benning being a late 2nd / early 3rd in an omniscient re-draft.
    - Colin Miller is better offensively and defensively than Matt Benning, so I genuinely don't have a clue as to how you feel a 5th Round Pick bridges that gap. If anything that cements Benning in the 3rd Round Pick territory given what we know above.
    - This means nothing in the context of Benning's value as-is

    You also have to consider the market as it is right now: teams typically hold onto picks a lot tighter than they used to, ESPECIALLY anything within the top-100. What has Benning done as a bottom-paring defender to warrant paying mid-pairing prices for? Which team has the luxury and the need in order to pull the trigger on a trade like that?

    If packaging him with Kassian gets me that coveted top-62 pick and all I really have to do in return is bury the back-half of Ceci's deal, then I'd take that.


    You're assumptions about Benning are incorrect, but I don't have time to educate you right now. Maybe next week I'll find a few minutes...
    Nov 2, 2019 at 4:12
    #22
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: Copenhagen
    Nope No Nada, NHL teams can not have to many D, Larsson is gone in my books, hopefully Russel too, Kassian is what Tampa, Calgary and Leafs need in the playoffs and with that I am keeping him. Ceci is a free agent after this year and can go to the KHL


    "Teams cannot have too many D" "Larsson is gone in my books". Alrighty then .

    Kassian.... has value, and you won't trade him? By god that's worse asset management than ol' Peter Chiarelli!

    Quoting: CD282
    You're assumptions about Benning are incorrect, but I don't have time to educate you right now. Maybe next week I'll find a few minutes...


    What education do I need? I look at the numbers, and they speak for themselves. I watch the games, and his play speaks for himself. I'm not some homer of a Benning detractor, I just see the writing on the wall: his time here is pretty much up and he's not good enough to fetch that kind of return on his own.
    Nov 2, 2019 at 8:17
    #23
    Joined: May 2019
    Posts: 2,201
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    Edited Nov 2, 2019 at 8:26
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    "Teams cannot have too many D" "Larsson is gone in my books". Alrighty then .

    Kassian.... has value, and you won't trade him? By god that's worse asset management than ol' Peter Chiarelli!



    What education do I need? I look at the numbers, and they speak for themselves. I watch the games, and his play speaks for himself. I'm not some homer of a Benning detractor, I just see the writing on the wall: his time here is pretty much up and he's not good enough to fetch that kind of return on his own.


    Benning for 2million, I will accept over Manning, larsson and russel at 10 million, Bouchard/Jones will be ready next year. Nurse gets a raise. So Nurse/Bear Klefbomb/Persson Bouchard/Jones and Benning extra man who will play up and down the lineup do to Injury! Do you even watch the Oilers @BeterChiarelli Connor and Leon have value and I will not trade him, I know I Know bad asset management as well and I will not trade them either! I am such a bad pretend manager!
    Nov 2, 2019 at 8:43
    #24
    Thread Starter
    Hey Beter
    Joined: Oct 2017
    Posts: 1,994
    Likes: 552
    Quoting: Copenhagen
    Benning for 2million, I will accept over Manning, larsson and russel at 10 million, Bouchard/Jones will be ready next year. Nurse gets a raise. So Nurse/Bear Klefbomb/Persson Bouchard/Jones and Benning extra man who will play up and down the lineup do to Injury! Do you even watch the Oilers @BeterChiarelli Connor and Leon have value and I will not trade him, I know I Know bad asset management as well and I will not trade them either! I am such a bad pretend manager!


    Lagesson would be a cheaper and arguably better #7
    Nov 4, 2019 at 9:55
    #25
    Joined: Mar 2017
    Posts: 6,638
    Likes: 1,482
    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    - Benning and TVR are just about equal, with Benning producing just a smidge more but with TVR being much better defensively. Considering TVR also went with a 7th Round Pick in exchange for said 2nd Round Pick, I'm fine splitting hairs and saying all the differences equate to Benning at about a late 2nd Round Pick or Early 3rd Round Pick
    - Colin Miller is better offensively and defensively than Matt Benning, so I genuinely don't have a clue as to how you feel a 5th Round Pick bridges that gap. If anything that cements Benning in the 3rd Round Pick territory given what we know above.


    All stats are 5v5, date range from 2017-18 to today (2+ years)

    Individual Production with Context
    Benning: 0.86 points/60 on teams that averaged 2.80 goals per game
    TVR: 0.79 points/60 on teams that averaged 2.90 goals per game
    Miller: 0.78 points/60 on teams that averaged 3.12 goals per game

    So Matt Benning is in fact better offensively than either of the other 2, even though he played on teams that generated less offense. Miller's total points were higher because he got a lot of PP in Vegas, but at 5v5 he scored the least of these 3 players even though he played on the highest scoring team.

    On-Ice Scoring Rates For and Against

    Benning: 2.75 GF/60 - 2.27 GA/60 = +0.48 on teams that averaged -0.39 goal differential per game
    Miller: 2.38 GF/60 - 2.40 GA/60 = -0.02 on teams that averaged +0.37 goal differential per game
    TVR: 2.38 GF/60 - 2.43 GA/60 = -0.05 on teams that averaged +0.02 goal differential per game

    On-Ice GF%

    Benning: 54.84%
    Miller: 49.75%
    TVR: 49.47%

    All of these numbers indicate that (a) Benning is superior to the other two players offensively, and (b) Benning is superior to the other two players defensively - despite playing on worse teams than Miller and TVR played on. That's over a 2+ year sample size, which is not insignificant.

    Then when we look at competition levels (vis puckiq.com) we see that Miller is by far the most sheltered of the three, seeing elite opponents less often than the others.

    TVR: 26.1
    Benning: 24.1
    Miller: 21.8

    Keep this in mind when we look at Goals-Above-Replacement Rates. I should mention that GAR isn't available for 2019-20 yet, so these numbers are for 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons only. Also GAR takes into account PP, PK and penalty differential, so it's not a 5v5 number like the rest of the stats above.

    Benning: 0.468 GAR/60
    Miller: 0.432 GAR/60
    TVR: 0.401 GAR/60

    So Miller has the best team, the lowest level of competition and yet STILL has worse numbers both offensively and defensively than Benning, and even when including all game-states and penalty differential he has less impact per 60. TVR's scoring and On-Ice GF impact is nearly identical to Millers at 5v5, but his defensive numbers (compared to his team) and tougher comp make him slightly more valuable than Miller at 5v5. Miller is likely more valuable player than TVR just due to PP ability, but his impact on the game as a whole trails that of Matthew Benning.

    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    - Using draftsite (https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2012) as a basis for a re-draft, Benning's name coincidentally doesn't show up either. It's probably a bit out of date, and there are names in the bottom of the 2nd Round that simply didn't make it. Adds a bit of credence to Benning being a late 2nd / early 3rd in an omniscient re-draft.


    Way out of date. Just looking at point totals (which handicaps defenders unfairly) and Benning is 43rd.

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20122013&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&draftYear=2012&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists

    There are 4 goalies that would be drafted in the 1st round in a re-draft too: Andersen, Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck and Murray. Still that leaves Benning in the mid-round level, and that's using just scoring and ignoring the fact that he's one of the top players in his draft at goal differential.

    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    - This means nothing in the context of Benning's value as-is

    You also have to consider the market as it is right now: teams typically hold onto picks a lot tighter than they used to, ESPECIALLY anything within the top-100. What has Benning done as a bottom-paring defender to warrant paying mid-pairing prices for? Which team has the luxury and the need in order to pull the trigger on a trade like that?


    The fact is that picks have about their lowest value leading up to the deadline, and their highest value leading up to the draft. And what value does a 2nd round pick have anyhow? A 2nd round pick has a 25% chance of having a career like Benning has had so far, and as Benning continues to play that percentage drops. Since a 3rd round pick has a 12% chance (and dropping) of duplicating Benning's career, no way do I take that return so eagerly.

    Also, Benning is more than a "bottom-paring (sp) defender", he can and has played top-4 with sparkling results. Here's his stats from 2016-17 to 2018-19 while playing top-4:

    I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

    TOI: 1250:19
    CF%: 52.79
    FF%: 53.00
    SF%: 53.17
    GF%: 55.65

    xGF%: 53.71
    SCF%: 52.75
    SCGF%: 56.99
    HDCF%: 52.69
    HDGF%: 56.72

    Sh%: 9.51
    Sv%: 91.75
    PDO: 1.013

    Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

    With McDavid

    TOI: 420:30
    CF%: 55.19
    FF%: 56.65
    SF%: 56.14
    GF%: 62.96

    xGF%: 56.10
    SCF%: 55.27
    HDCF%: 55.10
    HDGF%: 59.38

    Sh%: 14.05
    Sv%: 90.73
    PDO: 1.048

    Without McDavid:

    TOI: 829:47
    CF%: 51.39
    FF%: 50.88
    SF%: 51.49
    GF%: 49.18

    xGF%: 52.06
    SCF%: 50.97
    HDCF%: 50.80
    HDGF%: 54.29

    Sh%: 8.20
    Sv%: 94.67
    PDO: 1.029

    The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

    And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

    The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including (in order) Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

    Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is an everyday top-pairing guy. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the Oilers top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

    Benning: 51.45 GF% (49.18 while in the top-4 only)
    Nurse: 44.51
    Russell: 43.87
    Larsson: 43.68
    Klefbom: 40.27
    Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

    Benning gets better results than all of the other Oilers top-6 with McDavid off the ice.

    Check that, Benning gets better results than all of the Oilers top-6 with McDavid ON the ice, too. His GF% is a hair behind Nurse’s, but all his shot-based metrics are better.

    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    If packaging him with Kassian gets me that coveted top-62 pick and all I really have to do in return is bury the back-half of Ceci's deal, then I'd take that.


    This is just silly. I've demonstrated Benning's value above, and Kassian is showing some chemistry with our superstars and is nearing Maroon-like scoring numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 20 goals / 40 points this year without even getting any PP time. That would put him in the range of what Josh Anderson (20 / 34), Mark Scheifele (20 / 43), Ryan O'Reilly (18 / 43) and (18 / 35) scored in 82 games last year, to name just a few. Trading him AT ALL is a stupid idea unless you're getting a decent return. I'm not arguing that Kassian has similar value to those players, but if he's producing like them then there's zero chance I trade him for a pittance. That's just terrible asset / roster management, just like your namesake.
    BeterChiarelli liked this.
     
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