Quoting: BeterChiarelli
- Benning and TVR are just about equal, with Benning producing just a smidge more but with TVR being much better defensively. Considering TVR also went with a 7th Round Pick in exchange for said 2nd Round Pick, I'm fine splitting hairs and saying all the differences equate to Benning at about a late 2nd Round Pick or Early 3rd Round Pick
- Colin Miller is better offensively and defensively than Matt Benning, so I genuinely don't have a clue as to how you feel a 5th Round Pick bridges that gap. If anything that cements Benning in the 3rd Round Pick territory given what we know above.
All stats are 5v5, date range from 2017-18 to today (2+ years)
Individual Production with Context
Benning:
0.86 points/60 on teams that averaged
2.80 goals per game
TVR:
0.79 points/60 on teams that averaged
2.90 goals per game
Miller:
0.78 points/60 on teams that averaged
3.12 goals per game
So Matt Benning is in fact better offensively than either of the other 2, even though he played on teams that generated less offense. Miller's total points were higher because he got a lot of PP in Vegas, but at 5v5 he scored the least of these 3 players even though he played on the highest scoring team.
On-Ice Scoring Rates For and Against
Benning: 2.75 GF/60 - 2.27 GA/60 =
+0.48 on teams that averaged
-0.39 goal differential per game
Miller: 2.38 GF/60 - 2.40 GA/60 = -0.02 on teams that averaged
+0.37 goal differential per game
TVR: 2.38 GF/60 - 2.43 GA/60 =
-0.05 on teams that averaged
+0.02 goal differential per game
On-Ice GF%
Benning: 54.84%
Miller: 49.75%
TVR: 49.47%
All of these numbers indicate that (a) Benning is superior to the other two players offensively, and (b) Benning is superior to the other two players defensively - despite playing on worse teams than Miller and TVR played on. That's over a 2+ year sample size, which is not insignificant.
Then when we look at
competition levels (vis puckiq.com) we see that Miller is by far the most sheltered of the three, seeing elite opponents less often than the others.
TVR: 26.1
Benning: 24.1
Miller: 21.8
Keep this in mind when we look at
Goals-Above-Replacement Rates. I should mention that GAR isn't available for 2019-20 yet, so these numbers are for 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons only. Also GAR takes into account PP, PK and penalty differential, so it's not a 5v5 number like the rest of the stats above.
Benning: 0.468 GAR/60
Miller: 0.432 GAR/60
TVR: 0.401 GAR/60
So Miller has the best team, the lowest level of competition and yet STILL has worse numbers both offensively and defensively than Benning, and even when including all game-states and penalty differential he has less impact per 60. TVR's scoring and On-Ice GF impact is nearly identical to Millers at 5v5, but his defensive numbers (compared to his team) and tougher comp make him slightly more valuable than Miller at 5v5. Miller is likely more valuable player than TVR just due to PP ability, but his impact on the game as a whole trails that of Matthew Benning.
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
- Using draftsite (
https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2012) as a basis for a re-draft, Benning's name coincidentally doesn't show up either. It's probably a bit out of date, and there are names in the bottom of the 2nd Round that simply didn't make it. Adds a bit of credence to Benning being a late 2nd / early 3rd in an omniscient re-draft.
Way out of date. Just looking at point totals (which handicaps defenders unfairly) and Benning is 43rd.
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20122013&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&draftYear=2012&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists
There are 4 goalies that would be drafted in the 1st round in a re-draft too: Andersen, Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck and Murray. Still that leaves Benning in the mid-round level, and that's using just scoring and ignoring the fact that he's one of the top players in his draft at goal differential.
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
- This means nothing in the context of Benning's value as-is
You also have to consider the market as it is right now: teams typically hold onto picks a lot tighter than they used to, ESPECIALLY anything within the top-100. What has Benning done as a bottom-paring defender to warrant paying mid-pairing prices for? Which team has the luxury and the need in order to pull the trigger on a trade like that?
The fact is that picks have about their lowest value leading up to the deadline, and their highest value leading up to the draft. And what value does a 2nd round pick have anyhow? A 2nd round pick has a 25% chance of having a career like Benning has had so far, and as Benning continues to play that percentage drops. Since a 3rd round pick has a 12% chance (and dropping) of duplicating Benning's career, no way do I take that return so eagerly.
Also, Benning is more than a "bottom-paring (sp) defender", he can and has played top-4 with sparkling results. Here's his stats from 2016-17 to 2018-19 while playing top-4:
I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:
TOI: 1250:19
CF%: 52.79
FF%: 53.00
SF%: 53.17
GF%: 55.65
xGF%: 53.71
SCF%: 52.75
SCGF%: 56.99
HDCF%: 52.69
HDGF%: 56.72
Sh%: 9.51
Sv%: 91.75
PDO: 1.013
Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:
With McDavid
TOI: 420:30
CF%: 55.19
FF%: 56.65
SF%: 56.14
GF%: 62.96
xGF%: 56.10
SCF%: 55.27
HDCF%: 55.10
HDGF%: 59.38
Sh%: 14.05
Sv%: 90.73
PDO: 1.048
Without McDavid:
TOI: 829:47
CF%: 51.39
FF%: 50.88
SF%: 51.49
GF%: 49.18
xGF%: 52.06
SCF%: 50.97
HDCF%: 50.80
HDGF%: 54.29
Sh%: 8.20
Sv%: 94.67
PDO: 1.029
The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.
And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.
The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including (in order) Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.
Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is an everyday top-pairing guy. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the Oilers top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:
Benning: 51.45 GF% (49.18 while in the top-4 only)
Nurse: 44.51
Russell: 43.87
Larsson: 43.68
Klefbom: 40.27
Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)
Benning gets better results than all of the other Oilers top-6 with McDavid off the ice.
Check that, Benning gets better results than all of the Oilers top-6 with McDavid ON the ice, too. His GF% is a hair behind Nurse’s, but all his shot-based metrics are better.
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
If packaging him with Kassian gets me that coveted top-62 pick and all I really have to do in return is bury the back-half of Ceci's deal, then I'd take that.
This is just silly. I've demonstrated Benning's value above, and Kassian is showing some chemistry with our superstars and is nearing Maroon-like scoring numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 20 goals / 40 points this year without even getting any PP time. That would put him in the range of what Josh Anderson (20 / 34), Mark Scheifele (20 / 43), Ryan O'Reilly (18 / 43) and (18 / 35) scored in 82 games last year, to name just a few. Trading him AT ALL is a stupid idea unless you're getting a decent return. I'm not arguing that Kassian has similar value to those players, but if he's producing like them then there's zero chance I trade him for a pittance. That's just terrible asset / roster management, just like your namesake.