COL isn’t giving a 1st for Kapanen, one forty point season doesn’t fetch you a 1st. Maybe a 2nd and a 3rd(w/conditions that could make it a 2nd).

seems close to fair value for kapanen. not sure that's who the avs want to target though and i'm not sure the leafs would want to trade with the avs.

kappy stays TOR needs him

especially if thats the return would rather wait for the trade deadline next season so we can get a 1st

Sure, but then he stay in Toronto. The only way he leaves for picks is if it is a first. More likely he gets a defence man.

Kapanen easily gets a 1st, imo.

Hard no from oilers. We aren't taking a cap dump.

Not in a year with a flat cap and expansion draft. This offseason will be a buyers market and 1st's (and other ED exempt assets) will be more valuable than usual.

2nd + conditional 3rd (rising to 2nd if conditions are met) seems like a very fair trade.

The guy is a top 6 fwd making $3.2m for the next two seasons with an RFA expiry. That's easily worth a 1st or at least two guaranteed 2nd's (no condition). Everybody is going to lose somebody in the ED regardless, if you get a better player to use a protection slot on, then awesome. We also have no idea if the cap will be flat. I think that's likely, but for all we know, they might raise it slightly and have it fixed at that number for a couple years.

This is going to be a very cheap year for UFA's, especially middle 6 and bottom 6 forwards, which will push the price in trades down. Why would anyone trade a 1st when they can get a comparable forward in UFA or in a cheaper trade? Virtually every team will have middle 6 forwards for sale so it's a simple game of supply and demand.

From Colorado's perspective, if we're trading a 1st it will be in a package for a legit star player, at minimum someone like Rakell (eg. 1st + Timmins).

I understand the Colorado perspective with their 1st. It's quite like the Leafs perspective regarding Kapanen - they aren't going to trade him (imo) unless they are sure they're getting their bang for their buck.

As for why someone would trade a 1st (or 2 2nds), it's basically what I mentioned before - He's a 24 year old top 6 fwd who's on a good value deal money wise and remains under team control through his prime. You can't get that in UFA and any trade where you get a similar player is going to cost about the same value.

I understand what you are getting at with the flooded market, but I don't see that affecting the higher caliber player trade market. Most teams will have certain guys that they want to trade out because of the situation, and I think that's where you'll see the vast majority of the impact.

I like Kapanen and would like him on the Avs team. However, he's only broken 20 goals once and is basically a 40 to max 45 point forward (and that's with ice time together with elite C's a lot of the time). If Kapanen is a top 6 fwd then guys like Compher and Donskoi are as well. These types of guys are ok 2nd liners but the 3rd line is where you want them if you're a contender.

40-45 points is what he is hitting now, getting 3rd line minutes, playing PK, and very little PP opportunity. The vast majority of his production comes at 5v5, so if he was given more ice time at ES and maybe a decent opportunity on the PP (i.e playing a top 6 role), I see him in the 50-60 point range. The production of Compher and Donskoi does support that they are top 6 guys (it's borderline, but they're in there). So imagine they were younger, slightly better/cheaper, and under team control for longer. You'd probably expect a good return for them.

Fair points. I do think Kapanen could possibly get 50+ as you say, but he's not a guy that should be playing in the top 6 of a contender. The role he's in now as a 3rd liner and great PKer is exactly the role any other contender would want to keep him in. Just like how Colorado keeps Compher on the 3rd line, and how we're going to be looking for a top 6 forward to bump Donskoi down even though he was pacing 50+ points prior to his injury.

I completely support and agree with your point that Kapanen is best suited as 3rd line guy if you're a contender, but all 30 teams need 2nd line players and he certainly could fill that role for a lot of teams right now and if they eventually get to a point where they can bump him down, that's great for them - but to get him a team is going to have to pay for what he is.

What he is right now though is, in your words:

"40-45 points is what he is hitting now, getting 3rd line minutes, playing PK, and very little PP opportunity"...

So if teams are paying for "what he is [right now]" then they won't be paying for a 50-60 point forward.

His production as of right now (3rd line minutes, PK, very little PP opportunity, yadda yadda) puts him solidly in the territory of top 6 winger even with those hindrances. So what you are paying for is a top 6 winger who is young, on a fair deal for two more years (and is still an RFA after that), and you might see a production increase as well.

^ Fixed that for you

No, his production at this point in time puts him firmly among top 6 wingers. Even if we assume he sees no production increase (which is unlikely), his stats still place him as a top 6 RW.

His current production doesn't put him in the top 6 on a contender.

That's irrelevant.

It does when the market of teams that would pay picks for a middle 6 forward is basically the list of contenders. Rebuilding and middling teams won't pay a 1st for him because their 1st will be too high.

Okay... That doesn't change Kapanen's status as a top 6 winger. If a contender trades for him and he plays 3rd line, then credit to them they have a 2nd line guy playing on the 3rd, must be a good offense. If they want a guy who is for sure going to play on their 2nd line (as in someone significantly better than Kapanen) then they can go ahead and get that guy at a greater price.

Then TOR can keep him. 40pts one time in your career having the opportunity to play with Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Nylander doesn’t exactly scream I’m worth a 1st rd pick. Burakovsky didn’t net the Caps a 1st and Kapanen won’t either. Teams are going to be very reluctant to not only hand out big/long term contracts or trade 1st rd picks with all of the cap uncertainty. Imo that is.

Literally what I said.