HUGE TRADE WITH CAROLINA

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Created by: MatthewsDynasty

Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 15, 2020

Published: Jun. 15, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Mikheyev, Ilya		1	$1,350,000
Gauthier, Frédérik		1	$700,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Spezza, Jason	1	$700,000
Toffoli, Tyler	1	$6,500,000
Lehner, Robin	4	$6,400,000

Trades

TOR

CAR

Andersen, Frederik ($2,500,000 retained)
Liljegren, Timothy
Marner, Mitchell
2020 4th round pick (VGK)
2021 2nd round pick (TOR)

TOR

2021 4th round pick (ANA)

Additional Details:

Any team

ANA

Martinook, Jordan

TOR

2020 4th round pick (NSH)
2021 3rd round pick (ANA)

Additional Details:

Any team

ANA

Reimer, James

TOR

2020 3rd round pick (COL)
2021 3rd round pick (FLA)

Additional Details:

Any team

FLA

Johnsson, Andreas

TOR

2021 2nd round pick (FLA)

FLA

Dermott, Travis [RFA Rights]

TOR

Bonino, Nick ($700,000 retained)

NSH

Kerfoot, Alexander
2020 4th round pick (NSH)
2021 3rd round pick (ANA)
2021 4th round pick (ANA)

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
Frederik Andersen: $2,500,000 (50%)

Buried

Pierre Engvall: $175,000 ($1,250,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$81,468,450	$0	$2,650,000	$31,550

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Svechnikov, Andrei $925,000$925,000 ($2,650,000$3M) LW, RW UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 4	Toffoli, Tyler $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 4
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 4
Mikheyev, Ilya $1,350,000$1,350,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Bonino, Nick $3,400,000$3,400,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 2
Robertson, Nicholas $821,667$821,667 LW, RW RFA - 4	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Barabanov, Alexander $925,000$925,000 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Pesce, Brett $4,025,000$4,025,000 RD UFA - 4	Lehner, Robin $6,400,000$6,400,000 G UFA - 5
Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD NMC UFA - 4	Holl, Justin $2,000,000$2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Campbell, Jack $1,650,000$1,650,000 G UFA - 2
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 2	Lehtonen, Mikko $925,000$925,000 LD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1
Gauthier, Frédérik $700,000$700,000 C UFA - 1

Jun. 15, 2020 at 2:50 p.m.

#26

firezfurx

Dubas isnt a genius

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 2,824

Likes: 681

Quoting: Caniac2000

Faulk's xGA took a major dive when moving from Pesce to Parayko. I'm concerned you're at team stats, not individual. I highly recommend looking at Hockey-viz for the isolated ice impact or Hockeyviz for RAPM, which are both far better indicators than the percentiles.

Here's a comparison for Faulk's stats 2018/2019-2019/2020

Offensive stats are irrelevant for our discussion but have a look at the defensive stats

Quoting: BeastModeUnknown

Are you positive on that????

fv3HzlyJCsrq6ys7MmTJyqVyt3dPSAgICIiIiYmpmnTptaW8Z1AtuaMIIglwW28CIIgCIIgCIK8SaxatSouLo4QkpGR0bdvX2uLg.png?width=1112&height=916

fv3HzlyJCsrq6ys7MmTJyqVyt3dPSAgICIiIiYmpmnTptaW8Z1AtuaMIIglwW28CIIgCIIgCIK8SaxatSouLo4QkpGR0bdvX2uLg.png?width=1112&height=916

Here's Faulks 2018-19 season vs 2019-20:
https://public.tableau.com/shared/KGQMH3GC2?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y

Ignore the offensive stats but have a look at the defensive stats

Jun. 15, 2020 at 2:51 p.m.

#27

Shylo_Moxii

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 9,352

Likes: 2,738

Quoting: firezfurx

Here's a comparison for Faulk's stats 2018/2019-2019/2020

Offensive stats are irrelevant for our discussion but have a look at the defensive stats

Here's Faulks 2018-19 season vs 2019-20:
https://public.tableau.com/shared/KGQMH3GC2?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y

Ignore the offensive stats but have a look at the defensive stats

Boi what did I tell you about using SKATR. I told you use Evolving Hockey and HockeyViz

Jun. 15, 2020 at 2:53 p.m.

#28

firezfurx

Dubas isnt a genius

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 2,824

Likes: 681

Quoting: BeastModeUnknown

Boi what did I tell you about using SKATR. I told you use Evolving Hockey and HockeyViz

I'm not using actual SKATR scores just the defensive stats

Jun. 15, 2020 at 2:54 p.m.

#29

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,537

Likes: 5,032

Quoting: firezfurx

You understand, just looking at how it's caculated, this heavily favours offence right? It's weighing GAR too highly to use as a reliable reflection of defensive stats. Hockeyviz or Evolving Hockey are MUCH better for isolated impacts

Shylo_Moxii liked this.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 2:55 p.m.

#30

Shylo_Moxii

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 9,352

Likes: 2,738

Quoting: firezfurx

and may I just say Faulk plays with Pietrangelo, Dunn, and Bouwmeester more than he does with Parayko.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 2:56 p.m.

#31

firezfurx

Dubas isnt a genius

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 2,824

Likes: 681

Quoting: Caniac2000

Dont look at the actual SKATR score just look at the defensive stats

Jun. 15, 2020 at 2:57 p.m.

#32

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,537

Likes: 5,032

Quoting: firezfurx

Dont look at the actual SKATR score just look at the defensive stats

You can't look at the defensive stats without looking at how they're calculated. It's favouring offence far too much to give a reliable defensive reading.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 2:59 p.m.

#33

firezfurx

Dubas isnt a genius

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 2,824

Likes: 681

Quoting: Caniac2000

You can't look at the defensive stats without looking at how they're calculated. It's favouring offence far too much to give a reliable defensive reading.

How so? Exp Ga, shots against, and the others are isolated stats that aren't effected by offense.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 3:01 p.m.

#34

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,537

Likes: 5,032

Quoting: firezfurx

How so? Exp Ga, shots against, and the others are isolated stats that aren't effected by offense.

The percentiles are weighed to favour offence. It's why I prefer the bare stats

Jun. 15, 2020 at 3:42 p.m.

#35

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banned

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 24,997

Likes: 7,855

Quoting: Caniac2000

Not my fault you don't know Pesce's value. He's worth what he's worth. Don't like it? We'll keep him

You are literally the only person who thinks he's an elite player. Even his advanced stats like possession, shot share, and expected goals are either good or below average. You have the biggest bias for your favourite team on this site. Worse than any Leaf fan.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 3:44 p.m.

#36

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banned

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 24,997

Likes: 7,855

Quoting: firezfurx

He's in the 7th percentile for xGa TM REL. That is worse then Ceci, worse then Sandin, and comparable to Liljegren. I get his playstyle doesn't look great from an analytics perspective but 7th percentile is ****ing atrocious.

He's a good player but he's a product of the system there. Without playing in the high volume shots for and clog the middle to prevent shots against system that he plays in Carolina, I don't think he's anything more than a #4 defenceman. He can play with a top guy for sure, but he's never been nor will ever be a top defenceman. He's a secondary piece. So to think he's worth an actual top player like Nylander and then some is just ****ing insane.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 4:18 p.m.

#37

phillyjabroni

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,392

Likes: 2,885

Quoting: BeastModeUnknown

1 year of Analytics > 4 Years of Analytics?

You are looking at a percentile of 1 season, and it's been a rough season. It's a very small sample size you have to look at the 4 year sample to even get a good amount a sample to compare.

Lx8Rk4cGBycvKiRYsiIiKUL8g64SNzltyAAAAxlhlZSWyczxoYmNj9zZcDAgYqKivr6hs3buh0upCQkJiYmNTU1MzMzODgYEX8YG.png?width=1112&height=916

Lx8Rk4cGBycvKiRYsiIiKUL8g64SNzltyAAAAxlhlZSWyczxoYmNj9zZcDAgYqKivr6hs3buh0upCQkJiYmNTU1MzMzODgYEX8YG.png?width=1112&height=916

RAMP charts might be one of the worst developments for the analytics community. I used to be super into these kinds of things and then realized they aren't indicative of skillset. They are cool to look at to check in and see how a player's underlying numbers are doing, but I wouldn't put any weight into these for debating a player's value or trade worth.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 4:50 p.m.

#38

Saskleaf

Go leafs go

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 13,241

Likes: 9,191

Quoting: Caniac2000

We'll keep him then. This is horrible for Carolina!

Keep him then.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 5:56 p.m.

#39

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,537

Likes: 5,032

Quoting: Saskleaf

Keep him then.

We will then!

Saskleaf liked this.

Jun. 15, 2020 at 5:58 p.m.

#40

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 19,537

Likes: 5,032

Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

No, even the leafs analytics guy has pointed out his source is biased. LOL. You're just not getting the memo

Jun. 15, 2020 at 7:00 p.m.

#41

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banned

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 24,997

Likes: 7,855

Quoting: Caniac2000

No, even the leafs analytics guy has pointed out his source is biased. LOL. You're just not getting the memo

You're such a good

Caniac2000 liked this.

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