There's zero chance TB retains on anyone or takes back a player making similar salary. They are in a pretty tight squeeze

And considering that Tampa bay give up the two best player in that deal it look even worst

I'd take Risto over Palat any day as well as Mittelstadt's upside. Even without the retain, would there be any merit to this trade as a Tampa fan? Recent top 10 pick, solid second pair defenseman, and a recent 31st overall pick. Don't think the value is too far off...

Tampa declines as Serg is better than Ristolainen and Palat is better than Mittlestadt. Additionally, Tampa won't be taking back a big contract and retain on Palat in the same deal. Tampa isn't really interested in Mittlestadt, as they already have several players at his level ready for a bottom 6 role. He would also have to be re-signed to a new deal and Tampa doesn't need to pay him 1.x to 2 million for that role. Tampa loses the trade and isn't one they'd make at this time.

Preds decline. That's not enough for Bonino.

That can be interpreted as Cozens (top 10 pick), Jokiharju (solid second pair defenseman) and Mattias Samuelsson (recent 32nd overall pick)...

Even without the retain, why wouldn't they consider this move from a cap space perspective. A young guy with upside in Mitts and essentially 6 million in cap space for Cirelli

Tampa doesn't value Ristolainen very highly, Serg is better and will sign a bridge. Mittlestadt is not viewed as a valuable piece either by most Tampa fans as he's at best a 3rd liner going forward(being generous). Tampa isn't really interested at all in moving Serg, but if they were looking to move him to Buffalo, Cozens or Jokiharju would be a good starting base, not Risto or Mittlestadt.

Tampa isn't accepting that garbage offer, Sergachev isn't going anywhere and fat chance of Palat waiving his full NTC for Buffalo.