@Isles777 @Jamiepo

Disregard lines and trade values/signing term. Am I missing anything?

Seems like a really bad trade for the Islanders.

NVM - see your post now.

Aho gets 725 k at most, komarov + johnston buried in the AHL

Having a hard time believing MTL is going to offersheet barzal 1.5 mill more than Aho (who is the better center) . 9.5 x 5 at most, and that’s being generous.

What habs fans want to happen and what Bergevin will actually do are two different things

Ok done.

They can also roll with a 22 man roster

MB thought he was being smart. People seem to miss this concept about the thing. He figured he could take advantage of intel he had got about Dundon being a cash poor and not ready to dole out a big payload on a player. That's the only reason it was that number. MB got greedy. Not only did he want to OS a player but he wanted to get him for a steal. Had that offer been 10M, it may have worked.

Mb has shown the willingness to use one. Now that he saw how insignificant an 8.4M OS is on a player easily worth that, he will have to realize you got to overpay to make it work. He's reaching his last legs in Mtl. he needs to make the team better and quick and with UFA's not wanting to come to MTL he's running out of options.

MB sending another OS is probably at the highest odds of any GM since the mid 2000's...... I wouldn't put it past him.

Fine done. Anything else?

Price has already fallen off a cliff - petry and Weber were both good this year, but they are at the age where they can seriously decline at any time, and that’s likely sooner than later. Giving up 2 1st rd picks that could be high lottery picks is very risky.

For Bergevin to actually send an OS, it has to get to that point.

It’s more wishful thinking than anything. I get it, whenever teams have elite RFA, fan bases want to see other teams players get an OS so they can get put into further cap hell, but it’s still highly unlikely to happen.

I think they trade Boychuk if they can to get Pulock signed, he’s our #1 dman. If there’s no trade out there for him, I think they trade Bailey, who they won’t have to give up assets to trade and play Wahlstrom/Bellows 2nd line

Nope, but this is a pretty unrealistic thread. Like I said , most likely barzal will sign a bridge deal, just like point, tkachuk, mcavoy , werenski, and boeser did last offseason.

Contrary to popular belief, Price wasn't even that bad this year. Simply not 10.5M worthy but not bad. He doesn;t need to be 10.5M good anymore but the team needs to be better. Barzal makes the team better.
Weber hasn't given any indication that he will fall off a cliff any time soon. Petry is a UFA so you are predicting atleast 2 years into the future...... he can be replaced with younger talent if need be. Habs have tons of prospects coming including probably a good one in this years draft. Tons of cap space and plenty of players others teams would love to have. I'm not worried in the slightest.

How many lottery pick within the past decade yielded a player of Barzal's calibre? What are the odds of Montreal a team that just added Barzal to the roster is now gonna be worse then they were before, which even then was only 4th worst at best in one season recently? Even if we take the Habs last 3 top 10 draft picks and I'd still do that trade. Galchenyuk+KK+Sergachev for Barzal. That's IF those lottery picks hit and IF they yield a stud player. Even if it yielded a stud player, so what? Habs got one also so worse comes to worse they paid for one earlier then had they just drafted one. Except thre are no IFS with Barzal. He is a good player right now. There's no guarantee with those other picks.

This isn't wishful thinking. Barzal has locked heads with coaching style. Knows management will push a cap friendly deal on him despite him being easily the Isles best player by a long shot. He knows other teams want him and will pay handsomely for him. They are in a bit of a crunch already......etc etc etc

This isn't just a random OS scenario. This has legs and multiple people in the media have quoted it as a possibility already. Outside the TB players, Barzal is probably the most likely other player from another team.

Boychuck? Not a single team is making that trade without it costing the Isles an arm and a leg. Bailey makes sense though. That is precisely what I was getting at, Isles will have to make more moves for it all to work. That's also less than the cost to keep Pulock probably so there goes some of the extra cap space that was saved in the above scenario. Will need to make another move.

Point was in TB, the dream team scenario. He took less only because it was TB and everybody took less. He was offered more from Montreal in OS reportedly but he didn't want to sign it. Tkachuk there wasn't much talk of so not much we can go on his contract here but he signed 7*3, Barzal being a center and producing more than Tkachuk had will get more. Mccavoy/Werenski/Boeser were all not eligible for OS if im not mistaken.......

The absolute most conservative estimates should have Barzal at 7.5M*3 BUT that is if no one OS's him and that he doesn't hold out on the Isles which if recent RFA negotiation has shown is likely. Neg will probably go into camp. Plenty of time for teams to inquire about it during that time.

But what is unrealistic? Everything I did is not far off from your estimations and the only thing I changed was Barzal OS at 10M. This is all very realistic. You've also assumed Leddy to team X for 0 cap coming back (Unlikely), Pulock traded is unlikely, Toews signing a bridge is unlikely as he's already 27 years old. Your previous AGM had him at 4.65M for 5 years. I think if anything you may be leaning on unrealistic expectations.

We just hope Leo goes to LTIR which apparently might happen because of his previous neck injuries. Another guy the isles could move is Hickey, who might cost a bit to move or Clutter, who also might cost a bit to move. In conclusion, Lou ran this team into the ground

Komarov may very well be LTIR but as of right now he's pushing to come back.

https://www.rotoworld.com/hockey/nhl/player/25478/leo-komarov

So you got to plan for IF he is. Can't bank on him not and then get burned.

Hickey is a cap dump. If he had only 1 year left fine but two years left makes things a lot more tricky. It may not cost a 1ts to move him but it will cost something important. Doubt Isles fans will be "happy" with the offers. Clutterbuck has to be bought out IMO. But the problem is it doesn't save a whole lot of cap. 1.6M. It'll help but its not enough by itself.

Anyways, you hit the nail on the head originally which was what I was trying to get at. The Isles will need move some big names to make it work if they match a Barzal OS. Which very well could happen.

Monteal's team defense was pretty good this season, and price was well below average. He has been below replacement level for 2 of the last 3 seasons - this is not my opinion, it's a fact.

Weber will be 35 next month, there is evidence that elite defenseman can decline even after a great season. Recent examples are drew doughty and vlasic. Both were borderline elite in 17-18 and the following season they were both below replacement level.

Just because Friedman speculated that barzal would prefer to play in a more offensive minded system doesn't mean it's true. It's just speculation. If you want to run with that, then go right ahead.

Oh don't give me WAR. They are far from unanimously agreed upon.

I watched the Habs games. Anyone who thinks the Habs defense wasn't at the very least partially to blame for the teams defensive woes wasn't watching the games. Once again, not saying Price was 10.5M good but this narrative that he is replaceable with a backup goalie is out too lunch. He so many times kept the Habs in games they had no business being in. Just not enough to warrant having a "good" season. That's the problem with carrying a 10.5M cap.

Doughty and Vlasic also happen to be on two of the worst teams in the league.......... Take Doughty and place him on Boston's roster and he'll have elite numbers again. Or at the very least numbers you'd think of a top pairing dman. The team you play for makes a HUGE difference. Vlasic was never in the realm of Doughty and Weber. His regression is hyper obvious because A) he was never an offensive Dman to begin with and when you get the big bucks you need to bring it at both ends of the ice so he could never live up to that contract regardless and B) the contract they gave made no sense even at the time. It was a legacy contract for a player that was not deserving and that's on SJ. Anyways picking these two guys is cherry picking without looking at other comparables. Chara, Keith, Giordano, Suter, Burns, etc Plenty of other examples of guys still good into their late 30's and Weber isn't even 35 yet. Again, they don't need to be 8M good. Just still good.

Regardless I don't think anyone would disagree they have declined. The point is how they decline and Weber for example has slowed down for sure as anyone would but his strength/shot/leadership hasn't skipped a beat. He doesn't need to be All-Star worthy just good enough and there doesn't seem to be any indication he can't be that at the very least. By year 22-23 so much can change so what are we worried about? Deal with that when you get there. Barzal's OS will have already been 50% completed by then. (10*5 years)

Just because Freidman speculated about it? .........And is Freidman the type to stir up rumours without any basis to it like Eklund does???? Man, If we can't take Friedge at his word, there are few others in the hockey world we can. Im not the only one "running" with it.

It could, but the only thing allowing me to slee at night is they Lou extended Pageau fully knowing what he had coming up this offseason. It makes me think he must have some sort of plan in place to get everyone signed

Price has been good on the penalty kill, that's it - and its not just WAR, there are many advanced stats that support price being a below average G, like "GSA/60" and "EV SV% vs expected". It doesn't matter if you watched the games, ill trust the underlying numbers over eye test, especially from a fan of the team.

Mainstream media will have you believe doughty's numbers are bad because of his supporting cast, but the isolates show that he was just awful in every aspect of the game besides the PP. Interesting because Matt roy and Sean walker had great underlying numbers.

Vlasic was definitely an elite defenseman. https://twitter.com/Brodycampbell30/status/1287090008101453827?s=20

Friedman tweeted in his 31 thoughts that panarin to the isles was pretty much a done deal. He reported earlier this season sorokin was trying to force a trade which was proven to be false - also said that sorokin wanted to go somewhere where there is a clearer path to be the starter, when its known that the isles signed varlamov to be a mentor to sorokin to groom him to be the franchise G. Nothing that's he said regarding the isles has come to fruition, so no I really don't put much thought into what he says regarding the isles.

He spoke about barzal on the spitten chiclets podcast, and if I remember correctly, he said that he thinks it's possible an offer sheet for barzal is coming because its so hard to come by good players nowadays. He was speculating to create buzz and get people talking, like he always does.

Even if he knew he could Barzal signed for 7M and Pulock signed for 5M, this team is incredibly tight against the cap. Can't fathom he predicted everything would be that perfect. He also signed that Pageau contract before the pandemic and the stale salary cap prediction. Impossible to for him to plan for any of this as it is right now. Either way its a tough situation. One that was worse than I had originally thought.

It is a tough situation, I tried to work it out myself on another post, and I @ed you, sorry for all the notifications 😂

Analytics is FARRRRR from a perfect science. Anyone who thinks otherwise are just as bad as the people who don't put ANY stock into analytics at all. Trusting the underlying numbers completely is just as bad as being completely reliant on the eye test. As with all things moderation is the key here. I've seen the numbers, I would never say Price has been elite or even great but this below average non sense is just over the top. Until the analytics are 100% fool proof, you cannot take them 100% as fact. They are new perspectives someone who ONLY uses the eye test would miss.

Vlasic was elite DEFENSIVELY only. Not one single person on here would take peak Vlasic over Weber, Doughty or any of the other Norris calibre dmen etc. Not. one. single. person.

All those points about Friedman were never denied either...... Panarin was in talks with NYI up untill the last bit. Things can change quickly in negotiations, all it takes is a better offer which NYR gave. Although I checked just now but couldn't find anything, can you link to Friedman saying it was a done deal?

Same thing for Sorokin:

"A couple of my Russian contacts reached out after last week’s note about Islanders goaltending prospect Ilya Sorokin — who is considering an extension in the KHL. They think he’s trying to force a trade from New York to someplace with a clearer path to start. There would be interest — he’s very talented. We’ll see where this goes."

Friedman is not Lou or Sorokin or Panarin. He can only go on the information he's given. You talk about not getting anything right? What about the countless things he has got right? NO one is saying Friedman 100% said Barzal OS is happening by Montreal...... but you are the one saying it definitely won't happen..... Based on numerous media ppl, I don't think you can say that with any validity.

Im not saying it definitely will happen but Im not sure anyone can claim it won't happen either. Habs need a #1 center. MB has already given an OS for a similar C. Habs have cap space. Isles are running out of cap space. Barzal has been mentioned in the media (Friedman). This isn't a pipe dream. There is life to this rumor. Whether it happens or not is to be seen.

Plus we haven't even got to the fact that what if MB OS's Barzal for the exact offer as Aho? Sure the Isles will probably match but they'll be that much closer to oblivion and having to trade away half the team make it work. It doesn't have to be 10M. Just that 10M is a lot closer to getting the Isles to not match.