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BStinson

Member Since
May 21, 2020
Favourite Team
Detroit Red Wings
2nd Favourite Team
Vegas Golden Knights
Forum Posts
2464
Posts per Day
9.9
Forum Threads
12
Forum: Armchair-GM4 hours ago
Thread: New take on next year with the info we have now
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Silkysmooth42</b></div><div>Unfortunately you are missing a few really important pieces of the trade, so I will help you rn...

Full Trade:
Backes (25% RETAINED) + 1st rounder + AXEL ANDERSSON for Kase (I HIGHLIGHTED the pieces you were missing)

At 25% retained, Backes' contract was worth less than a 1st to take on (based on numerous reports) Additionally, Axel Anderson is a top 4 potential RHD prospect (that is still 20 years old!).
So we can confidently say the ultimate cost of Kase was Axel Anderson and some of the 1st rounder (if we call a 1st rounder the equivalent of a 2nd and a 3rd based on recent pick for pick trades, and Backes was worth a little more than the 2nd)

SO Kase was worth a 3rd(ish) AND AXEL ANDERSSON (worth about a 2nd as well!!! - based on recent trades that are similar)

So Kase for a 3rd is MORE THAN SUFFICIENT





Just figured id tag u guys to considering I put all that time in lmao</div></div>
That’s a generous projection for Andersson and I didn’t mention those as the quote from the trade description implies Boston paid a first solely for Kase. I say it’s a generous projection as there have been multiple studies of junior hockey that give a corrresponding success chance at the NHL level based on draft year point totals and given his Q stats +2D it’s not super high. I agreed that his rights were worth a third rounder but disagreed with the language of the initial quote. Like I initially said if you want to say his rights are worth a second or third rounder fine, but his accusation cost is diluted with the negative cost of Backes. What sources do you have for the asking price to ship Backes off?

Quick Search

https://985thesportshub.com/2019/06/25/bruins-have-to-find-way-to-get-out-from-under-the-david-backes-contract/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/1042678/2019/06/22/impossible-to-move-the-patrick-marleau-trade-sets-a-sky-high-price-for-swapping-david-backes/%3famp
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 5:33 pm
Thread: Offseason Moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ryminister_27</b></div><div>&amp; everyone has said from the time of the trade that Leafs got more than what they should have for Kapanen. And the difference between Kapanen and Bertuzzi is THAT great of a difference to justify anymore than what Toronto got for Kapanen. But saying that a 1st and a top prospect in the league (Sandin) isn't enough is absurd. Leafs got a mid round 1st and a C+ prospect. Where's the difference that Bertuzzi is worth a 1st and a A prospect? If you think that's what Bertuzzi is worth, you're HIGHLY, HIGHLY overvaluing him.</div></div>
I put my value in what actual GMs do when I perceive a player’s value instead of online armchair GMs so your first point is moot. So that is a valid comparable trade. Outside of Kapanen’s skating, Bertuzzi is better at just about everything else. When did I say a first + Sandin wouldn’t be enough for Bertuzzi? I was the one that proposed it so you’re just trying to put words in my mouth because your argument isn’t logical/rationale. You also completely skipped over my initial reply because there isn’t a logical counter for icing an all rookie team.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 1:00 pm
Thread: Offseason Moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ryminister_27</b></div><div>A. That's a pretty good offer for a rebuilding team, might need a bit more added but not much.

B. Leafs don't do it. Anderson is an ideal player to play up and down the line up. Compared to Zach Hyman, Connor Brown, and Blake Coleman. A solid 2way player that battles for pucks and plays physical. &amp; he's basically making league minimum. They'd have no interest in moving a guy like that for Bertuzzi who would really see 3rd line minutes on the team (Hyman and Robertson on LW fit the roles better), and they'd likely lose him in the expansion draft. Plus there's Mikheyev who's cheaper and plays the role better anyways. For depth and contract reasons, Toronto wouldn't have interest in any Bertuzzi deal.</div></div>
A. No, that’s not a good deal for Detroit or any rebuilder. What is with this fascination of playing only rookies on these sites? You need veterans to teach the youngsters and it’s not like Bertuzzi is a rental.

B. Anderson hasn’t played in the NHL so we don’t know what he can do at the highest level and isn’t that level of prospect to say he’s off limits. Mikheyev hasn’t shown he’s better yet but yeah he’s cheaper. So I get the argument you like your LWs so let’s stop seeing these Leaf ACGMs trading for Bert unless we something like Sandin + 1st.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 12:40 pm
Thread: PLD book it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I don't see many teams Ponying up the assets that Jackets fans and Jarmo initially wanted. Think about it this way. GM's are hockey fans too but their job is to get the best deal possible for their own teams. They use whatever leverage is available to them to lower the market value of a player being sought after. The Dubios situation is a prime example. MB reportedly called Jarmo early on and Jarmo said Nick Suzuki. That reportedly infuriated MB to the point where he hung up the phone. I am sure a couple days later MB called back and said look here is what I am willing to give up can we work around that (let's say the package was something like Danault + Caufield + 1st for arguments sake). This time Jarmo says no and ends the call. Now if things in Columbus had been good over the last week MB probably calls Jarmo back and says ok what about Kotkaniemi + Byron + Struble + 1st and maybe Jarmo accepts. But the way things did unfold Jarmo probably calls MB and says is that Danault trade still available and MB likely says no now I will only go Danault + Armia + 1st either the deal is done or Jarmo counters with something else revolving around Danault instead of KK or Suzuki. After the last week Jarmo is not going to want this drama hanging around for another month or more. He wants to make it someone else's problem and get a decent return at this point.</div></div>
How do you know MB was infuriated when he hung up the phone over the initial ask (Suzuki)? I see a ton of comments where fans make assumptions or think because some click bait site posts they have “inside information” that’s it’s factual. Yes there is leverage to move PLD from a Columbus perspective but that doesn’t mean they need to move him only to Montreal. Other teams will/have called based on reporters tweets and that CLB is mulling over their options and have received multiple “good” offers. We don’t know what CLB FO sees as good or even if those reporters are correct as if I’m in the CLB FO I’m going to try and drum up some more demand for a higher asking price. All I know is there were reports from Athletic writers that Detroit was asking about availability and price but didn’t comment on the ask. I know he says all the right things but his actions on the ice say another thing and I believe he did this in juniors for the Screaming Eagles so I’d really question if he’s a Yzerman kind of guy but I don’t follow Bergevin nearly as close to say what he values in someone’s character.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 2:10 am
Thread: PLD book it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>On the Montreal side I fail to see the point in paying the asking price for a player that is looking more and more like a locker room cancer. Why exactly does Montreal trade premium assets for PLD at this point? They don't PLD and Tortz are having what seems like daily conflicts at this point. Montreal are all playing for eachother, you don't disrupt that kind of symmetry with a player who could totally destroy everything you have built in the locker room.</div></div>
That’s true, which is why it’s weird so many PLD to Montreal ACGMs. It’s also a small sample size for Montreal but it’s nice you guys are clicking. If Montreal doesn’t want to pony up premiere assets for him then someone else probably will. It still stands that Drouin isn’t a great fit nor do I think very highly of his complete game, Poehling isn’t anything special, and a first round pick is a first round pick.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 11:13 pm
Thread: Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SomeonesOffended</b></div><div>1 year deal, good price, good player, on a losing team that would maybe want picks and prospects but I guess not, but these pieces I’m throwing out aren’t nothing amirov was last drafts 1st for the leafs and Yegor was a 2nd and is ripping it up in the KHL right now and this years 1st on top of that</div></div>
I’m not sure I’d ask Yegor is “ripping up” the KHL. He has 28 pts in 47 games and oddly he was PPG the first dozen or so games so he’s massively cooled off. This isn’t a 18-20 year old doing this either, he’s 24.

The Wings needs are high end center or LHD prospects. So that leaves really Sandin whom wasn’t included and we are pretty set on the wing even if you subtract Bert as we’d have Mantha, Zadina, Raymond, Berggren, Fabbri, etc. as either young roster players to decent prospects. First round picks are nice but where does that pick land?

So I’d counter (only talking Bert here) for Sandin + 1st
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 6:03 pm
Thread: PLD Trade - Rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>redw1n9s</b></div><div>"team fans"...Hakan is just another euro scout now. Every team scouts in Europe, I don't think Hakan knows anything they don't. Difference back then when Dats and Z were drafted was Hakan was the only one looking (Wings last 10 or so years of draft picks proves that pretty easily).

Point is, the types of pieces I expect to be included in the eventual trade for PLD put that offer to shame. Only way we get him is if we give up at least two of our main pieces or next year's 1st, which then makes no sense for us.</div></div>
Let’s just ignore the portion about how I said FO personnel probably have him in high regard. Let’s face it we’re both speculating but at least mine has an appeal to authority of a professional scout with a proven track record. So given that Wallinder and Berggren aren’t that far off in terms of value I don’t see how your offer puts OP’s to shame. What do you see Berggren’s realistic upside? I see him as a mid 6 offensive winger.