Forums/Armchair-GM

Win Play in series lose in 1st round

Created by: Campabee
Initial Creation Date: Aug 7, 2020
Published: Aug 7 at 3:52
Team: 2020-21 Montreal Canadiens
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Caufield, Cole3$925,000
Norlinder, Mattias3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Domi, Max7$6,000,000
Evans, Jake3$1,125,000
Juulsen, Noah3$1,125,000
Mete, Victor3$2,100,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Hall, Taylor7$8,500,000
Elliott, Brian2$1,500,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Lafreniere, Alexis3$925,000
Trades
MTL
  1. 2020 1st round pick (NYR)
1st OVA
NYR
  1. Drouin, Jonathan
  2. Caufield, Cole
  3. Norlinder, Mattias
  4. 2020 1st round pick (MTL)
Additional Details:
16th OVA
Domi can be swapped with Drouin depending on needs

Rangers are a place holder
Buried
  • Karl Alzner: $3,550,000 ($4,625,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
NYR
MTL
CHI
STL
MTL
WSH
MTL
ANA
WPG
MTL
FLA
MTL
CHI
OTT
2021
MTL
MTL
MTL
CHI
MTL
STL
VGK
MTL
OTT
PHI
MTL
2022
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$78,147,976$0$3,137,500$3,352,024
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Hall, Taylor
$8,500,000
LW
UFA
MTL
Suzuki, Nick
$863,333
C, RW
RFA - 2
MTL
Gallagher, Brendan
$3,750,000
RW
UFA - 1
Lafreniere, Alexis
$925,000
MTL
Kotkaniemi, Jesperi
$925,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
MTL
Tatar, Tomas
$4,800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
MTL
Byron, Paul
$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
MTL
Domi, Max
$6,000,000
C, LW
RFA
MTL
Evans, Jake
$1,125,000
C, RW
RFA
MTL
Lehkonen, Artturi
$2,400,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
MTL
Danault, Phillip
$3,083,333
C
UFA - 1
MTL
Armia, Joel
$2,600,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
MTL
Chiarot, Ben
$3,500,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
MTL
Weber, Shea
$7,857,143
RD
UFA - 6
MTL
Price, Carey
$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 6
MTL
Romanov, Alexander
$894,167
LD
RFA - 2
MTL
Petry, Jeff
$5,500,000
RD
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
Elliott, Brian
$1,500,000
G
UFA
MTL
Mete, Victor
$2,100,000
LD/RD
RFA
MTL
Juulsen, Noah
$1,125,000
RD
RFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
MTL
Weal, Jordan
$1,400,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 1
MTL
Kulak, Brett
$1,850,000
LD
UFA - 2

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Aug 7 at 3:53
#1
Team Strome Stays
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 917
Likes: 174
I'd imagine they could get better offers for 1OA.
Aug 7 at 3:58
#2
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,803
Likes: 524
Quoting: Josh
I'd imagine they could get better offers for 1OA.


Really who is going to offer basically 4-5 1st round picks? Not many other teams could make an offer like that. Maybe Ottawa, Colorado or NJ but that's basically it. And Colorado's 2020 1st is going to be 24th or worse. Ottawa will want to keep 1 picks in the top 5 maybe they move 5th OVA +++ but that still isn't much more than my offer here. And Jersey isn't moving any of their top players like Hughes or Heirscher.
Aug 7 at 3:58
#3
NHL Trade Inspector
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 4,646
Likes: 1,530
Quoting: Josh
I'd imagine they could get better offers for 1OA.


yep. That may get them the 5OA but 1OA nope
Aug 7 at 4:04
#4
Hey Beter
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,861
Likes: 904
So, in terms of NHLe, I don't know if I'd look to trade Caufield and everything else in that package just for Lafreniere.

There's no effective comparable for the USNTP (I used the NCAA translation factor given that the national team does play against NCAA teams) and Caufield's NHLe in his draft year ranges from 10 points (just the USHL conversion) to 22 (USNTDP w/ NCAA conversion), with an average of 16 if you split the difference. Lafreniere's is 24.

Even if Caufield's D+1 NHLe has dropped to 14 points with the past season, I don't know how to justify trading Drouin (who can be used to acquire a proper top-pairing LHD), a mid-first round pick in a deep year, a prospect, and Caufield just to acquire a guy with a French last name. There's no value here for Montreal.
Aug 7 at 4:04
#5
Bandwagon fairweathe
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,244
Likes: 911
With expansion coming, the package is going to need some exempt players over filling the other teams protection spots. Suzuki probably has to be in the package and or caufield and not sure about any exempt dman to be included. Hype alone probably has this package up to 2/3 past firsts and possibly some future protected firsts.
Aug 7 at 4:05
#6
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,803
Likes: 524
I forgot to add to the proposal a 2021 unprotected 1st could be added to make it.

Drouin/Domi + 2020 1st (16th OVA) + Caufield + Norlinder + Possible 2021 1st (which makes it basically 4-5 1st round picks)

See the original thread below.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1823647
Aug 7 at 4:09
#7
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,803
Likes: 524
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
So, in terms of NHLe, I don't know if I'd look to trade Caufield and everything else in that package just for Lafreniere.

There's no effective comparable for the USNTP (I used the NCAA translation factor given that the national team does play against NCAA teams) and Caufield's NHLe in his draft year ranges from 10 points (just the USHL conversion) to 22 (USNTDP w/ NCAA conversion), with an average of 16 if you split the difference. Lafreniere's is 24.

Even if Caufield's D+1 NHLe has dropped to 14 points with the past season, I don't know how to justify trading Drouin (who can be used to acquire a proper top-pairing LHD), a mid-first round pick in a deep year, a prospect, and Caufield just to acquire a guy with a French last name. There's no value here for Montreal.


Its not about a French player for me, I could care less but when you have the opportunity to add a franchise changing player to an already very good roster I think you have to make a solid pitch.

Also Romanov could very well be our future #1 LHD and if not he will be a top notch 2nd pairing.
Aug 7 at 4:11
#8
Olof for Vezina
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 10,082
Likes: 2,741
If any team gets 1OA they aren't trading it. Period.
Aug 7 at 4:22
#9
Hey Beter
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,861
Likes: 904
Quoting: Campabee
Its not about a French player for me, I could care less but when you have the opportunity to add a franchise changing player to an already very good roster I think you have to make a solid pitch.


Call me crazy, but I don't think Lafreniere is anywhere near the tier of player that McDavid or Crosby were when they were drafted. Giving the kid the franchise tag now seems incredibly premature. For a quick reference, McDavid had an NHLe nearly 1.5x greater than Lafreniere had this season. Crosby's NHLe was 30. Matthews had an NHLe of 49 coming out of the NLA. If these are the kinds of prospects worthy of being labelled as generational, franchise-defining players before they've even seen NHL ice. Jack Eichel - who's lumped in this group - has a comparable NHLe of 25, but I think this would be the natural cutoff between what is and isn't "franchise-defining", especially given that Eichel did it as a center instead of as a scoring winger.

Again, using NHLe as an analytical tool, Lafreniere compares very closely to Taylor Hall. I won't argue that Lafreniere is the undisputed number one pick in this draft, but I wouldn't claim Lafreniere to be a franchise-defining player. If Lafreniere should end up in Montreal - by all metrics he's a superstar - but that era of Canadiens will be remembered as a collective, not as the Lafreniere Canadiens.

If we're going to be a stickler for labels, nobody is trading Lafreniere if he should be considered franchise-defining.

Regardless of labels, there's more value in the individual pieces for Montreal than burning them to move up to select Lafreniere.
 
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