Penguins would need to add when sending Maatta? I think it would be pretty damn close. Maatta's injury concerns are nearly all freak accident type injuries, and they have basically the same NHL experience. If anything the Jet's need a LHD DFD more than a RHD OFD thus making it a solid move for both squads.

The pens top players (Crosby,Letang, Malkin, Hornquist etc) have all ahd better number away from Maatta than with him over the last 3 seasons. Trouba over the last 3 seasons have made the Jets best players better when he plays with them. So yes I think Trouba is a step higher than Maatta.

if you were able to get Provorov straight up for Trouba, take that deal and run. Provo is going to be so good

Do people not get Trouba is so good. He is a top pair almost elite dmen at 22 years old. Why the hate? Is it because he doesn't score a pile? If provorov becames noticable better than Trouba he will be a top 10 dmen in the NHL maybe top 5.

I think you are overvaluing Trouba, although not necessarily all the trades above reflect your feeling of elite! Trouba even in Winnipeg is rated as the 3rd pairing right handed defenceman, and maybe not top 4 even if he moves to the left side. (At this point of his career) ! This is reflected in Winnipeg's reluctance to give him the contract he wants. I think you would have a hard time making a case for Winnipeg to have a top 10 defence in the entire league and thus, his value falls even further! Will likely get what you propose above when asking for a 3-4 guy in return, along with "a little more", (secondary prospect, or draft choice, although not likely 1st round. ie: Gardiner/Leipsic or Linberg, Krug/Lauzon or Hargrove

Winnipeg doesn't deserve Trouba. They have no clue the caliber of player they have.

Winnipeg under uses him and under values him. All his numbers scream borderline Elite top pair. I don't get caught up in what coaches do. Coaches (lots of them) make weird and goofy lineup and usage moves. Also Krug and Gardiner are both easily top pairing dmen.

If Trouba was that good the Peg would say **** Buff and move forward with Trouba getting 25 min a night on the top pairing.

Buff is a top 10 Dmen in the NHL last year. The problem is how the jets value Myers.

I actually think the values are actually SPOT ON, I don't think Winnipeg will be able to get better left handed defenseman (or equal) that would include Brodie, Lindholm, Rielly, OEL but they'll have to downgrade and get some other pieces

No hate. Trouba is good but he isnt projected as high as a ceiling as Provo. I think that guy is the real deal and will be an elite level Dman very quickly in this league. I think its a fair trade straight up

Only one that jumps off the page at being way off is OEL. He is a total stud. Trouba is a top pairing guy. The add would be pretty significant IMO.

Also guys like Severson are no where near most of the players in this thread. Would be a very huge add from NJ.

Overall respectable post.

I'd take Rielly over Trouba.

I think if people started using website like Corsica looking at these dmens numbers, usage and the WOWY (with or without you) charts we all could be better at evaluating defensemen. Most people on here are pretty good with the forward evaluation but on defense opinions on the same players range greatly.

I don't care what any advanced stat site says. OEL is an elite dman and is worth more than Trouba. Severson is not a top pairing guy. These 3 guys in the same breath is just wrong IMO.

Advanced stats are a tool. Results matter too. If you rely soley on advance stats then you are wrong. There can be many other factors than the fact that the player is on the ice or not on the ice. Do the other players play "differently" while a superstar is on the ice? Tentative? Aggressive? Not all of these impacts are factored into advanced stats enough, nor can they ever be effectively.

So advance stats are just results. That's it its just the results of games. So stats actually do a better job of saying how a player impacts their teammates, how teammates impact the player. If results are the thing that matter why bring up things like who teammates play with the other player on the ice. If they perform better with the player than without isn't that the result that matters?

Also go look at OEL at Trouba's age... They are very very similar in terms of on ice impact. So yes OEL is better than Trouba right now. He will have a better contract but Trouba at 22 is better than OEL at 22.

Sorry but Trouba's ceiling is a Seabrook, a physical amazing number 2 defenseman, but OEL could be a Karlsson with much greater offensive abilities, they're quite far apart

Edit: I meant much greater offensive abilities over Trouba not Karlsson

Trouba is actually a better at impacting shot generating than OEL right now. And shot generating leads to offense. OEL is a much better shot repressor. Also Seabrooke is bad defensively but very good offensively. Even watching Seabrooke you can tell he gets beat one on one a lot. Trouba is also better than Seabrook already.

The overall sentiment is pretty close, I would agree with most of these. Sure a couple might be pushing it a bit. Obviously everyone is going to be pissed off at their teams offer. Frankly whether we like it or not, a lot of this is subjective. I was pissed at first that Sergachev was used but then realized, there is no basis for that. Its a fair estimation. Obviously the "need to add" is very ambiguous. Need to add a 1st round pick or a Torrey Mitchell? I think not being specific enough is what makes people overreact a bit.

As much as JuniorGM doesn't want to admit, these advanced stats are guidelines and should NOT be the sole basis for one's conclusion. Players have up/down years, they could be good players with sh*tty attitudes, nagging injuries, off ice situations, etc, etc. A player's value does not fit exactly into a statistic.

Moderation is needed when looking at advanced stats. I truly believe there are factors not being accounted for and looking at them with 100% absolution, is wrong. I remain by my words, balance between advanced stats and hockey knowledge/eye test is where true evaluation is at. Looking at only one, on either side of the spectrum, is where you'll be disappointed with your results.



So you saying that if you switched scenarios for Trouba at 22 and OEL at 22, Trouba playing for 13-14 Arizona and OEL playing for 15-16 Winnipeg, Trouba would be the clear favorite? How so? Because that is 100% speculation, there is no way of making that connection and would love to see any advanced stat prove that. That's a rhetorical question BTW. Its impossible. There is no such data to support "what if scenario and alternate realities".

I really want to agree with a lot of what you say JuniorGM because many times its actually valid because the data is there for anyone to see but bending of truth according to your own opinion and saying its advanced stats is what annoys me the most and makes the advancement/progress of using advanced stats, stagnate.

Looks like OEL beats him at age 22. 24 pts in 48 games vs 21 in 81.

You are trying to project Trouba. We already know what OEL and that is a legit annual Norris candidate. Trouba is not there yet and it's fair to say he very likely will never be. He most definitely has a good chance at going from a good top pairing guy to a very good top pairing guy.

But OEL > Trouba for possession. Shot generation does lead to offense in general terms. But there are many examples of players who have high possession and shot generating grades and yet struggle to score year after year. That matters too.

What do you think all projections are. Using past information to make an informed guess. When going prospect lists how do you think they come up with that stuff? They look at age performance. So what you are saying is that you can't compare any players becuase they don't play for the same team under the exact situation. That seems unlikely. Using advance stats you can totally see how 22 year old OEL impacted his team and how 22 year old Trouba impacted his team and you can compare those sets of impacts.

Projections are rarely correct. Very hard to do and no one has mastered it. They are used as 1 of many ways to evaluate.

Actually there are a lot of really smart people doing really good and accurate projections. Tons of bloggers are getting better and better at it. Tons of models have done really great work and have been fairly accurate. So here is why I use advanced stats. I watch the ducks every game my eye test and advance stats line up pretty well. I only watch other teams 10-15 times a year. My eye test havent seen enough of the player I need another tool to help.

2 players impacting their respective teams yes but you absolutely cannot compare ones impact against anothers impact with the same team and then declaring one better than the other as a result. Your just speculating. There's no way of saying who'd do better if the roles were reversed?

I can totally agree that at age 22 both OEL and Trouba played like top 2 calibre dman at the very least.