I think it will depend on gaudreau and monahan bouncing back. If they’re both ppg I think this team is going far.

You're really sleeping on that Montreal line. In terms of a line, it's the best line here.

Also Petry and Weber don't play together

Each team's top-9 by P/GP last year:

Edmonton: 7.69 total
Draisaitl: 1.55 P/GP
McDavid: 1.52
Yamamoto: 0.96
Nugent-Hopkins: 0.94
Kassian: 0.58
Neal: 0.56
Kahun: 0.55
Ennis: 0.53
Turris: 0.50

Toronto: 6.72 total
Matthews: 1.14 P/GP
Marner: 1.14
Tavares: 0.95
Nylander: 0.87
Hyman: 0.73
Mikheyev: 0.59
Thornton: 0.44 *
Kerfoot: 0.43
Spezza: 0.43

Winnipeg: 6.40 total
Connor: 1.03 P/GP
Scheifele: 1.03
Laine: 0.93
Wheeler: 0.92
Ehlers: 0.82
Stastny: 0.54
Roslovic: 0.41
Copp: 0.41
Perreault: 0.31

Vancouver: 6.05 total
Miller: 1.04 P/GP
Pettersson: 0.97
Boeser: 0.79
Horvat: 0.77
Pearson: 0.65
Gaudette: 0.56
Virtanen: 0.52
Sutter: 0.39
Ferland: 0.36

Calgary: 5.60 total
Tkachuk: 0.88 P/GP
Gaudreau: 0.83
Lindholm: 0.77
Monahan: 0.69
Backlund: 0.64
Leivo: 0.53
Mangiapane: 0.47
Ryan: 0.43
Dube: 0.36

Montreal: 5.33 total
Tatar: 0.90 P/GP
Gallagher: 0.73
Danault: 0.66
Tofolli: 0.65
Suzuki: 0.58
Drouin: 0.56
Armia: 0.52
Lehkonen: 0.39
Byron: 0.34

Ottawa: 4.42 total
Dadonov: 0.68
Tkachuk: 0.62
Brown: 0.61
Tierney: 0.52
Batherson: 0.43
Galchenyuk: 0.41
Anisimov: 0.41
White: 0.38
Paul: 0.36

Let me know if I've missed someone. Note that I'm not projecting roles or scoring next year, I'm just looking to see what each player did last year. But based on these numbers I don't see any justification for having Winnipeg and Toronto above Edmonton next year - they aren't even in the same zip code. The rest of the forward list seems about right.

Think about this: if Toronto added another Auston Matthews they STILL wouldn't match the Oilers list! Winnipeg could add another another Scheifele + another Wheeler and they would still fall short of Edmonton! I mean, it's not even close. The games have to be played, however, so you can project however you like - it would be nice to see your rationalization though.

Your goalie ranking is, um, interesting. You have the reigning Vezina winner at third? Here are the seven goalies listed and their Sv% from last season:

Hellebuyck: .922 (58 GP)
Markstrom: .918 (43)
Koskinen: .917 (38)
Andersen: .909 (52)
Price: .909 (58)
Demko: .905 (27)
Murray: .899 (38)

I know you're projecting each tandem, not just the starter, but these guys will be playing the lions share of the games. Does Holtby (.897) and Campbell (.904) really push their respective tandems above Edmonton's - considering both were in the same range as Smith (.902) last year? Does Allan push Montreal above Winnipeg when Price and Hellebuyck will be playing ~70% of the games? How on earth do you have Markstrom + Rittich above Hellebuyck + anyone? I just don't see it.

In terms of team defense, here's where the teams ranked last year:

Winnipeg: 2.83 GA/GP (10th in the league)
Edmonton: 3.03 (15th)
Calgary: 3.06 (17th)
Montreal: 3.10 (19th)
Vancouver: 3.10 (21st)
Toronto: 3.17 (26th)
Ottawa: 3.35 (30th)

It's hard to isolate defense from goaltending, but I'm really struggling to see how Toronto improved so much in the offseason that they now have the 2nd best defense... and Calgary at #1? You do realize that they lost a bunch of defense in the offseason, right? I mean, the very player that Toronto gained that is key to their defensive game (Brodie) was lost by Calgary. If he is all that, how does Calgary now have the #1 defense in the country??

Buddy I love what you've done here. You're a gem!















Everybody else takes notes, it's going to a loooong season. Grab yourself self a 6 pack and watch the boys in blue and orange make your team's look silly

I’d bet on Edmonton missing the playoffs again and wasting another prime year of McDavid’s career over them winning a cup

They didn't miss the playoffs this year. The play ins counted as playoffs. It's not like any other Canadian team with all their firepower and deep deep teams with number 1 goalies are winning the cup either haha every Canadian team has something to prove. Ottawa might take a decade though. Just lucky to be Oilers fan, having the best player in the world and all.

Their bottom-6 is among the best in the league offensively.

Neal: 0.56 P/GP
Ennis: 0.53
Turris: 0.50
Puljujarvi: 0.43 NHLe
Chiasson: 0.37
Archibald: 0.34

Neal, Ennis and Turris rank inside the top 186 forwards in the league (2nd line scoring), so that makes for a pretty decent 3rd line. Puljujarvi, Chiasson and Archibald all rank as 3rd liners. Best bottom-6 in the division, easily.

As for goalies, they're average IMO. If you take their Sv% from last year and say each tandem will split the duties 50/50, it looks like this:

Price .909 + Allen .927 /2 = .918
Markstrom .918 + Rittich .907 /2 = .913
Koskinen .917 + Smith .902 /2 = .910
Hellebuyck .922 + Brossoit .895 = .909
Andersen .909 + Campbell .904 /2 = .907
Demko .905 + Holtby .897 /2 = .901
Murray .899 + Anderson .902 /2 = .901

I'm going to guess the splits end up something like this:

Hellebuyck + Brossoit 80/20 = .917
Markstrom + Rittich 70/30 = .915
Price + Allen 70/30 = .914
Koskinen + Smith 60/40 = .911
Andersen + Campbell 70/30 = .908
Demko + Holtby 50/50 = .901
Murray + Anderson 60/40 = .900

I'd say goaltending isn't a strength for Edmonton, but it isn't a weakness either.