Lets Talk About Spects Baby

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Created by: Claesson4Norris

Team: 2020-21 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 21, 2020

Published: Dec. 22, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Super bored and wanted to make a post about Prospects, as I am wont to do. Figured I change things up and project a range of potential, using point/goal predictions as a metric to get my point across. Obviously there's more to a player than points, but it's an easy way to convey a rough outline of how good a player can be. I'll also be including a write up, so I can expand more on my thoughts in a more nuanced way. If you disagree, By all means let me know what you think.

Disclaimer: Obviously any given prospect on this list could easily flame out, but for the purposes of this exercise we will operate under the assumption that prospects will become at least NHL level players. Otherwise the low end projection would just read (BUST) for every player and that would be lame as hell.

Josh Norris: Starting things off with an easy one, Josh Norris seems a virtual lock to be at very least an effective NHL player. He has NHL Speed, Size and Shot, and combined with his 200ft complete play style, it seems very unlikely that he won't end up as at the very least an effective bottom six contributor. To me it's a matter of whether he becomes a 3rd liner, or a top six C. I think he can reach the Kyle Turris/David Krejci level, where you can be a 1st line C and not totally drown, but is better served as a 2C. I think he ends up being Brady's long term C, whether that's the 1st or 2nd line depends more on Tim Stuetzle's Ceiling.

Drake Batherson: Another high floor player, Batherson might even be more of a "sure thing" than Norris. I think Batherson is pretty clearly an NHL player, and I think as soon as this season will be an impactful one. I think he will be a great 2nd line RW, and has some upside as a legit 1st liner.

Roby Jarventie: Jarventie is probably one of the most intriguing prospects in Ottawa's system. He's got a great raw skillset, with great skating and a wonderful shot, but he also has flaws in his games that could keep him from being an NHL player if his skill doesn't translate into him being a top 6 player. He has a big frame, but is pretty lanky and not great at using his size to create a physical advantage. That's why he is the one player on this list who has a downside as a non NHL player. I think he has really high upside as a scorer, and could actually see him being one of those guys who randomly goes off for massive goal totals in a contract year or something.

Shane Pinto: Pinto is having an absolute MVP level season in NCAA, currently leading all College players in points. The fact that he's also a 6'3 Center who can skate and dominates in the faceoff dots, leads me to believe at worst he will be a 4th line faceoff specialist. I think he has upside as a 2nd liner, though I think he will be more of a 3rd line C who sees time on both special teams.

Ridly Greig: probably the prospect who has the lowest upside here, as well as the smallest gap between upside and downside. I think he's got a high likelihood of being an NHL player, as he plays a game that translates really well to being at least a 4th liner. I don't think he has much top six upside, but I think he has upside as a great pesky 3rd liner.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Pinto, Shane	3	$925,000
Järventie, Roby	3	$925,000
Greig, Ridly	3	$925,000

CREATED	YEARS	CAP HIT
PROSPECT, PROSPECT	1	$700,000
HIGH END, PROJECTION	1	$700,000
LOW END, PROJECTION	1	$700,000
12-18 GOALS, 30-40 POINTS	1	$700,000
20-30 GOALS, 50-60 POINTS	1	$700,000
18-30 GOALS, 50-70 POINTS	1	$700,000
15-22 GOALS, 35-45 POINTS	1	$700,000
European, All Star	1	$700,000
15-35 GOALS, 40-60 POINTS	1	$700,000
20-25 GOALS, 40-50 POINTS	1	$700,000
10-15 GOALS, 25-35 POINTS	1	$700,000
15-20 GOALS, 30-40 POINTS	1	$700,000
10-15 GOALS, 20-30 POINTS	1	$700,000

Buyouts

Bobby Ryan: $3,583,333
Dion Phaneuf: $1,354,167
Thomas Chabot: $2,333,333
Matt Murray: $4,333,333
Evgeni Dadonov: $3,166,667
Marián Gáborík: $2,825,000
Colin White: $1,566,667
Artem Anisimov: $3,550,000
Nikita Zaitsev: $1,166,667
Erik Gudbranson: $2,000,000
Connor Brown: $2,000,000
Chris Tierney: $1,283,333
Anders Nilsson: $1,000,000
Austin Watson: $500,000
Mike Reilly: $500,000
Nicholas Paul: $375,000
Joshua Brown: $600,000
Alex Galchenyuk: $350,000
Brady Tkachuk: $231,250
Christian Wolanin: $66,667
Logan Brown: $169,583
Christian Jaros: $125,000
Rūdolfs Balcers: $122,500

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
18	$81,500,000	$46,739,166	$0	$870,000	$34,760,834

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
PROSPECT, PROSPECT $700,000$700,000	LOW END, PROJECTION $700,000$700,000	HIGH END, PROJECTION $700,000$700,000
Norris, Joshua $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) C UFA - 2	12-18 GOALS, 30-40 POINTS $700,000$700,000	20-30 GOALS, 50-60 POINTS $700,000$700,000
Batherson, Drake $736,666$736,666 ($20,000$20K) RW, LW UFA - 1	15-22 GOALS, 35-45 POINTS $700,000$700,000	18-30 GOALS, 50-70 POINTS $700,000$700,000
Järventie, Roby $925,000$925,000 LW RFA	European, All Star $700,000$700,000
Pinto, Shane $925,000$925,000 C RFA - 3	10-15 GOALS, 25-35 POINTS $700,000$700,000	15-35 GOALS, 40-60 POINTS $700,000$700,000
Greig, Ridly $925,000$925,000 C, LW RFA - 5	10-15 GOALS, 20-30 POINTS $700,000$700,000	20-25 GOALS, 40-50 POINTS $700,000$700,000
		15-20 GOALS, 30-40 POINTS $700,000$700,000

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender

Dec. 22, 2020 at 12:32 a.m.

alex_ouellet

alex_10

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 273

Likes: 19

Very insightful, I completely agree w ur analysis. What do u think if Formenten, Brannstrom, Stuztle and Sandersons potential?

Dec. 22, 2020 at 12:33 a.m.

Jetman

Jetsfan

Joined: Sep. 2017

Posts: 8,055

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Dubas has the specs🤓

Dec. 22, 2020 at 12:56 a.m.

sensibleguy

Serf

Joined: Jun. 2016

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We need a way to like a thread without needing to comment, lol.

I’m going to keep an eye on Roby Jarventie, he might really surprise people

So many borderline NHL D prospects I like, Lajoie, Jaros, Kleven, Tychonick

Dec. 22, 2020 at 12:58 a.m.

pharrow

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I wouldn't get overly hyped on Pinto.
I am high on guys coming out of the NCAA, but ND is stacked. They are kind of an oranges to apples team right now.

I'm also pretty sure Norris is a more sure thing than Batherson.

Dec. 22, 2020 at 1:41 a.m.

Claesson4Norris

Thread Starter

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 17,338

Likes: 12,395

Quoting: alex_ouellet

Very insightful, I completely agree w ur analysis. What do u think if Formenten, Brannstrom, Stuztle and Sandersons potential?

I feel like this post only really works for forwards. For example a Dman like Jake Sanderson is a guy who will provide a tremendous amount of value to the team, though he will probably never put up noteworthy point totals, so measuring his value with points isn't very accurate. So for comparable NHL players if Brannstrom and Sanderson hit their absolute ceilings, I would say Brannstrom is a Torey Krug type, and Sanderson is a Ryan Suter. They obviously might not reach those heights, but in terms of play style and upside those are the comparisons I like.

As far as Formenton, I didn't include him, because I don't think there's much difference between his floor and his ceiling. I think his floor is a 3rd liner Wing who gives 30 something points and 12-15 goals while being a key PK guy, and his ceiling is a really good 3rd line winger like Kapanen, who can potentially give you 15-20+ goals and 40ish points, and can move into the top six in a pinch. I don't think he has upside as an everyday top six guy, but I also doubt he will be limited to a 4th line job given his skillset.

Stuetzle, I legitimately have no read on how high this guy can go. I think his skill is so high, I can't really see him busting. I think his lower end would be similar to fellow 3rd overall pick Jonathan Drouin, as a guy who can give 40-50 points, but is pretty underwhelming given the hype and pedigree. His upside i think is absolutely sky high, and I don't think I'm capable of measuring it objectively. I think he has Hart Trophy upside, even though it's obviously waay to early to be saying stuff like that.

alex_ouellet liked this.

Dec. 22, 2020 at 1:52 a.m.

Claesson4Norris

Thread Starter

Joined: Jan. 2018

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Likes: 12,395

Quoting: sensibleguy

Once upon a time, a website called CapFriendly had a feature where you could rate posts from 1-5 stars. They got rid of it, and I've missed it every day since.

As far as Jarventie, I have a feeling he's going to be a guy who scores goals, and is extremely polarizing. I think he'll be one of those defensively suspect goal scorers who gets criticized for not actually driving results offensively, despite putting up goals and points. I also think he could be one of those good players who scores at a decent rate most of his career, then shoots the lights out in a contract year scoring like 40 goals and gets a huge mistake contract. Sort of like Jeff Skinner a couple years ago.

Alfie11 and sensibleguy liked this.

Dec. 22, 2020 at 2:15 a.m.

Claesson4Norris

Thread Starter

Joined: Jan. 2018

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Quoting: pharrow

I mean UND is obviously stacked, but Pinto is clearly the best player on that team right now, I think that counts for something. I also think he's a pretty unique prospect in the sense that he's had such an accelerated rate of growth, as he only started playing high level organized hockey at like 15. Also as far as being overly hyped, I think I made it clear that I think he will end up being more of a 3C than a 2C, though I think he's shown enough at this point in his development in the USHL, NCAA, and at the World Juniors to suggest there's at least some top six upside.

Can you elaborate on why you think Norris is more of a sure thing than Batherson? I'm probably a bit more tempered in my expectations for Batherson than most of the fanbase (I think he's closer to Reilly Smith than Mark Stone) but I think in terms of what he's shown at the NHL and AHL level, I'd be confident in saying that he already is an NHL player. Norris might not be all that far behind, but I think he has further to go in comparison. I think as a centre, Norris might end up being the more valuable of the two, but as it stands currently, I'd put Batherson closer to being an impactful NHLer, and I'd have him higher in terms of offensive upside as well.

Alfie11 liked this.

Dec. 22, 2020 at 2:33 a.m.

Alfie11

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 9,527

Likes: 8,969

Quoting: Claesson4Norris

Great insight as usual! Not gonna lie, I actually have a similar post in the works, going over ceiling, floor, and a little bit of detail for all U25 Sens. Work’s been hectic the last couple weeks though so I’ve had to put it on hold, hopefully I’ll have it up by next week.

As for this post, I’m inclined to agree with pretty much everything you’ve said. For your point on Jarventie, I think that as long as he’s a good sniper (preferably a consistent 25+ goal type of guy rather than a 40 or 14 goal guy depending on the year lmao) any defensive deficiencies can be worked around. We have several guys who are decent to good defensively that should slot into our top 9 at some point (Tierney, White, Batherson, Norris, Pinto, Greig, etc.) so it shouldn’t be an issue finding linemates to cover for him and let him focus on his strengths, namely putting the puck in the net. I don’t think that should be the make or break factor if he has NHL-calibre offensive intelligence and a great shot, goals are the hardest things to come by after all.

Dec. 22, 2020 at 3:37 a.m.

pharrow

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Quoting: Claesson4Norris

I think Norris is a lock to be a top 4 guy. Winger are a lot harder to see what you are going to get at the NHL level.

As far as ND. I mean it's a lot easier to rack up points on a team that's stacked. I honestly don't think he's the best player in the NCAA. I think he's making the most out of a really good situation. But if he were on a lot of these other teams I don't think you'd be saying these things about him.
That's not to knock him. It's just a recognition of how stacked ND actually is. I think it's pretty clear they are the frozen four favorite if they play this year by a very wide margin. Other teams just don't have that kind of talent and it's hard to match up. Meaning it's kind of like the NHL first round picks in the CHL beating up on the 17 year olds who aren't going anywhere in the CHL.
The points are great, they don't really tell you much though. You have to assess the intangibles to make the judgement on the player and I don't even think he's in the top 3 on ND to be honest.

I will say one thing about ND though. Kiersted is gonna be one chased after player when teams can go after him.
Defense is always in need, he's not overly undersized at 6 foot, and he's got a nice game. I think a lot of teams are wondering why no one drafted him.

Dec. 22, 2020 at 7:06 p.m.

#10

alex_ouellet

alex_10

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 273

Likes: 19

Quoting: Claesson4Norris

ur pretty knowledgable, do u have a hockey insta account? If u don't u should definitely start one

Dec. 22, 2020 at 7:15 p.m.

#11

Claesson4Norris

Thread Starter

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 17,338

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Quoting: alex_ouellet

ur pretty knowledgable, do u have a hockey insta account? If u don't u should definitely start one

That would require effort and stuff though lol

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