Joined: May 2015
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Palhal, do the math. How many free agent mammoth contracts are they going to have to pay to reach the cap if most of the players they take are between 0.5m-2m? How many of the free agents worth giving big bucks to would want to sign with LV? How many of those big name Free agents are going to be actually available? Who exactly do you think LV will be signing? Shattenkirk? Bishop? Almost 100% they wouldn't. So the lesser guys? Patrick Eaves? Brian Gionta? Those guys are worth giving big contracts to?
Most of the players that LV will want to select are going to be "cheaper" contract players. There are a few good players that might be available at the 4-5M range but not many. So what happens when they get to September 1st and they're roster cap is 40M??? They need to be in the mid 50's to be cap compliant. Sign George Parros and Rob Ray to 5M dollar contracts????
So here is what you are saying, sign free agents you actually want to inflated contracts to reach the floor? Right? Those players probably won't be quality players to start off with. They'll be guys like PA Parenteau and Tom Pyatt who will take any job they can get! So you would give those guys 5M but not Plekanec? A true NHL vet who would more then likely would be this teams top line center if they chose him? Nor Matt Read, a guy who has put up decent numbers in a 3rd line role? Who else will they take? Scott Laughton? Another cheap contract to add to the list. Del Zotto? Free agent at the end of this year so they would need to sign him. No guarantee of that either. Eventually they'll have to take some players who are probably overpriced but are still NHL capable players.
Plekanec, Ennis and Reads are overpaid , I get that but they aren't garbage players. They are NHL regulars. We're not talking about David Clarkson here!
You keep throwing "its so easy to sign players to reach the cap" yet most teams can't even get the players they want when they have the money! TML wanted Stamkos. Did they get him? No! Just saying you want something doesn't mean you'll get it. There are 30 other teams vying for those players. MTL Has been trying to get a quality center for who knows how long now. They succeed at that? Nope, they got desperate and traded for Scott effing Gomez!!
Plus we haven't even got to the point of players being traded from now till the expansion draft. Yeah a guy like Jack Johnson may be available now but any smart GM would trade him to a team who is protecting an average dman currently and use it on Johnson instead. That team gets an upgrade on defence for peanuts. CLB gets draft pick. Nor have we mentioned players waiving their NMC's to be exposed but LV wouldn't want those players anyway thus eliminating a player from that team that LV could of chosen.
I think Vegas will be more desperate than you think. They need to not only ice a competitive team but get futures as well and there are a bunch of teams that have very little to offer LV at the expansion draft. MTL being one of them. Beaulieu is the only one of real value that fits the criteria of cheap young and good, that could be available. In this AGM above MTL trades him. After that the pickings are slim. Teams might even incentivize LV to take there somewhat over priced players.
I think you need to do the expansion draft team yourself and only protect the players worth protecting for each team leaving extra unused places if that team could afford to lose a player of less significance and then in addition to protecting the players, cross off the players that actually won't be available as well because they will be moved ahead of being left exposed at the draft. (Fowler would be available but I think we can assume that Anaheim will trade him before the expansion draft to a team that can protect him)
Then you start to see the real picture. A lot of those good players won't be available and most of those good players are the ones that carry bigger cap hits too. McPhee won't wait until the last minute to make sure he has enough cap to reach the floor. He'll do much of it before hand where he has a guarantee. Free agency and the trade market after the expansion draft is no guarantee.
Ultimately no one here knows for sure but that includes both of our opinions.