Edited Mar. 13, 2021 at 9:56 a.m.
I don't think we have to argue about which team would give a mid-1st and an A prospect for Kuznetsov. I agree Guerin was a very consistent player, and has traded away some guys who had some up and down years. I also agree that some team somewhere would trade for Evgeni Kuznetsov in the offseason, after a bunch of contracts expire.
The part I'm questioning is how much cheaper Danault signs than Kuznetsov, given that about eight teams have pencilled him into their middle six "to save money." Could he get just 5M? Sure. He's kind of inconsistent, too. Or could he finish this year strong and get a Kevin Hayes deal, somewhere? Probably could, still. Similar skill-set.
As far as whether public knowledge of a player's struggles with addiction affect trade value, I think Damphousse was the most valuable player in the following trade, when it happened, followed by Fuhr and Anderson. Fuhr's publicly ballyhooed addiction issues neither ruined his trade value nor the rest of his career, as he went on to have at least one 40 win season, and break the record for games started:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-09-20-sp-2608-story.html
"The Edmonton Oilers traded two more of their Stanley Cup-era players, sending goaltender Grant Fuhr and forward Glenn Anderson to the Toronto Maple Leafs in a seven-player deal.
Forward Craig Berube was also traded to the Maple Leafs. In return, the Oilers receive forwards Vincent Damphousse and Scott Thornton, defenseman Luke Richardson and goaltender Peter Ing and undisclosed considerations."
The Edmonton Oilers traded two more of their Stanley Cup-era players, sending goaltender Grant Fuhr and forward Glenn Anderson to the Toronto Maple Leafs in a seven-player deal.
Forward Craig Berube was also traded to the Maple Leafs. In return, the Oilers receive forwards Vincent Damphousse and Scott Thornton, defenseman Luke Richardson and goaltender Peter Ing and undisclosed considerations.
“It’ll be a lot of fun,” Fuhr said, choking back tears “so I’ll be there (Toronto) tomorrow. In a way it’s a relief that it’s done.
“But on the other hand, it’s hard to say goodby. We had a lot of fun.”
Damphousse, 23, was the only Leaf to be named to the NHL all-star team last season. He has scored 118 goals and 211 assists for 329 points in 394 games.
Richardson, 22, is considered one of the league’s top young defensemen. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound player has accumulated 556 penalty minutes during his career.
Ing, also 22, played his first full year in the NHL last season. In 56 games, he had a 3.84 goals-against average.
At 20, Thornton was Toronto’s first choice in the 1989 entry draft and has played in only 33 NHL games.
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So, Toronto traded a 23 year old All Star forward for a goalie with publicized addiction struggles. The trade made their team better. The centerpiece of each side of the deal had a great career afterwards. Since then, the war on drugs has become an unpopular policy, and most provinces and states have voted to reduce enforcement of drug laws. On the other hand, I'm not sure where Minnesota stands on that, so that would be something for the Caps to look up if they really decide to make cap space by looking for a place to trade Kuznetsov. I'm pretty sure there's been public support for recreational drug use in the city where the GM who drafted Kuznetsov runs a team, but the cap would have to balance, short-term.
eta: the main point of this post isn't whether or not Minnesota is willing to part with Calen Addison to add an 84 point center who's had some ups and downs. The point of the post is that if Ovechkin wants a raise, under a flat cap, he's going to lose some good teammates. That means the team wins fewer games, opponents check Ovechkin more to try to hold onto leads, Ovechkin scores fewer goals, Ovechkin gets fewer trophy votes, Ovechkin gets fewer ad endorsements, and Ovechkin is less likely to get another championship or to break Gretzky's career goal scoring record. I think the point has been made. Arguing that the Caps are stuck with Kuznetsov this offseason is silly. They aren't. If Ovechkin wants Kuznetsov's cap space, he can have it, and Kuznetsov will be gone.