Just thought I'd have an early look at some possible off-season moves just after the deadline, open for discussion so if you're up for a read let's chat!
To start off, I really have to give Dubas a grade for his deadline acquisitions this year: A+.. absolutely great job addressing team needs without giving up anyone off the current roster. I'd argue it's an overpayment for Foligno, but when your team has a specific need and the market for that player is big while you also need a third team to retain salary to help make it work, it's going to be a big cost to pay. I'd rather give up a pick in an unknown draft than any current prospects who are further along in development any day. Also the fact the Columbus basically helped Toronto be able to take on more cap with the Riley Nash trade kind of says this was a "you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours" type of situation, so I don't mind it. Plus Nash should be a great addition for the playoffs and hopefully further on.
Let's hit the Seattle draft first: long story short, I see Kerfoot going to Seattle as something that benefits both the Kraken and the Leafs. For more details on this look at the "Vegas" trade where Vegas is just a place holder for Seattle.
I would normally go into some draft pick predictions here, but Toronto doesn't really have any this year because they're clearly all in so let's look at a draft day trade: Flyers were rumoured to be shopping Nolan Patrick hard in the week leading up to the deadline and I think he could be an ideal option for Toronto. Patrick's career has been plagued by injury since his junior days and hasn't lived up to his offensive potential in Philadelphia. Toronto is in need of centre depth throughout the organization, and a particular need is a right handed centre. Patrick is just that and someone who shouldn't cost an extremely high price to acquire. Toronto's medical staff and sports science team has been known as one of the best in the league for quite sometime and this is why I can see this as an ideal fit: Patrick comes in, Leafs medical team helps him stay healthy and then both Patrick and Toronto see the real offensive potential he has. Patrick has been a decently reliable defensive centre in the league so slotting him in at 3C works well while he develops behind Matthews and Tavares., In return, Philadelphia gets some draft picks and a defensive prospect that fits their play style. Eemeli Rasanen is a hulking defensive defenceman that shots right handed. Sound like what the Flyers need? While he likely won't be NHL ready next season, I don't think it would take much for him to get there. He's been bounced around between the KHL and European leagues a little bit so his ice time has been lower. His defensive, physical play style will fit Philadelphia better than he fits in Toronto's more offensive puck moving system. Philadelphia does lose some value here, but with Patrick's injury history and lack of performance (not to mention the Flyers shopping him hard), I don't see the market too high for him for an overpay.
Then comes the first day of free agency for signings and more moves: Dermott has been looking better over the last 2 weeks or so, but he's just losing his spot to Sandin who will need NHL time next season to prove what he is with only 1 year left on his ELC. I think there will be a small market for him, and LA seems to be a perfect fit for him. They were rumoured to be looking for a "serviceable left handed defenceman to play with Doughty" up till the deadline and Rob Blake has taken a more analytical approach to acquiring players. Dermott has had average analytics but has also believed to be an analytical darling. This opportunity would give Dermott his chance to prove he's a top 4 option, which he just won't get in Toronto. LA has a ton of offensive prospects, and Toronto will be in need of some with very few draft picks to own. Kasper Simontaival has very good puck skills and is the smaller, skilled type of player that Dubas likes. He was projected to be a high pick in his draft year, but fell after a poor season - seems like the exact type of player Dubas would look to acquire. Along with a conditional 3rd round pick, I see this a deal that works for both teams while Dubas and Blake add to a known trade history relationship.
Last but not least, free agency! I don't think it's realistic at all to see Toronto jumping on any of the big names available this year. They will retain Hyman - management loves him, Hyman loves the team, Hyman's from Toronto and grew up wanting to play for Toronto, I think there's a 0% chance he signs anywhere else. I also don't see him breaking the bank on a contract. He seems like the type of player to take a discount to keep the band together, but I think a good contract and player comparison is Connor Brown. Both play the same style and produce about the same but Hyman plays with much better quality of teammates compared to Brown so his production is higher. I see a deal that's a bit longer in term, but lower in AAV with a full no movement clause and a partial no trade clause as something that work for both sides. I don't see anything over $5M likely at all, $4.5M would be my highest offer, with a slight hometown discount it'll be closer to $4M IMO. After that, I see Andersen re-signing in Toronto for another "prove it" type of year. This year hasn't gone according to plan mainly due to injury, but I think Toronto is still his best shot to show he's still a top 10 goalie when healthy as long as he's willing to take a pay cut for 1 season. From there, depth needs will be the focus while keeping the core in tact. Jani Hapankää is a guy I personally like: reliable defensively but not much offence, could be a great partner for Sandin on the 3rd pair. I could also see Bogosian returning here if he's willing to take a pay cut, but wasn't thinking he would so I went with the cheaper option. Riley Nash I think will perform well in playoffs and Keefe has already said he likes him a lot since the bubble last season, so I could see Nash sticking around longer term than just this playoffs. From there, I'm sure many depth options similar to what were brought in this year will be brought in (Vesey, Thornton, Boyd, Lehtonen, etc.), the guys I've chosen are just guys I personally like that may be on the free agent list. I do think Joe Thornton decides to retire after this season, as he's proved relatively inaffective for the most part of the season.
Apologize for the long read, but leave a comment if you've made it this far.
This really comes down to either Kerfoot or Dermott being selected after I think Toronto protects the 8-1 option being: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie, Holl, and Campbell. As much as Dermott is the younger guy with more upside, he will be in need of a new contract and I feel like Seattle will have a ton of defencemen to select. Kerfoot offers a very versatile forward being able to play anywhere in the lineup and bring speed with some offensive ability while being reliable defensively. I feel like centres will be tougher to come by, so Seattle decides to go with Kerfoot after Toronto sweetens the idea of them taking him to help with their salary cap crunch with a minor league goalie that has some upside and a late round pick in a wildly unknown draft.
Seattle will take Dermott over Kerfott in my opinion. Not sure he would be the right fit for the Kings top pair anyhow, he's averaged 12 min per game this season and a max of 17 min, he isn't ready to take on the minutes of playing with Doughty (22-30min). The Kings will explore the free agency for with names like Murray or Elder being UFAs, before looking into trade options, but I don't see Dermott as a substantial upgrade over Anderson or Bjornfot who are still developing.
Seattle will take Dermott over Kerfott in my opinion. Not sure he would be the right fit for the Kings top pair anyhow, he's averaged 12 min per game this season and a max of 17 min, he isn't ready to take on the minutes of playing with Doughty (22-30min). The Kings will explore the free agency for with names like Murray or Elder being UFAs, before looking into trade options, but I don't see Dermott as a substantial upgrade over Anderson or Bjornfot who are still developing.
I honestly doubt Dermott is taken over Kerfoot because Seattle will have a lack of scoring options to choose from, so I feel like a versatile player that can score will be their choice. But I've also added compensation for Seattle to take Kerfoot in a good goalie prospect for Seattle to develop and a pick which seems fair for a toss up situation between Dermott and Kerfoot.
As for Dermott to LA, I think it makes sense. It allows LA to not rush their prospects too fast to a top pair and Dermott's skating would allow him to transition with ease to more minutes. The only reason why his minutes are lower in Toronto is because they've always had depth on the left side with guys that are just better, but I think Dermott is and always will be better than Anderson in my opinion and is better than Bjornfot right now but once Bjornfot develops more Dermott then turns into a very solid 2nd pair option. And the cost to get him is relatively cheap.
Edit: a further point on Dermott over Murray or Edler, it was reported that LA wanted a left handed defenceman under 27. Both Murray and Edler will be over that come free agency, any free agent will. I think the key think that Blake is looking for is a guy with team control, which is why Dermott would seem to fit them better.
I honestly doubt Dermott is taken over Kerfoot because Seattle will have a lack of scoring options to choose from, so I feel like a versatile player that can score will be their choice. But I've also added compensation for Seattle to take Kerfoot in a good goalie prospect for Seattle to develop and a pick which seems fair for a toss up situation between Dermott and Kerfoot.
As for Dermott to LA, I think it makes sense. It allows LA to not rush their prospects too fast to a top pair and Dermott's skating would allow him to transition with ease to more minutes. The only reason why his minutes are lower in Toronto is because they've always had depth on the left side with guys that are just better, but I think Dermott is and always will be better than Anderson in my opinion and is better than Bjornfot right now but once Bjornfot develops more Dermott then turns into a very solid 2nd pair option. And the cost to get him is relatively cheap
I get you, I like Dermott as a bottom-4 option, but Doughty is tired of playing with players who aren't supposed to be in the top pair (his primary partners over the past years have been: Mikey Anderson, Sean Walker, Ben Hutton, Joakim Ryan, Derek Forbort, Brayden McNabb, and like every rookie the Kings have tried to play). Andersen is definitely making some flubs, but he also has been impressive handling those minutes as a rookie and will ultimately be the ideal bottom pairing LD that I see Dermott as. Bjornfot and Roy just shut everything down, the Kings have been bleeding goals with those two gone, so I see them as the middle pair. That leaves the Kings needing a top-pairing left shot defenseman, if the Kings can get a top 3 LD out of this next draft they have their future guy and just need to sign a veteran for a few years until they are ready. If they do not find their guy, they need to throw the cap space (which they definitely have) or trade assets (which they also have) to get the right player. Byfield and Turcotte will be with the team next year, the rebuild is coming close to an end, and the Kings need a better defenseman than Dermott on the top line.
I get you, I like Dermott as a bottom-4 option, but Doughty is tired of playing with players who aren't supposed to be in the top pair (his primary partners over the past years have been: Mikey Anderson, Sean Walker, Ben Hutton, Joakim Ryan, Derek Forbort, Brayden McNabb, and like every rookie the Kings have tried to play). Andersen is definitely making some flubs, but he also has been impressive handling those minutes as a rookie and will ultimately be the ideal bottom pairing LD that I see Dermott as. Bjornfot and Roy just shut everything down, the Kings have been bleeding goals with those two gone, so I see them as the middle pair. That leaves the Kings needing a top-pairing left shot defenseman, if the Kings can get a top 3 LD out of this next draft they have their future guy and just need to sign a veteran for a few years until they are ready. If they do not find their guy, they need to throw the cap space (which they definitely have) or trade assets (which they also have) to get the right player. Byfield and Turcotte will be with the team next year, the rebuild is coming close to an end, and the Kings need a better defenseman than Dermott on the top line.
I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that with what Blake as said (wanting a guy for that spot that's under 27) it doesn't seem like any free agent is the target. Seems like he wants team control. I think Dermott will flourish with more minutes and with a better partner, he's never had either of those in Toronto. Doughty offers him the best partner he's ever had and with Dermott's skating ability I think they would be a perfect fit. & again, it comes at a low cost of a 3rd and a C+ prospect that LA can still draft a guy this year, wait for them to develop, and then trade Dermott for something else (likely more than a 3rd and a C+ prospect) and it helps their rebuild in many different areas.
I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that with what Blake as said (wanting a guy for that spot that's under 27) it doesn't seem like any free agent is the target. Seems like he wants team control. I think Dermott will flourish with more minutes and with a better partner, he's never had either of those in Toronto. Doughty offers him the best partner he's ever had and with Dermott's skating ability I think they would be a perfect fit. & again, it comes at a low cost of a 3rd and a C+ prospect that LA can still draft a guy this year, wait for them to develop, and then trade Dermott for something else (likely more than a 3rd and a C+ prospect) and it helps their rebuild in many different areas.
They tried the budget option with Maata, they will swing for the fences in the offseason, Blake is looking for a top-pair left shot dynamic and scoring defenseman under 25. They mean a player like Dahlin or Werenski, not Dermott. The Kings are open to moving one of their big three centers + to get the right guy. It may happen if the Kraken select Clague for depth, but I sense the Kings have more ambitious plans for Doughty's future partner.
Even with the rumor of Patrick being shopped I think they're shopping him as a main piece or one of the main pieces in a bigger to address an immediate defensive need or another top 6 forward I don't think they're ready to move him for picks and prospects at this point I'm sure they're getting feelers on if other teams can buy into him having a high potential to make an upgrade to the team. Other things would obviously be added to the trade
Disagree on moving Dermott and dont think Andersen will be back.
With Rielly UFA status looming, one of Dermott OR Sandin need to transition to next level
I like some of the adds here, I agree Seattlewith take Kerfoot ad other teams will have better D choices.
Patrick is interesting idea, I'm worried whether he is even NHLer anymore, if he is dont Flyers parting with him.
If he isn't, his value is way lower than this.
I am Engvall believer but we may need a new winger or C on that 3rd line to put with Mikheyev and him.
Was originally hoping acquire Laughton and extend him but that dream is dead.
Disagree on moving Dermott and dont think Andersen will be back.
With Rielly UFA status looming, one of Dermott OR Sandin need to transition to next level
I like some of the adds here, I agree Seattlewith take Kerfoot ad other teams will have better D choices.
Patrick is interesting idea, I'm worried whether he is even NHLer anymore, if he is dont Flyers parting with him.
If he isn't, his value is way lower than this.
I am Engvall believer but we may need a new winger or C on that 3rd line to put with Mikheyev and him.
Was originally hoping acquire Laughton and extend him but that dream is dead.
I think Sandin is more set up better with his skill set to take Rielly's spot if he leaves in free agency, which I don't think he does but it's still a possibility. Dermott is a more defensive guy than Rielly's offensive style of game and Sandin has that offensive upside. I think they need to get Sandin all the ice time they can before Rielly has the chance to leave to see what he is, and that leaves Dermott without a spot. Do him a solid and give him a chance to play bigger minutes on an up and coming team where he can still have success.
Patrick being an NHLer I don't think is a question, he has the skill to be dominant but it just might not be in Philadelphia. His injury history is a major concern and my thinking was that with Toronto's medical staff being one of the better ones in the league, they may be able to help him stay healthy and revive his career. I don't see Philly holding onto him and see it as a change of scenery type of situation for Patrick and a no lose type of situation for Toronto because Rasanen won't make it in Toronto, he doesn't fit their style, and the pick is whatever Philly makes of it. Patrick was a dominant junior player and if he can find his game again, Toronto would get that for a 3C and eventually once Tavares moves to the wing later in his career, Patrick can take the 2C spot if it works out. If it doesn't well Toronto has prospects ahead of Rasanen and the 2nd should be late anyways.
I think Andersen comes back on a cheap deal to prove he still has it. He's good buddies with Matthews and Marner so I'm sure he'll welcome it and Leafs management has been high on him when he's healthy so if they can get him back below his previous cap hit on a short term deal, I think they'd jump on it. There's not really any better options on the free agent list and trading for anyone would probably cost too much
I think Sandin is more set up better with his skill set to take Rielly's spot if he leaves in free agency, which I don't think he does but it's still a possibility. Dermott is a more defensive guy than Rielly's offensive style of game and Sandin has that offensive upside. I think they need to get Sandin all the ice time they can before Rielly has the chance to leave to see what he is, and that leaves Dermott without a spot. Do him a solid and give him a chance to play bigger minutes on an up and coming team where he can still have success.
Patrick being an NHLer I don't think is a question, he has the skill to be dominant but it just might not be in Philadelphia. His injury history is a major concern and my thinking was that with Toronto's medical staff being one of the better ones in the league, they may be able to help him stay healthy and revive his career. I don't see Philly holding onto him and see it as a change of scenery type of situation for Patrick and a no lose type of situation for Toronto because Rasanen won't make it in Toronto, he doesn't fit their style, and the pick is whatever Philly makes of it. Patrick was a dominant junior player and if he can find his game again, Toronto would get that for a 3C and eventually once Tavares moves to the wing later in his career, Patrick can take the 2C spot if it works out. If it doesn't well Toronto has prospects ahead of Rasanen and the 2nd should be late anyways.
I think Andersen comes back on a cheap deal to prove he still has it. He's good buddies with Matthews and Marner so I'm sure he'll welcome it and Leafs management has been high on him when he's healthy so if they can get him back below his previous cap hit on a short term deal, I think they'd jump on it. There's not really any better options on the free agent list and trading for anyone would probably cost too much
Agree on Sandin better internal candidate to Rielly's spot but dont want to part with Dermott.
If someone wants blow us away with offer, maybe, but this ain't it.
I see what your saying about Payrick RE Leafs medical staff, I just dont feel Flyers part with him if can play at NHL level even a 3rd line role.
Andersen is 30+, there are a lot of teams needing goalies, some needing 2. At minimum he asks for what he is making now even on a 1 year deal.
If he was younger, sure makes sense to sign less money to show hes got it.
If hes healthy, he is probably a starter in this league still.
I think Andersen comes back on a cheap deal to prove he still has it. He's good buddies with Matthews and Marner so I'm sure he'll welcome it and Leafs management has been high on him when he's healthy so if they can get him back below his previous cap hit on a short term deal, I think they'd jump on it. There's not really any better options on the free agent list and trading for anyone would probably cost too much
I don't mean to offend anyone but I don't care who is friends with whoever. Andersen has yet to prove he make clutch plays and ultimately win multiple playoff series.
Those things are important to where the Leafs are with this core group of young players and there's just not as much time left to let Andersen figure things out.
I'd like to keep Hyman, I'm just not sure how realistic it is.
As for Sanding, I hope he can be Rielly's replacement some day but how about he first become regular on this roster?
Next season if he plays 3rd pair minutes and looks good doing it, great, it's a stepping stone.
He has to show he has that upper body strength to handle the roughness of the NHL.
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