rangers say no to any package involving buch without holloway

no thanks - signed the Detroit Red Wings

Holland said he isn't trading this years 1st.

You pay us for taking Neal...a lot. We don't give you anything in return.

Thats fair I guess. Again, wasn't sure if he was even available.



For a rental. He wants long-term value out of that pick. To me that suggests a player with term or downgrading it for additional picks.



Given how much cap space and cash dollars are being traded for, this represents equivalent value. I'll break the math down for you if you want, but refrain from acting like Detroit gets nothing out of this deal. It's laughable.

I approve of everything. Trading Neal with retention makes sense. Some people want to dump Neal, some people want to buy him out. Trading him with $2m retained meets in the middle. I also think we might need to trade for the right fit in the top 6, Buchnevich would be great if Holland managed to add him

Not interested in your "math". It's 11.5 million in cap over two years for a useless player, in a covid world. There is NO "math" that gets you out of that contract that easily.

It's $7.5M over two years: Edmonton's retaining $2M per year. To the consideration of the draft pick values, please look to this: https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

Edmonton's #20 pick has a value of 14.44. The #48 pick has a value of 4.48 and the #52 pick has a value of 4.43. Simply downgrading Edmonton's first creates a deficit of 5.53, which is close to the value of the #34 pick. Detroit has two options: give up their own 2nd rounder or bridge that gap in value elsewheres. Personally, and statistically, those 3 seconds are more likely to produce an NHL player than the Oilers 1st and giving 3 picks away for one doesn't make a lot of sense either. So what kind of negative value can Edmonton send instead? Bad cap. It's a very easy connection.

With Edmonton slated to retain $4M over the remainder of the contract, Neal is left owed $7.5M. If we use Marc Staal as a reference, his owed cash of $3.2M was worth the #48 pick that the Rangers sent. If $3.2M is thus worth a draft pick value of 4.48, then the algebra follows that Neal's remaining $7.5M is worth a draft pick value of 10.5. This value closely approximates the #30 pick and thus makes sense: players like Neal often require a first round pick to be rid of, and teams are more apt to burn a late first to do it.

Adding Neal into this trade creates a swing in deficit value and we're now looking at Edmonton needing to make up a draft pick value of 4.97. I bridge this value with Ty Tullio and Edmonton's 2022 3rd Round Pick. I find it reasonable to assume that the strength of the draft class cancels out any chance Edmonton has of that pick being higher than this year's equivalent and I assume the value of pick #82, 2.38. Mathematically, the deficit now stands at 2.69, equivalent to pick #72. Between the value of Ty Tullio (who ranked much higher than where he went in last year's draft) and any possible value Neal may provide the Red Wings over his final two seasons, this trade should be considered mathematically fair.

Because of the Red Wings' salary situation, your allusion to his being useless in a Covid cap situation is incredibly redundant. The Red Wings will not be a team looking to get near the cap ceiling, and instead, due to the value of ELC contracts will be much closer to the cap floor. There's more than enough room here to accommodate Neal, even if it means burying him or buying him out. There is no overlap with any upcoming major contracts, and if anything gives the Red Wings a live body to ice and keep a developing prospect in (hopefully) a more positive environment in Grand Rapids.

I don't personally care for your feelings: the deal is sound whether or not you like the idea of taking on 2 years of Neal at sub-$4M per. The Red Wings walk away with a higher quality prospect and Edmonton finds draft quantity and a way out from under most of Neal's deal. Both sides win.

Funny how I said I wasn't interested in your math and you shared it anyway. The Wings got a fourth round pick for 250,000 in salary. You do the math.

Mostly because I find your stubbornness amusing. For the record, Detroit retained $1.0625M of Savard's deal, not $250,000. Now that you have asked me to do the math...

I took the opportunity to graph out six known points of data that we have available to us:

$0 in retained salary means no additional pick is exchanged, and thus 0,0 must be a point in our graph (this is more of a mathematical thing but it makes sense).
The TBL 4th Detroit got in exchange for retaining $1.0625M is currently 126th overall, DPV of 0.91
I'm approximating the 2022 BUF 5th SJS got for retaining $1.125M to be 129th overall, DPV of 0.90
The TOR 4th SJS got in exchange for retaining $1.375M is currently 123rd overall, DPV of 0.92
The NYR 2nd Detroit got in exchange for Marc Staal's $3.2M is currently 48th overall, DPV of 4.48
TOR sent its 2020 1st to dump the cap hit*** of Marleau in exchange for what was supposed to be the #18 pick, DPV of 16.87, and would have been save for the play-in round. Circumstance aside, making this distinction is important.

I must add as a caveat, I have assumed the values of the AHL players San Jose moved as part of this deal to be worth the same as the last pick in the draft (DPV = 0.44). This is the lowest value we have available to correlate to these players, and despite how little they're worth, they still have value.

This results in the 2nd order polynomial trendline equation of Pick Value = (4E-13)*salary^2 + (3E-7)*salary , which mathematically behaves similarly to the graph of draft pick values: higher salary equals higher pick value. This equation has an R-squared value of 0.9976, suggesting that it's following the data we're working with *very* closely.

I have to admit that in order for the trade to work as I've proposed, the Red Wings will buy Neal out. If he's such a drag as you're assuming, this is probably the most optimal choice for both clubs as he'd only be in the way of a prospect possibly playing for the Red Wings. If we consider the business end of things, it's the more cash-effective option for the Red Wings too. Not buying Neal out pushes the DPV up to around 25: this makes less sense for Olympia Holdings and the Oilers. The extra $2.5M is an expense the Red Wings' organization doesn't need, and Edmonton doesn't have the horses to accommodate that kind of dump.

Thus, if I test this equation against the Red Wings buying out a retained Neal's remaining $7.5M ($5M spread over 4 years), that formula spits out a value of 11.5. There's a minor discrepancy with my more linear value of 10.5, but only to the tune of 1.00 (approximately Pick #113).

The solution here is I add another low-end prospect to the trade and we're done with it all. The Oilers are currently shy on picks, so it's that or a 2023 pick. Your choice. It's nowhere near as exorbitant a price as you're making it out to be.

I do however, appreciate you keeping me honest. A linear comparison across Staal and Neal's salaries was too simplistic of an approach and this does add a more "realistic" approach.

Yzerman doesn't have to accept anything from you. Also i noticed that you didn't prorate the salary retained in the Savard deal so it fit your narrative better. Christ Detroit gave you a precedent when they got either a first or a second (depending on how you view it) for taking two years of Richard Panik. And you don't have Seattle as an outlet because they're asking for a first and a good prospect for taking the player you want them to and I guarantee they charge you more for Neal. No my friend I'm afraid you're stuck with him because obviously you haven't come to terms with the cost. But hey I don't have to argue with you about it. I can just sit back and watch it unfold, Have a nice day.