Protect Dunn

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: A_K

Team: 2021-22 St. Louis Blues

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 17, 2021

Published: Jun. 17, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

With the current roster and predicted protection list, Dunn is the obvious choice for Seattle.

Too many times, I see people saying "rather than lose him for nothing", which isn't entirely accurate. However in the case of the Blues, I think it's true; it actually is better to trade him if they're not going to protect him.

You have to consider the next-best option for Seattle if you're saying "don't lose him for nothing". For example, if the Avs trade Graves for cheap rather than lose him for "nothing", then they potentially lose Donskoi too, who is probably similar in value/importance to the team. They don't need to trade, just brace for replacing one guy. The Blues would lose one of Barbashev/Sanford/Blais/Mikkola/Walman if they trade Dunn prior to expansion. The value they could get for Dunn is more than any of these guys have, at least in my opinion.

So moving Dunn for a pick somewhere between 20-50 - I won't argue about exact value because that comes down to what any single GM is willing to pay - makes some sense. Personally, I'd rather see the Blues play chicken with Seattle and leave some big contracts exposed (Krug, Faulk, Binnington(!)). They don't have many young guys as it is, and losing Dunn will hurt more than I think people realize. He has the 2nd-largest production amongst all STL d-men in the last 3 years behind Pietrangelo. He's in the top 40 of all defensemen in 5v5 scoring rate over 3 seasons. Analytically, he is in elite company despite having a bit of a rough season this year - https://twitter.com/CJTDevil/status/1404436624721813513.

In this armchair, I'm ok with exposing Krug and seeing if Seattle takes him. He costed nothing to acquire, and his 6.5m cap hit can be used in better places than LHD where the Blues should give more faith to the younger puck-moving guys in the system.

In summary, the Blues should either trade or protect Dunn. My opinion: protect him, try to gamble on getting cap flexibility, and use the cap space to add some two-way forwards that would lead to better chemistry in the forward lines.

Note: trading Krug and losing a different player to Seattle is also a possibility, probably one that gives more net value to STL, so what I'm showing would be the worst case based on my protection list of:
ROR, Tarasenko, Perron, Schenn, Kyrou, Thomas, Sundqvist
Parayko, Faulk, Dunn
Binnington

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dunn, Vince	6	$4,000,000
Barbashev, Ivan	2	$1,800,000
Joshua, Dakota	2	$900,000
Kyrou, Jordan	2	$2,500,000
Thomas, Robert	2	$2,500,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan	5	$6,000,000
Coleman, Blake	4	$4,500,000
Raanta, Antti	2	$2,500,000

Trades

STL

SEA

Krug, Torey

STL

2021 5th round pick (TOR)

TOR

Sanford, Zachary [RFA Rights]

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$71,407,182	$306,349	$425,000	$10,092,818

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Coleman, Blake $4,500,000$4,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 6	O'Reilly, Ryan $1,875,000$1,875,000 C UFA - 2	Perron, David $4,000,000$4,000,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, C UFA - 8	Schenn, Brayden $6,500,000$6,500,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 7	Kyrou, Jordan $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW UFA - 2
Kostin, Klim $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) LW, RW RFA - 1	Thomas, Robert $2,500,000$2,500,000 C, RW UFA - 2	Tarasenko, Vladimir $3,750,000$3,750,000 RW NTC UFA - 2
Blais, Samuel $1,500,000$1,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Barbashev, Ivan $1,800,000$1,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 2
		Sundqvist, Oskar $2,750,000$2,750,000 RW, C UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Dunn, Vince $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Parayko, Colton $5,500,000$5,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Binnington, Jordan $6,000,000$6,000,000 G NTC UFA - 6
	Faulk, Justin $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD NTC UFA - 6
Scandella, Marco $3,275,000$3,275,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Bortuzzo, Robert $1,375,000$1,375,000 RD UFA - 1	Raanta, Antti $2,500,000$2,500,000 G UFA - 2
Walman, Jake $725,000$725,000 LD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Clifford, Kyle $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW UFA - 1
MacEachern, Mackenzie $900,000$900,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Mikkola, Niko $787,500$787,500 LD UFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Joshua, Dakota $900,000$900,000 ($0$0$0$0) LW UFA - 1
Santini, Steven $750,000$750,000 ($0$0$0$0) RD UFA - 2
Perunovich, Scott $925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0) ($1,300,000$1M) LD RFA - 1
Husso, Ville $750,000$750,000 ($0$0$0$0) G UFA - 1

Jun. 17, 2021 at 1:48 p.m.

Ragsandbluesfan

Rangers 2023

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 19,044

Likes: 5,430

Rather keep Schwartz than sign Nuge

Jun. 17, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.

Dman9911

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 44

Likes: 14

I hope for that term and dollars. The oilers. Would keep Nuge.

A_K liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 1:50 p.m.

A_K

Thread Starter

Lets Go Blues

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 6,800

Likes: 4,346

Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan

Rather keep Schwartz than sign Nuge

Doesn't really matter to me. Similar players, Nuge gives a little more versatility and would bring in a little new energy which I think the team needs.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 1:52 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,478

Likes: 23,224

Agree with your theory about exposing both Krug and Faulk. If one is selected you have over 6m for a replacement. If not selected you have in effect protected 5 eligible Dmen.

A_K liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 1:56 p.m.

ggha777

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,587

Likes: 743

If that's the case I think STL will look to trade Krug instead of getting nothing for him

A_K liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 1:57 p.m.

Ragsandbluesfan

Rangers 2023

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 19,044

Likes: 5,430

Quoting: palhal

Agree with your theory about exposing both Krug and Faulk. If one is selected you have over 6m for a replacement. If not selected you have in effect protected 5 eligible Dmen.

I would protect Faulk if Parayko doesn't have an extension

A_K liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:05 p.m.

PeterK

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 712

Likes: 162

If they know they can make Parayko stick around then expose Faulk and keep Krug. Krug is excellent, Faulk, is just good.

A_K and Chopper02 liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:08 p.m.

A_K

Thread Starter

Lets Go Blues

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 6,800

Likes: 4,346

Quoting: PeterK

If they know they can make Parayko stick around then expose Faulk and keep Krug. Krug is excellent, Faulk, is just good.

Partly agree with this, but dunn and Walman and hopefully Perunovich are better replacements for Krug than anything internally to replace Faulk if he is moved. Either contract would be nice to move though, krug or faulk. Maybe not in the short term, but this might be the only time they're somewhat moveable 😬

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:09 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,478

Likes: 23,224

Quoting: ggha777

If that's the case I think STL will look to trade Krug instead of getting nothing for him

They can look to trade but Krug has NTC, and teams almost have to trade cap back to St Louis. I never understand the statement "getting nothing for him". It's the 6.5m X 6 in cap space for other players that St. Louis will get in place of Krug.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:12 p.m.

#10

Blues4Life

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 244

Likes: 42

I actually really enjoy this idea. We have sooo many undersized LHD - Dunn, Krug, Walman, Perunovich. Not even to mention Scandella (overpaid) and Mikkola (hopeful Scandella replacement).

Would love to get out of Krug's $6.5m salary for the next 6 years and trust the young guys. Spend $$ on wingers. ROR, Schenn, Thomas, Barby/Sundquist is great down the middle. Need some scoring wingers outside of Perron and Kyrou (and if Vladdy ever returns to form)

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:21 p.m.

#11

bhavikp27

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 12,608

Likes: 5,467

No way they expose Krug.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:26 p.m.

#12

A_K

Thread Starter

Lets Go Blues

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 6,800

Likes: 4,346

Quoting: bhavikp27

No way they expose Krug.

You're right, I don't think they'd do it. But considering the areas of strength/weakness of the team, it isn't a terrible idea. Could use that cap flexibility to sign a winger for the ROR line and a quality backup goalie, and moving those minutes from Krug to Dunn is hardly a step down, if at all. It was puzzling to me why they thought they needed that contract right when Krug signed it. The obvious answer is because they don't like Dunn. My question here is, why not?

bhavikp27 liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:36 p.m.

#13

papishark

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 8,800

Likes: 3,226

Dunn will be traded. I know people on here have a spasm when he is, but he will probably get like a second back

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:40 p.m.

#14

bhavikp27

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 12,608

Likes: 5,467

Quoting: A_K

That, I can't answer you.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 2:40 p.m.

#15

A_K

Thread Starter

Lets Go Blues

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 6,800

Likes: 4,346

Quoting: papishark

Dunn will be traded. I know people on here have a spasm when he is, but he will probably get like a second back

I think you're right, and probably not the worst thing that could happen for the Blues, although I'm sure whoever gets him will be happy with the price they paid.

papishark liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 3:42 p.m.

#16

Chopper02

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 6,470

Likes: 1,982

Been saying this for awhile, Blues should leave one of Faulk or Krug exposed. It only makes sense and I don't even see Seattle taking either of them. Too much money off the bat. I do think the Blues could get a late 1st for him in this draft though.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 3:47 p.m.

#17

Chopper02

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 6,470

Likes: 1,982

Quoting: A_K

If they never traded for Faulk, they never would have signed Krug and Petro would stay a Blue like he should have. I get Armstrong doesn't like NMC, but he gives out NTC like they're candy. The fact is Armstrong is paying two players 13 mil per year what he could have paid Petro $8 mil to do both jobs and more successfully. Armstrong has done some really great things and some giant head scratchers...this whole saga is a head scratcher.

A_K liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 4:23 p.m.

#18

A_K

Thread Starter

Lets Go Blues

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 6,800

Likes: 4,346

Quoting: Chopper02

Krug and Faulk 13m total til they're too old to hold up their end of the bargain vs Dunn and Petro 13m total while Dunn plays on that contract through his prime and Pietrangelo ages like a typical elite d-man tends to do.

It was always a no-brainer but Armstrong sure galaxy-brained it with the Faulk trade. He had to know something we didnt. Maybe it really was just the silly NMC thing who knows.

Chopper02 liked this.

Jun. 17, 2021 at 10:28 p.m.

#19

RClay321

Joined: Mar. 2020

Posts: 1,311

Likes: 355

1. Krug will be just fine. People over reacted to Faulk last year and he was our best D-Man this year. Krug also plays the left side and there is no top end talent behind him there. Dunn is not a top pairing Dman, moving him for a 1st if they can is the best option. Krug still had 32 pts in 51 games which is pretty damn good for a defenseman. A healthy Parayko next to him will only help
2. RNH is going to get somewhere around 7.5, no way he comes to STL where we already bury Thomas on the 3rd as far as center depth
3. 6.5 is not a crazy amount for a DMan, especially in a few years when the cap starts to go back up
4. Husso is perfectly fine being the backup, no need to spend 2.5 on another goalie
5. Tarasenko is the contract the Blues need to look at moving not someone from the D

Jun. 17, 2021 at 10:29 p.m.

#20

RClay321

Joined: Mar. 2020

Posts: 1,311

Likes: 355

Quoting: Chopper02

I think Seattle would take Krug in a heartbeat. Maybe not Faulk but they might. That is a bigger lose to me than losing Dunn

Jun. 18, 2021 at 8:05 a.m.

#21

Chopper02

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 6,470

Likes: 1,982

Quoting: RClay321

I think Seattle would take Krug in a heartbeat. Maybe not Faulk but they might. That is a bigger lose to me than losing Dunn

I think the opposite. I think they would take Faulk over Krug. Francis liked Faulk in Carolina.

Jun. 18, 2021 at 1:21 p.m.

#22

PeterK

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 712

Likes: 162

Quoting: Blues4Life

Krug was a get when they got him, shocked he lost his value so fast.

Jun. 18, 2021 at 2:50 p.m.

#23

A_K

Thread Starter

Lets Go Blues

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 6,800

Likes: 4,346

Quoting: RClay321

I could argue - with stats to back it up - that Dunn is fully capable of doing exactly what Krug does right now, and will be better at it and cheaper for the next 6 years. I'm not saying that Krug isn't good, I just think the Blues would be better set up without him for the next 6 years - something I've thought ever since they signed him to do Dunn's job. It doesn't matter what I think though, they won't trade Krug so soon after signing him and they won't expose him to protect Dunn, who they obviously have no interest in long-term. I'll never understand why they opted for these contracts that take guys to like 36 yrs old but we're too chicken to give Petro the contract he wanted... oh well.

2018-2021 at 5v5:
Dunn 17 G, 16 A1, 15 A2 = 48 pts (1.0 P/60), 53% xGF%, 0.23 RelTM xG+-/60
Krug 8 G, 17 A1, 22 A2 = 47 pts (0.97 P/60), 50.6% xGF%, -0.03 RelTM xG+-/60

Running an STL PP this season:
Dunn 5 primary pts, 7 pts in 72 TOI on 2nd unit
Krug 8 primary pts, 13 ts in 144 TOI on 1st unit

This season was easily Dunn's worst defensive season of his career so far and his EV GA/60 was lower than Krug's.

Btw Husso was complete garbage. His GSAx/60 was the worst of any Blues goalie in 5 yrs aside from a few games of the Chad Johnson experiment. I see no reason why they should give him the backup role after looking at the free agent goalies this offseason.

Shedding Tarasenko's cap might help but would look really dumb if he got back to being a 30 goal guy and we used the cap space on yet another long-term, too-high AAV deal for an aging, non-elite player.

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