I wrote a long post yesterday about how I felt the Leafs biggest weakness was their top 3 forwards being flawed in some way or another, but the text didn't save. Anyway, I want to talk about the John Tavares signing for the Leafs and how it has played out over time. For a lot of Leaf fans, the move will always be a no-brainer, while fans outside the fanbase saw the move as troublesome for the financial future of the team.
What nobody could've foreseen was the fact that in 2 seasons time, Tavares would have declined into a sub-replacement level player. It's really hard how this happened as the fall-off has been so quick. At the time of signing, John Tavares was regarded as a top 10 player in the NHL. During his career with the Islanders, he averaged 33 goals and 78 points every 82 games. If you consider the linemates he mostly played with, those are exceptional numbers. In my opinion, the signing was a no brainer at the time. He was well worth the money.
What I want to explore is how someone went from a 48 goal, 88 point season to only scoring at a 75 point pace, while being below-replacement in terms of play driving? He hasn't suffered from serious injuries over the course of the last 3 regular seasons. In fact, he's been very healthy. Sure, you can argue he's in his 30s, but most elite level athletes maintain their form in the early part of this decade. Plus the decline for Tavares began in 2019/20 when he was only 28. So what happened?
Something is not known by the public is that when Tavares joined the Leafs, he was 200 pounds. After that, he started to put on weight. Went to 215 in his second season and now he's at 220. We understand that athletes sometimes add muscle to enhance their performance, but Tavares was coming off the best season of his life. What did he need to change? It can only be said that his weight gain is due to poor discipline and not enough commitment to training. Cuz one thing we know for sure is that ever he started gaining weight, his performances have decreased.
The Tavares situation in my opinion represents a mentality issue with the entire team. Most of the players are not committed enough to training and improving their game, therefore, when they face an opponent that plays with more intensity, they get battered. The conditioning of the team is so poor. You can cherry pick specific players and make them the scapegoat but for me, the captain needs to set a good example for his teammates, which Tavares hasn't done. I know everyone likes to point at issues such as the defence, the forward depth, the goaltending. But just think about how different of a situation we'd be in if the Leafs top 3 players actually stepped up to the level they're capable of. vvv
Very unrealistic RFA and UFA signings. Hey don't like the Tavares signing fine, but it doesn't affect the salary structure of so many of the others players.
Very unrealistic RFA and UFA signings. Hey don't like the Tavares signing fine, but it doesn't affect the salary structure of so many of the others players.
Like my last ACGM, Brown and Hyman take discounts to stay in Toronto, same with Cizikas. My honest opinion is that if Marner never played with Tavares, he’d have a 60 point season into the RFA negotiation. And those types of players are worth 5 million maximum.
"It can only be said that his weight gain is due to poor discipline and not enough commitment to training."
He says like he has any actual clue in what he's talking about.
The Kyle Dubas fans have to understand that I’m not questioning his decision to sign Tavares. At the time of signing, it was the absolute right decision. But can you really say that you’re happy with the way Tavares has handled himself overall?
tavares is not a sub-replacement level player lmao
Based on his performance the past 2 regular seasons, he’s only worth 5-6 million. Maybe sub replacement level is a stretch, but he certainly hasn’t been good enough.
Why don’t you give some analysis? Why do you Tavares has done an acceptable job the past 2 seasons?
well first of all im not going to make hilariously terrible assumptions based on weights that are literally never accurate, and secondly he had 110 points and 45 goals in 119 games while playing a solid 30 of those with various stages of an injured hand.
if you think that is below replacement level then you are so lost you should probably google some directions
The Kyle Dubas fans have to understand that I’m not questioning his decision to sign Tavares. At the time of signing, it was the absolute right decision. But can you really say that you’re happy with the way Tavares has handled himself overall?
He had a great 2nd half last season, after taking longer than I would like to find his way playing with more defensive responsibility.
He's no longer an $11M player, but some of your analysis here, and calling him sub replacement level, completely sabotages any point you are trying to make, as those are completely ridiculous statements.
well first of all im not going to make hilariously terrible assumptions based on weights that are literally never accurate, and secondly he had 110 points and 45 goals in 119 games while playing a solid 30 of those with various stages of an injured hand.
if you think that is below replacement level then you are so lost you should probably google some directions
I admit, I didn't know he was playing injured. But now that I recollect, it does sound familiar. Now how do you explain his poor 2020/21 when he was healthy? I never said he was a below replacement level, I said his analytics during that period was.
He had a great 2nd half last season, after taking longer than I would like to find his way playing with more defensive responsibility.
He's no longer an $11M player, but some of your analysis here, and calling him sub replacement level, completely sabotages any point you are trying to make, as those are completely ridiculous statements.
To be honest, maybe I shoudn't blame Tavares for the Leafs' shortcomings. In the playoffs, he's been their best performer in terms of generating scoring chances both years.
I admit, I didn't know he was playing injured. But now that I recollect, it does sound familiar. Now how do you explain his poor 2020/21 when he was healthy? I never said he was a below replacement level, I said his analytics during that period was.
he didnt have a poor 20/21 he had 19 goals and 50 points in 56 games, tied for 50th in the league despite getting 2nd line ice time in a weird covid season.
and no, his analytics were not below replacement level, you keep saying stuff like that like you're half remembering a jfresh graph you saw 6 months ago. it simply isnt true and how the hell can you make a big ass post like this and not even know he was injured? like what happened? did you notice that the islanders under reported his weight 4 years ago and decided you needed to link that to some weird ass point that makes no sense?
To be honest, maybe I shoudn't blame Tavares for the Leafs' shortcomings. In the playoffs, he's been their best performer in terms of generating scoring chances both years.
Aside from having a bit of a slow start last year, there has been pretty well nothing to complain about with him.
Obviously his contract has some risk going forward, but that's really the only thing someone could point to as being a risk in signing him (no one could foresee the Pandemic leading to a flat cap).
It would have very interesting to see what have happened if we signed JT. Never would have traded for EK65. Impacted a lot of things in the league. I mean our cap would have been even more tight but that forward core would have been stacked.
well first of all im not going to make hilariously terrible assumptions based on weights that are literally never accurate, and secondly he had 110 points and 45 goals in 119 games while playing a solid 30 of those with various stages of an injured hand.
if you think that is below replacement level then you are so lost you should probably google some directions
Okay maybe not below replacement level. But explain to me how scoring at a 73 point pace is acceptable? Especially considering he played alongside the elite Nylander? I watched him for the whole season and he was puck-hogging, refusing to pass to his wingers.
It would have very interesting to see what have happened if we signed JT. Never would have traded for EK65. Impacted a lot of things in the league. I mean our cap would have been even more tight but that forward core would have been stacked.
That team might win the cup. Plus with all the picks we would gain we could add other peices at the deadline
IDK about the cup. Vlasic is a pretty bad defender nowadays, you probably should've let him walk and sign someone like Krug? Other than that, yeah this team is unstoppable.
Aside from having a bit of a slow start last year, there has been pretty well nothing to complain about with him.
Obviously his contract has some risk going forward, but that's really the only thing someone could point to as being a risk in signing him (no one could foresee the Pandemic leading to a flat cap).
I would still like him to be over a point per game considering the firepower we have to compliment him. And I think he has the ability.
IDK about the cup. Vlasic is a pretty bad defender nowadays, you probably should've let him walk and sign someone like Krug? Other than that, yeah this team is unstoppable.
This would have been 17-18 Vlasic so this would have been the first year of his new deal which he was good. Not elite but definitely not how is today. And he also would have justin Braun, go look at his number with and without Braun. It’s kinda insane how shutdown they were together
Saying that that defense could use a upgrade but that’s where those picks would be nice.
IDK about the cup. Vlasic is a pretty bad defender nowadays, you probably should've let him walk and sign someone like Krug? Other than that, yeah this team is unstoppable.
Okay maybe not below replacement level. But explain to me how scoring at a 73 point pace is acceptable? Especially considering he played alongside the elite Nylander? I watched him for the whole season and he was puck-hogging, refusing to pass to his wingers.
49 players in the entire league had more points total, 40 had more goals. In the entire league of near 1000 players. While getting 2nd line mins. How is that not acceptable?
He had 8 more points than Nylander and their other wing was one of Mikheyev, Kerfoot or galchenyuk who had a combined 52 points between them.
his production is more than acceptable
This would have been 17-18 Vlasic so this would have been the first year of his new deal which he was good. Not elite but definitely not how is today. And he also would have justin Braun, go look at his number with and without Braun. It’s kinda insane how shutdown they were together
Saying that that defense could use a upgrade but that’s where those picks would be nice.
Quoting: Klara
The contract was already signed the year before.
I had no idea Braun was that good, I saw his numbers after he went to Philly and they were decent but not spectacular. Maybe he is a guy the Leafs should’ve targeted to play alongside Muzzin.
I had no idea Braun was that good, I saw his numbers after he went to Philly and they were decent but not spectacular. Maybe he is a guy the Leafs should’ve targeted to play alongside Muzzin.
The advanced stats said vlasic was on a downward trajectory but trading Braun accelerated that process x5
49 players in the entire league had more points total, 40 had more goals. In the entire league of near 1000 players. While getting 2nd line mins. How is that not acceptable?
He had 8 more points than Nylander and their other wing was one of Mikheyev, Kerfoot or galchenyuk who had a combined 52 points between them.
his production is more than acceptable
And he is the fifth highest paid player. Btw, Galchenyuk and Kerfoot are fine players when given an offensive role. Overall JT is getting easier matchups with better linemates than his NYI days. Yet he is somehow performing worse? It’s just an indication that he hasn’t worked hard enough to maintain his form.
And he is the fifth highest paid player. Btw, Galchenyuk and Kerfoot are fine players when given an offensive role. Overall JT is getting easier matchups with better linemates than his NYI days. Yet he is somehow performing worse? It’s just an indication that he hasn’t worked hard enough to maintain his form.
and he produces like a top line player despite having junk thrown on his one wing. And if those players are fine given an offensive role then why did they only outscore tavares by 2 points together when they were all playing with him in an offensive role?
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