not sure i understand, sorry.

Ahh. Maybe that is different from what I thought then. If it's based on past transaction history, that's more open to interpretation. I'll see if I can find it tomorrow.

Maybe it's where 70% got at least a certain number of points-per-game average?

Basically, he's saying someone went over past trades involving picks and extrapolated values based on that information. Too tired to look right now, but if it's not what I was thinking before, it sounds like the values are derived from values attached to certain picks by the GMs themselves.

sorry, but i really don't think i understand.

That chart's outdated. in 2015 Boston Offered Columbus something around pick 15 + 2 seconds for pick 8. Columbus said no thanks, we need pick 13, 14, and 15 for pick 8. If everyone used that chart, they would have gladly taken pick 15 and 2 2nd rounders for #8.

Kevan Miller is available now. If you need a defensive defenseman to pair with a left handed offensive defenseman, he could be your guy.

Trade you neuvirth and Luke Schenn for Miller?

No I'm looking to give cap not get it. Plus is Neuvirth even going to be able to play again? If I have to keep Miller I'll probably lose him in the Vegas Draft, but if I trade him I need prospects or picks.

Let's negotiate on your Bruins GM chat page.

Yes Neuvirth is going to play again LOL! He had a sinus issue which made him faint basically. Neuvy and miller's cap is a wash but I would retain half of Schenn's cap and send you a 3rd

I've looked at several different studies this morning involving the value of draft picks.
One element that is pretty much consensus, is that the higher picks (Top 3, Top 5, Top 10, are the most significant drop off points, which isn't shocking).
In any case, it reinforces my original thought. You can't simply add the value of two picks in order to equal the value of a higher pick.
Once you get outside of the top 10, the value of a pick starts getting closer to a 2nd rounder than to first overall.
Outside of the top 20, you're closer to a 3rd rounder than you are to first overall.

If I can illustrate it in a very simple way ...
1st -- 2nd ---- 3rd -------- 4th --------- 5th ------------- 6th

The further away from 1st overall you get, the greater the difference in value between picks (more dashes)

But once you reach a certain point, the difference between the value of picks decreases. So once you get to 20th overall, it looks more like this ...
20th --- 21st --- 22nd --- ... --- 42nd -- 43rd -- 44th -- ... -- 61st - 62nd - 63rd ... until there is very little difference between them

So when you are trading between picks, in order to achieve fair value, you have to take the gap (number of dashes) between the picks into account, not simply the value of the pick itself.
When you compare pick #30 to pick #1, there are more dashes between those picks than there are between pick #30 and pick #90, which you can look at like this ...

1st -------------------- + ---- 30th ---------- 90th (where '+' represents the midpoint)
*Note, these are not accurate approximations, simply a rough sketch to illustrate a point


BUT

As I stated at the beginning, there are a lot of other factors. Trading up to get "your guy" or trading down to get more "kicks at the can", poor evaluations by GMs (especially historically, where "gut" and "eye" were more heavily weighted than analytics), the quality of the respective players involved in the draft, the overall depth and quality of the draft class, etc. etc. etc.

Anyway, I found the topic interesting and thought I would try to share.

I respect the amount of time and work it took to make that post.

1st of all - Yes, Neuvirth will be able to play again ... still know idea what happened at the Devils-Flyers game though.
2nd of all - If boston had got 8th overall, they might have fixed their defence! (Zach Werenski was 8th)
3rd of all - Wait, so is it how likely the picks are to get traded or how much someone thinks each pick is worth when trading for other picks?

This is more accurate than the other chart imo. Basically everyone is just going to need to do due diligence on scouting and go with their gut on when they think they should take someone. There clearly isn't going to be any way to tell anyone exactly what they should do all through the draft. They'll have to do things they think makes sense for themselves. It's a good sentiment to try to help everyone, but people are going to have to figure how much they want for each pick themselves. If they are on the clock and theres not someone they want right then, they can trade down for less than one would think and it'll still make sense. If they are selecting 5 picks away, but there is just one guy left they really really want, maybe they make an offer to move up and make sure they get their guy. This is all for fun and everyones going to do their best, but the value of each pick fluctuates based on all the different information being taken into consideration. If you really need something you'll pay more, if you don't need something at all, you'll pay less and if it's a wash you'll pay equal value. At the end of the day, the draft should be very enjoyable.

How much each pick is worth when trading for other picks.

Tarasenko 16th overall. Eric Johnson 1st overall.

Drops mic......

I'm not trading for a lottery pick because the top players in this draft are basically future 2nd liners. I think everyones missing the point that this is known as a weaker type of draft with no superstars in it. If I had pick #1 I'd be fine trading it for someone who was picked in the top 5 the last couple years. For example I'd trade #1 overall for Dylan Strome and feel it was fair. I'm not trying to talk down the value of the #1 pick, but in this year there is no McDavid, Eichel, Laine or Matthews. It's more like your picking from guys like Strome or Puljujarvi or Dubois who may end up as mediocre 1st liners, but look to be more like really good 2nd line players.

Victor Rask can be had for a top 4 RHD.

I'd take Rask if you retained 2 Million for Subban and Kevan Miller. In my opinion Kevan Miller has more skill than Adam McQuaid, who's my 2nd pair RHD. They are both great defensive guys. If you want McQuaid more you could have him instead.

As I said, a lot of other factors in play. Nobody has and probably never will, get drafting down to an exact science. The best you can do is take as much information as possible and try to raise your probability of making wise decisions using that information. I'm just trying to save everyone a few hours of reading and make more information available to them, in an easier to understand format.

I agree on the draft too. Of course it would be weak when I potentially have the #1 pick in this game.

Hischier may well be the best shot at a 1st liner in this draft, as the requirements to reach 1st line wing are a little lower than other positions, and there are more wing positions available league wide.
Patrick could potentially be one of the best 2nd line centers in the game. I think that's about his ceiling individually, but on a strong team he could perform as a 1st line center with higher end linemates.
Liljegren doesn't appear "destined" to be a top 2, but could surprise, and should at least make it into a top 4 role.

I think in weak drafts, you're better off with a quantity approach outside of the top 10. Trading down and making off the board selections should be more likely, so I'm interested to see how it works out. there's more likelihood in picks being exchanged for existing players as well. Teams with less interest in what they can get from the draft may be more likely to include higher picks in a deal for an established player.



30th and 39th traded for 22nd is a better example.

22nd: Tyler Biggs
30th: Rakell
39th: Gibson

There is no way I could or would retain that amount of salary on a player that outperforms what he is paid, no thanks.

Yeah, My goal was to trade my draft picks for instant help, but I'm actually ending up selling off players for picks. I just have too many players that are solid NHLers right now, but I've got young guys that need ice time soon. With the new signing of JFK i'm putting Ryan Spooner on my block. I am aware Spooner is currently better and light years ahead offensively, but I think my team is moving more towards trying to have a 3rd line that's as competent defensively as it is at putting the puck in the net.

Yeah I kinda figured that before you posted. I think I wrote you a proposal on your team page for Subban.

I have posted my reply.