Quoting: suburbanrobot
I mean...you are moving the goalposts. You said in your last post "Tkachuk Would not be the best player on the Blues roster". That's not correct and I cited a bunch of stuff to basically prove it out, though not sure I should have bothered because you dismissed it as sounding like an agent asking for more money.
So now that we have established that Tkachuk would in fact be the best player on the Blues roster, we get to the work of figuring out a fair deal for him. In this case, the proposal was basically Tarasenko and Thomas for Tkachuk (I'll ignore the rest to keep it simple).
Tkachuk would come with let's say 8x8.5 AAV.
Tarasenko has 1x7.5 and then is gone. Thomas has 1x2.8 but the Blues have team control thereafter. He likely either takes a deal like 8x6.5 (maybe a bit more) or a 3-4 year bridge deal at a slightly lower cost.
So your two options:
Scenario 1 (trade Tarasenko for pick+prospect): Thomas at 2.8 year 1 and ~6.5 for several more years, 1st round pick, mid-level prospect
Scenario 2 (trade Tarasenko + Thomas for Tkachuk): Tkachuk at 8x8.5
Then the question -- would you trade Thomas + a 1st round pick (Tarasenko return) + a mid-level prospect (Tarasenko return) for Tkachuk on a long term deal? I say yes, you probably say no. Either way, it certainly isn't a "ludicrous" play as you said in your first post.
Quoting: suburbanrobot
I mean...you are moving the goalposts. You said in your last post "Tkachuk Would not be the best player on the Blues roster". That's not correct and I cited a bunch of stuff to basically prove it out, though not sure I should have bothered because you dismissed it as sounding like an agent asking for more money.
So now that we have established that Tkachuk would in fact be the best player on the Blues roster, we get to the work of figuring out a fair deal for him. In this case, the proposal was basically Tarasenko and Thomas for Tkachuk (I'll ignore the rest to keep it simple).
Tkachuk would come with let's say 8x8.5 AAV.
Tarasenko has 1x7.5 and then is gone. Thomas has 1x2.8 but the Blues have team control thereafter. He likely either takes a deal like 8x6.5 (maybe a bit more) or a 3-4 year bridge deal at a slightly lower cost.
So your two options:
Scenario 1 (trade Tarasenko for pick+prospect): Thomas at 2.8 year 1 and ~6.5 for several more years, 1st round pick, mid-level prospect
Scenario 2 (trade Tarasenko + Thomas for Tkachuk): Tkachuk at 8x8.5
Then the question -- would you trade Thomas + a 1st round pick (Tarasenko return) + a mid-level prospect (Tarasenko return) for Tkachuk on a long term deal? I say yes, you probably say no. Either way, it certainly isn't a "ludicrous" play as you said in your first post.
I tried showing you that advanced stats isn’t the end of your discussion. I don’t think Tkachuk would be the best nor most talented now most valuable player on the Blues.
Kyrou, Buchnevich , and Tarasenko all have higher p/gp than Tkachuk. This isn’t a one category thing when weighing value to the team. When you factor in everything, cost, stats, team control, position, it’s fairly easy to say Tkachuk would not be the best player nor most valuable.
It’s ok if you disagree.
Yes I stand firmly by this proposal is ludicrous by a landslide.
If you spent time evaluating the Blues roster you would see this isn’t what they need at all. The most glaring need is a #1 LHD and it’s not close.
So I would propose not only are any of your options not realistic, they don’t address roster needs.
The correct offer is to trade futures for the LHD in Chychrun, Lindholm, etc..
The next move is to trade Tarasenko for a futures package after this year.
This would give a roster like the following in 22-23.
Saad ROR Perron
Kyrou Thomas Schenn
Buchnevich Barbashev Kostin
Brown Bozak Sundqvist
Chychrun, Parayko
Krug Faulk
Mikkola Perunovich
This is how Army builds rosters. It’s death by a million cuts instead of incredibly top heavy superstar teams like Edmonton etc..
I also disagree with your estimate of Tkachuk getting anything less than 9 million per season, but we’ll see