A few things for ya.

- Holl is not that much of a cap dump (if he really is one at all). A 2nd is way too much.

- Ellis is likely out for the season, which is one issue. The much larger issue is 1) Philly ain't retaining 19M over six years on Ellis - obviously. And even if they would, you have not paid for it at all. In fact, you haven't paid enough to get both of these guys without any retention. And would Philly even want to trade Ellis?

- Bill Armstrong will NOT be retaining on Chych, let alone 8+M.

So yeah, this all needs a re-think.

On what planet does Philly entertain such ridiculous retention for so little return? 🙄

1. idk he has been pretty brutal this year, at 2mill for a cap strapped team like us it will be hard to move maybe not a 2nd but i'd still say in the 3-4th range
2. i didn't realize that so thank you
3. he might if you overpay like i did

wdym it's an overpay?

First of all, you didn't over pay at all. You've underpaid. Secondly, no he's not. Not a dime. He'd lose his job on the spot.

it's only 3.5 Mill of retained money? yeah the 5 years sucks for philly but it's not the best contract in the world he won't be worth 6mill at 36 years old, Giroux will walk and want to come to his hometown team in the offseason so they get some assets atleast, Ritchie isn't a cap dump he just isn't working out here

who was the last player to get traded for 2 first round picks and a top 6 foward and a future top paring D man? Chychrun has only 11 points this year and is -27 he isn't having a good year. they should sell high

Justin Holl although not a top 4 defenseman has play just fine in a top 4 role and I mean just fine, not great, not bad but just fine.
I am however in favor of upgrading Justin Holl but I'm certainly not paying to remove his 2 million in cap only to replace it with another player who at that price will probably play just fine on Muzzin right side.
So the trick would be to use Justin Holl add a little value with a pick or prospect to attain a better suited Top 4 RHD which looking around the league there is very limited options and even less if you hope to acquire term or at least a controlled asset (RFA).

Josh Manson comes to mind but no term so high risk we have giant hole in the top 4 for next season with approximately 2 million to fill it so Justin Holl it is.

Holl's been pretty bad imho he is in for a bad giveaway once a game

3.1 mil a year in retained salary costs at least 2 firsts itself so Ellis and Giroux for a cap dump and 2 prospects DELUSIONAL!!!!!!

Yup he's also better suited for a third pair role not a top 4 and as I said at 2 million all you'll get is a player that plays just fine which includes a bad give away per game

Eichel didn't even get this type of return. 2 firsts, a second, "A" prospect and two roster players. How is this in any way shape or form an underpay?

You seem to have forgotten all that retention you;re asking for. That alone costs more than a late 1st. PLUS you've delayed the 1sts, so one doesn't come for over a year and one doesn't come for over two years. I mean, c'mon. Chych with no retention starts with a '22 1st and Sandin. And your "top 6 forward" has only one year of control before hitting UFA at age 28.

Just being real with ya, man. If somebody could have hoodwinked Billy boy out of Chych, it would have happened by now.

AGAIN, that conveniently leaves out the retention (the Eichel trade had none), which more than eats up well more than a late 1st by itself. Then there's the issue of the 1sts being delayed over one and two years, respectively. That ain't gonna fly for full value you'd get from a '22 1st. Then there's the issue that Armstrong explicitly said any roster player should be younger than those two.

You also acquired an injured defenseman who hasn't played in a year is aging and costs 3 x what Holl costs. If there's a deal with Philly it would be Dermott, Ritchie, the 2nd rnd pick to Philly for Justin Braun at 50% retained. Braun although not a true Top 4 can relieve Holl of some of that ice time and Dermott is much easier to replace next season and we already have plethora of LD in our system

Ritchie isn't a cap dump tho Marulu got bought out for more which was only 1st so your wrong, Ellis is only half decent now and Giroux will walk, these 2 propsects are like top 20 in the wrold rn not in the nhl

Change the picks, seeing as that Philly deal doesn't happen.

2022 first
2023 first
2023 second
Sandin
Kerfoot
Engvall

ARZ needs roster players, seeing as they have 6 total starting next season and need to be at the cap floor. Now they have 4 first round picks, that's without any other trades they make this year. 2 more firsts for the year after and another second. This is an underpay? Man, a lot of people on here are going to be stunned when they see what the actual deal looks like.

yes but its only 2mill retained lot's of teams retain 2mill it only adds like a 3rd to the trade value at most i added another 2nd

Nooo, it's 2.3M x 3, + just over 1M from this season. So right around 8M in total.

From a purely player control view, the leafs are losing a lot:

Sandin - 5 years of RFA cost control
Niemala - 8 years of RFA cost control
Three 1st round picks and three 2nd round picks in the next 3 years - 8-9 years of cost control each.

For 1 year of Giroux, 6 years of Ellis @50%, 4 years of Chychrun and not Holl.


Not arguing Giroux, Chychrun or Ellis' value this year, just that Sandin and Niemela for the next 5-8 years is a better bet to overperform their contracts. This would also free up those 6 picks to pursue impact players - Dubas' era of draft choices have been looking very good.

yeah but not on their cap tho

(sigh)

This definitely gets you closer, but YET AGAIN you are ignoring the cost of 8M in retention.

And whatever picks they already have is entirely irrelevant.

Huh? Of course it goes on their cap. Teams who retain pay for it twice. Real dollars and cap space loss. And 8M in retention costs more than a 1st.

Sigh? Come on man, this isn't that stressful.

The retention here is probably as a result of the OP's Philly trade, so forget the retention. TOR won't need it with Kerfoot and Engvall heading the other way. Remove the 2023 first and the retention. This isn't enough?

Close, but no, probably not. If only because other teams will top that offer.