Once a Kings Fan Too
Joined: Jun. 2018
Posts: 40,481
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Looking at the risk-reward ratio, I would do this as the Los Angeles GM.
From LA's perspective, what are the risks?
Risk #1: we make this trade, and Vilardi turns into the top-6 forward we expect him to be.
Risk #2: we make this trade, and the first-rounder turns into a first-line player in 2 or 3 seasons.
Risk #3: we make this trade, and Morrissey turns out to be a failure opposite Drew Doughty.
Loss from Risk #1 eventuating: minimal, since Vilardi isn't playing on the Kings now, but with Ontario
Loss from Risk #2 eventuating: minimal, since the draft pick almost certainly won't mature into an NHL player for a couple of seasons
Loss from Risk #3 eventuating: more than minimal, because we'll have lost the value of Vilardi and the pick, but that wouldn't be the end of the world
Reward: we make this trade, and Morrissey turns into the #1LD we've always wanted to be opposite Drew Doughty.
In my opinion, the chance of Morrissey turning out to be just what we need probably exceeds the chance of the 3 risks listed happening. So I'd do it.