no all around

oh boy. very productive feedback 👍

i think the value is pretty reasonable.

hes having a down year when you pull up his metrics, mainly due to not having a reliable partner, bc of the byram injury its been mainly Jack Johnson
also speaking of Byram, avs cant move Girard until he is healthy and fully recovered.

In terms of the value, if this was done during the offseason, I think a package built around Beauvillier and Mayfield makes sense, but I think the 2nd feels a bit too much. Its close, the value is there, the fit right now wiht uncertainties just make it hard

it would likely be a draft day trade. Islanders wouldn't feel very comfortable moving picks in future without protections because we could really place anywhere in the standings

Your values are in the neighborhood. However, I think Colorado needs Girard more than they need Beauvillier (at least in the immediate future), so the timing isn't right. The idea of including Mayfield makes it more intriguing, it I still don't think it happens until (1) Byram is healthy and seasoned, and (2) one of Barron or Helleson look as though they're ready for top four minutes.

as a draft day trade, I can see this type of move. Lets avs plan their cap accordingly and target probably another UFA Dman as well. Probably would help the Avs keep a few of their UFAs.
Its not a bad trade framework, I think its very realistiic

id imagine it being 2022 or 2023 draft. Likely 2023. Mayfield comes with an extension (maybe replaces Johnson if in 2023), Byram is ready for 2nd pairing minutes and you have Helleson, Behrens and Barron all waiting for minutes.

So Girard isn’t a cap casualty not at 24yrs old and locked in at $5M for the next half decade. Now are there options for the Avs to replace him internally? Absolutely. @coga16 hot on Byram’s health and until he is back in the line up 100% Girard isn’t going anywhere. But in the off season, you have the rough outlines for a deal to work. The first one is the closest I think but a little adjustment of the picks would be needed.

Trading the isles first round pick even straight up for girard is a fireable offense. It will never happen.

with 3 guys coming up on ELCs and needing to re-sign Mack and Toews in as few years, he is likely the odd man out. This would be an offseason move

for which side? he is worth about a mid first (10-15 IMO). To have a top 4 of
Pelech-Pulock
Girard-Dobby would be insane. probably best in the league. I would be ecstatic to move a first for him. And Beau has not been good this season

Oh I don’t disagree, I don’t know how COL gets Toews to re-sign for anything under $7M playing at his current rate and that’s a home team discount. Byram comes back healthy I could totally see them doing something like this.

For the isles. I think it's more likely the isles select in the 8-10 range. And even if they do pick at #12, I'd rather take the chance on a high end forward like Lambert/Nazar/Lekkermaki over Girard any day - and I don't think it's close.

If you think Beau hasn't been good, go look at bad Girard has been this season - and he has no excuses playing on a super team with a bunch of stars.

Girards biggest weakness is the powerplay, that's another reason isles should not trade for him.

I think a deal will more likely happen at 2023 draft. We dont need Beau and to have a top 9 of (in no particular order) Barzal, Wahly, Dufour, Nelson, Palms, Bellows, JG, 2022 Offseason UFA and Lee. While Barzal may be sad Beau is gone, Beau really has not done anything to help this team. Girard is having a "bad" year, but its still a 41 point pace without having a consistent linemate and he is only 23. Salo, to me, is going to be a great 3LD. Dobby needs a really good pairing and Girard can provide some offensive upside as he is poised for a breakout. And his term fits in perfect as we could have at that time Pulock for 7 more years, Pelech for 6, Girard for 4 and whatever Dobby is at then. Thats insane for one of the league's best top 4s. Then Salo/Aho?/Wilde?/Bolduc is literally sooooo good.

Since this is all at 2023 draft, he could very well have bounced back from his "down year" this season. And he really hasnt been bad, just not his elite self


EDIT: And I wouldnt even include a first and if we did it would be late 20s in 2023. More likely a 2nd and Beau and MAYBE another roster player like Koivula or something. nobody substantial

you sound exactly like a lot of isles fans who wanted Devon Toews traded - the isles definitely need Beauvillier, he's the only winger on the isles with elite skating ability who can create separation. Can't construct the roster with a bunch of slugs. Bellows will likely be traded and Dufour is 2-3 years away and his upside is a 3rd line power forward.

Beauvillier provides more value than Girard, I'm not sure why you think Girard is the better player. Beauvillier is analytically one of the isles best forwards over the past 3 seasons and arguably their most clutch playoff performer. The main reason Girard puts up points is because he can just give the puck to any one of the avs star forwards and they make things happen. Girard isn't poised for a breakout, if he goes to another team with less talent he's going to be an average 2nd pair D at best. He's a very mediocre defenseman.

Anthony Beauvillier, reportedly signed 3x$4.1M by NYI, is a two-way top-six scoring winger. #Isles pic.twitter.com/sWIbq1TW2K

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) September 1, 2021

Bro, he literally plays with Jack Johnson.

Toews, Makar, Macdonald, and Mcdermaids underlying numbers are good with Jack Johnson. Jack Johnson hasn't been a liability this season.

Source?

Naturalstattrick.com

I literally was pissed when we moved him. hes an elite player and was since his first career game.

And tbh I dont feel like typing it all out but I can if you really want me to. But to keep is short, Girard is valued at 6.3 million by the athletic, Beau is only 4.7. I cant SS the player cards which list all of the stats but Girard is elite just about everywhere EV and Beau really isn't anywhere. Beau is fast sure but he doesnt do anything with it. He wont ever get the chance with Barzal that could actually put his talent to use and he cant even do much alongside our best shooter and scorer. I really dont possibly understand where Beau is beneficial to this team. We cant hope that he will be used properly when Barzal isnt even used properly. Its crazy. Girard is also only having a down year because he hasnt had a single consistent linemate. His GAR (3.4), Off (3.9), xOff (3.0), xGAR (1.7) and more are all signifigantly below his career averages. Some are basically 1/5th of what he was at last season such as his xGAR (10.5) and xOff. The idea that his points just come from passes to Mack and then him doing all the work is crazy. Every Mack point is assisted by 2 of Rantanen, Landeskog and Makar. Basically never Girard

Beau-Nelson without Bailey on their line is analytically the most effective duo on the team. How are you posting analytics and then completely disregarding them saying Beauvillier can't do anything with his speed.

19-20 season here is how Beau ranked among isles forwards
xGAR: 2nd
GAR: 1st

20-21 season
xGAR: 3rd
GAR : 2nd

First of all, Dom's cards aren't really that good of an indicator of a players overall impact. He puts a ton of emphasis into points, players who are terrible at driving play but put up points still grade out well in his model.

Let's not make excuses for Girard, it has nothing to do with his usage. Last season looks like an outlier and he's regressed quite a bit. Is he going to be this bad next season, probably not. That being said, he's likely a pretty mediocre 2nd pair D overall on any other team. His impact on the PP, PK and penalty differential got worse and im supposed to buy that its because of not having a consistent linemate?

At even strength in the 19-20. 20-21 season Beauvillier had the better impact.

19-20 RAPM
GF/60: Beau (not close)
xGF/60: Beau
CF/60: Beau
xGA/60: Beau

20-21 season:
GF/60: Beau
xGF/60: Girard
CF/60: Girard
xGA/60: Beau

I thought Girard is just about elite everywhere? He's an elite skater and passer, but his impact isn't close to elite.

RAPM charts are 100% relative to the league mean (z score) which yeah sure is good but you need to take in a larger sample size. We can go back as long as we want and it wont really change much, but Girard has improved every year until now and he is only 23. Again, he is playing with new linemate every night.

If Trotz actually used Beau properly where he was with Brock and Bellows every night, 17-19 mins a night and had freedom to play a little more aggressive then I would say to keep him. But he is no better than Parise and we have to play into what Trotz is allowing them to play. Thats why Toews never succeeded. This is also all contingent on a Girard bounce back next year


EDIT: Also, according to that same chart but updated, Beau is now 30th percentile and Girard is 46th this year. 3 years, Girard is 87th and Beau is 78th. I think Beau could become a very solid 2nd liner if he was used properly. Truly I do. He has the skills to do it. But unlike Toews who was elite every single year, Beau has shown minimal growth and yeah its nice for him to just be underperforming, we cant assume itll just happen at 25

2 years is a pretty large sample size. Beau puts up these results on a team that struggles to score, Girard's results are boosted by playing on a superteam. Context is important.

You do realize that Beau has been stapled to Nelson over the last 3 years right? Beau plays an aggressive north-south game and has been one of the more underrated two way wingers in the game. It's kind of weird that you're ignoring the results put up from 2019-2021 and the fact that he's one of the most clutch playoff performers in The NHL over the past two seasons. Toews succeeded on the islanders, hes playing the same way on the Avs, the only difference is the Avs forwards capitalize on the chances he creates, which is why his point totals, GAR, and GF/60 skyrocketed. It's also funny how you're arguing that Beauvillier isn't used properly (which is not true) , but you have faith in Trotz utilizing Girard properly, Yeah im sure Trotz will love a 5'9 defenseman who gets knocked off the puck easily and does 5 spinorama's a game that lead to low percentage shots.

The confirmation bias in your argument is incredible. Beauvillier had two straight seasons in the 87th percentile , this years numbers drop his overall - but you don't want to talk about that because it doesn't fit your narrative. 87th percentile is a high end 2nd line forward.

Before his "breakout" season

Skeptical of WAR? That's fair. Take a look at this raw 5-on-5 data via @NatStatTrick. Same conclusion: Girard's a mediocre defenseman whose on-ice results are propped up by MacKinnon and whose reputation is propped up by fancy spinoramas.He's hipster Seth Jones. https://t.co/DKQd8uBdud pic.twitter.com/KmrYnl8zpd

— Patrick Bacon (@TopDownHockey) January 30, 2021

Two seconds for Girard *cries*