Edited May 14, 2022 at 10:06 p.m.
Matthews is the superior player, but he is 2 years away from free agency. He will require a max contract to extend. Additionally. he is 1 year away from his NMC kicking in. It has always been speculated that he would go to Arizona. Friedman had originally reported back when Matthews originally signed his extension, which at the time was higher than expected for the term, that the Leafs feared Matthews would get a max offer sheet from Arizona if he hit free agency. Could the fear of him leaving for Arizona inform this move?
Eichel has twice the term of Matthews. That alone will extend the Leafs window. They cannot trade Tavares due to his NMC. Nylander could be traded, but his cap hit isn't large enough to allow the Leafs to make any functional change. Marner "bleeds blue" and is unlikely to be lost to free agency in a few years. He also has more term than Matthews.
Vegas has always been about making whatever move makes them better, even if it comes at the expense of their relationship with their players. If any team is going to trade a player of Eichel's stature the same year they acquire them, it would be Vegas. Foley wants to win a cup, and he isn't getting any younger. Matthews is arguably the best player in the league. Even if he is gone in 2 years, with Mark Stone's back issues and huge contract, Vegas may have a much smaller window than originally anticipated.
The goalie swap gives Toronto a solid starter at a decent cap hit for next year while dumping Mrazek who has been a disappointment for them. Mrazek could backup the new starter in Vegas, Logan Thompson, who has all but stolen Lehner's job. Additionally, this trade is cap in/cap out for both sides, while dramatically changing both teams after disappointing ends to their seasons.
Trade details:
-Approx. cap neutral (Vegas increases their cap by 440k)
-Eichel = 4 years x 10M (NMC in July 2022)
-Lehner = 3 years x 5M (5 team no trade list, we'll assume he waives)
-Matthews = 2 years x 11.64M (NMC starting in July 2023)
-Mrazek = 2 years x 3.8M (10 team NTC, we'll assume he waives)
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