I'm a Fiala fan but he's not a guy you move Alex Holtz for imo

i don’t see the devils doing that

“There seems to be traction on HFBoards”

Not inspiring at all

Why is that? Is Holtz's ceiling that much higher than where Fiala is now? Or is your concern more around cost control?

I think he's got a lot more upside as a goal scorer than Fiala. He's 5 years younger, and I think he's going to have the better career when it's all said and done.

Statistically speaking, it’s more likely than not that Holtz does not achieve Fiala’s production. That said, it is close. I can see why people would rather keep Holtz. But it really boils down to risk tolerance. Holtz is by no means a lock to ever be as good - not even close.

Here’s a cursory look at how 7th OAs have fared (ie Holtz’s exact draft position:

The average ppg pace of all 7th to 9th overall forwards drafted from the past 30 yrs is 0.42. Fiala is at 0.68, on the upswing (could turn into a star in the next 1-2 years) and is only 25. If the trade is straight up Fiala for 7th overall... the Sens should do it.

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) May 14, 2022

Devils would rather keep the younger, cost controlled player

imo with bratt likely getting a big deal this offseason and hischier, hughes and hamilton all having them already, the devils shouldn't lock themselves into more massive contracts when they have a lot of good ELC talent. fiala for sure could end up being better than holtz ever will be, but since the devs aren't competitive yet, i feel like they should hesitate before signing another player to a big AAV deal.